Author Topic: Tesla New Vehicles  (Read 305 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #30 on: November 18, 2017, 08:51:52 am »
@TimG - if costs continue to fall, wouldn't that be a factor?
It will be very hard - if not impossible - for the cost of EV including battery to be much less than an ICE. The best that can be hoped for is cost parity. Convenience will be an important factor: especially once EV reach a point where queues at charging stations become unbearable. The longer charging time compared to ICE means fewer vehicles can be serviced per hour given the space available at a gas/charging station. This problem will be aggravated because the need to build out grids mean it is not enough to expand charging throughput by just building a new station - getting the permits to upgrade the grid and/or build the power stations needed to provide the power on demand (read: fossil fuel) will mean huge lead times. In the meantime, hellish wait times for the EV driver while the ICE drivers laugh at them after spending 5 mins refueling.

Offline MH

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #31 on: November 18, 2017, 08:53:41 am »
Well, obviously it would be a non-starter if the queues were like that anyway.  The market wouldn't support this.

Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2017, 09:07:03 am »
Well, obviously it would be a non-starter if the queues were like that anyway.  The market wouldn't support this.
Well that is my point. Everyone is focused on the ghee-whiz technology of the vehicles themselves but no one is thinking about what would happen if a large number of people started to use them. Keep in mind that the ICE was clearly superior to the horse in terms of performance. convenience and, after the Model-T, cost. This meant there was a financial incentive to build out the huge fueling infrastructure we have today. OTOH, EVs offer modest performance benefits, no cost advantages and come with large inconveniences. The same financial incentive for private business will not exist for EV infrastructure which will likely need to be heavily subsidized by governments. This immediately means the chances of the EV infrastructure being built a rate sufficient to match demand is near zero.

As I said before: in countries where voters can vote out politicians that make their lives miserable, the plug-in hybrid will be the universally acceptable compromise between emissions and the convenience.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2017, 09:10:07 am by TimG »

Offline MH

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2017, 09:09:44 am »
Well, people like shiny things.  If it means that we reduce carbon emissions via hybrids and get cleaner air to boot, then great.

Offline wilber

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #34 on: November 18, 2017, 03:04:58 pm »
I Find it interesting that TimG thinks trying to reduce the impact of CO2 caused global warming is a waste of time and has blind faith in our ability to develop the technologies required to mitigate its consequences, which he feels will be more cost effective. On the other hand, he believes  developing viable electric vehicles is beyond our capabilities.

I think plug in hybrids are an interim measure and it must be remembered that to take advantage of the efficiencies they offer, they must be plugged into the grid as well.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline wilber

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"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #36 on: November 18, 2017, 03:29:05 pm »
I Find it interesting that TimG thinks trying to reduce the impact of CO2 caused global warming is a waste of time and has blind faith in our ability to develop the technologies required to mitigate its consequences
<deleted to respect "no climate change" mandate for thread - in short my views on CO2/Adaptation and EVs are completely consistent>

On the other hand, he believes  developing viable electric vehicles is beyond our capabilities.
I also believe that developing a faster than light drive is beyond our capabilities. Is there a problem with that or you are do you really believe that any technology that you desire is "within human capabilities" just because you really really want it?

Note that I did say it was possible to go all EVs if the there was a large scale culture change where drivers learn to plan their days around their need to charge the EV. Such a culture change is more plausible than a charging station that can "fill" an EV in 5 minutes. I just don't think it is likely.

I think plug in hybrids are an interim measure and it must be remembered that to take advantage of the efficiencies they offer, they must be plugged into the grid as well.
Plug-in hybrids don't require the grid so individual drivers are not left stranded when the government inevitably makes a mess of the grid upgrade process. No one will care about EV efficiency gains if they need to get to work and the grid did not supply enough power to charge their battery.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2017, 03:34:17 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #37 on: November 18, 2017, 04:32:23 pm »
Well that is my point. Everyone is focused on the ghee-whiz technology of the vehicles themselves but no one is thinking about what would happen if a large number of people started to use them. Keep in mind that the ICE was clearly superior to the horse in terms of performance. convenience and, after the Model-T, cost. This meant there was a financial incentive to build out the huge fueling infrastructure we have today. OTOH, EVs offer modest performance benefits, no cost advantages and come with large inconveniences. The same financial incentive for private business will not exist for EV infrastructure which will likely need to be heavily subsidized by governments. This immediately means the chances of the EV infrastructure being built a rate sufficient to match demand is near zero.

As I said before: in countries where voters can vote out politicians that make their lives miserable, the plug-in hybrid will be the universally acceptable compromise between emissions and the convenience.

Of course they offer a cost advantage. Just look at the maintenance savings between 20 or so moving parts compared to 2000.