Author Topic: Tesla New Vehicles  (Read 305 times)

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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2017, 05:48:19 pm »
And the beauty of EV's is they get you from A to B without leaving a trail of poisonous gases in it's wake, they're quiet, and they have so few moving parts to take care compared to their ICE counterparts. That investor cash will certainly keep on coming, from tomorrow's wealthiest.

Well instead EV's are charged using power generated from power plants like coal and nuclear, among renewable sources.  So EV's aren't necessarily much cleaner...yet
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2017, 05:57:37 pm »
Well instead EV's are charged using power generated from power plants like coal and nuclear, among renewable sources.  So EV's aren't necessarily much cleaner...yet
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2017, 06:12:39 pm »
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.

Well at least in Ontario the Liberal gov has been so wasteful that they created far too much generating capacity than can be used so there's no problem there.  And there's no fossil fuel production in the province either, for better or worse.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2017, 06:13:24 pm »
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.

Well at least in Ontario the Liberal gov has been so wasteful that they created far too much generating capacity than can be used so there's no problem there.  And there's no fossil fuel energy production in the province either, for better or worse.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline wilber

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2017, 06:14:08 pm »
Of course makers are going to produce EVs. The question is whether people living in countries that let consumers choose will buy them. It won't be the first time that international companies provide different products to suit the requirements of different markets.

The EU bans will likely be watered down to allow hybrids as the deadline approaches and consumers realize that switching to EVs comes with a rather large convenience cost. 

It is worth noting that you could take all of the articles about biofuel/ethanol vehicles from 10-15 years ago, replace "biofuel" with "EV" and re-run the story. "Biofuels" went from being the savoir of the future to a footnote because the technology could not live up to the hype and people realized that the environment impact was, in some cases, worse than fossil fuels. Expect the same script to play out with EVs over the next 10-15 years.

Biofuels are just intended for use in current IC engines, they are not a new form of propulsion. Considering how far EV technology has come in the last 20 years, it is entirely likely that another 20 will make them much more viable and economical. Considering the history of human progress, I don't know how anyone could think that current IC engines are the pinnacle of propulsion systems that will never be bettered and replaced by other technologies.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2017, 06:23:54 pm »
Considering how far EV technology has come in the last 20 years, it is entirely likely that another 20 will make them much more viable and economical.
It is also possible that problems with EVs will not be addressed and they will remain the "technology of the future".

Considering the history of human progress
The history of human progress is trial and error. Not every technology lives up to the expectations when the tech is new and shiny. Nuclear fission and fusion power are good examples. Sometimes the downsides of a technology cannot be overcome with progress. The latest Star Trek installment seems to have set up a plot line that will explore this very point.


« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 07:10:10 pm by TimG »

Offline wilber

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2017, 07:11:56 pm »
It is also possible that problems with EVs will not be addresses and they will remain the "technology of the future".
The history of human progress is trial and error. Not every technology lives up to the expectations when the tech is new and shiny. Nuclear fission and fusion power are good examples. Sometimes the downsides of a technology cannot be overcome with progress. The latest Star Trek installment seems to have set up a plot line that will explore this very point.

These guys, among others, are betting billions otherwise.  Their focus is on designing and producing EV's.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massive-billion-investment-in-electric-cars-and-batteries/
https://electrek.co/2017/10/02/gm-electric-car-commitment-new-models/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-ceo/ford-to-cut-costs-14-billion-invest-in-trucks-electric-cars-ceo-idUSKCN1C82NL
http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/10/05/bmw-cut-2-4-billion-procurement-costs-invest-ev-tech/
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/28/16379394/mazda-toyota-new-electric-car-company
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Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2017, 07:23:22 pm »
These guys, among others, are betting billions otherwise.  Their focus is on designing and producing EV's.
So? Governments have jumped on the bandwagon with subsidies and threats of regulation. They have to produce something and they will. The question is whether the end result is something consumers are going to have to be forced to buy or if it will be something that is actually better than ICE engines.

If there was any sanity in government the focus now would be on plug in hybrids. This is tech that exists and works for real world applications. It would also allow the gradual investment in the charging infrastructure needed to support wide spread use of EVs. Unfortunately, too many people are star struck by Elon Musk and his fancy toys. 

Offline wilber

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2017, 07:38:14 pm »
So? Governments have jumped on the bandwagon with subsidies and threats of regulation. They have to produce something and they will. The question is whether the end result is something consumers are going to have to be forced to buy or if it will be something that is actually better than ICE engines.

If there was any sanity in government the focus now would be on plug in hybrids. This is tech that exists and works for real world applications. It would also allow the gradual investment in the charging infrastructure needed to support wide spread use of EVs. Unfortunately, too many people are star struck by Elon Musk and his fancy toys.

Emission and safety standards were all mandated and there were exactly the same arguments and rationalizations at the time. Every vehicle we drive today is far better because of them. This time, the manufacturers are jumping on the band wagon, not bitching about it and pushing back.

That said, I don't know that Tesla will be an eventual winner here, the likes of GM, VW, Ford, Toyota etc have deeper pockets and a huge manufacturing infrastructure that can be retooled instead of being built from scratch.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2017, 07:55:57 pm »
Emission and safety standards were all mandated and there were exactly the same arguments and rationalizations at the time. Every vehicle we drive today is far better because of them. This time, the manufacturers are jumping on the band wagon, not bitching about it and pushing back.
There is no comparison between mandating seatbelts or catalytic converters and mandating a entirely different engine type that is useless without a massive investment in infrastructure (an investment that governments seem to be determine to block at every opportunity because of local opposition).

I agree that the big makers are in the best position to benefit from the switch. Tesla's production problems show that building large scale manufacturing capability from scratch is not easy to do.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 07:57:37 pm by TimG »

Offline wilber

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2017, 08:31:11 pm »
There is no comparison between mandating seatbelts or catalytic converters and mandating a entirely different engine type that is useless without a massive investment in infrastructure (an investment that governments seem to be determine to block at every opportunity because of local opposition).

I agree that the big makers are in the best position to benefit from the switch. Tesla's production problems show that building large scale manufacturing capability from scratch is not easy to do.

If you think seatbelts and catalytic converters are all there are to safety and emissions improvements, you are about 40 years behind the times. Actually, electric motors predate IC engines by decades. Electric motors themselves are superior to IC engines in just about every way and are much cheaper to make and maintain. Fewer parts in the motor itself and no transmissions required. The issues are battery cost, capacity and recharging. That is where the most of the money is being invested.

I would miss IC engines though, EV's seem a bit too civilized for me. Even though current hybrid F1 cars are faster and burn a third less fuel than the old IC cars, I really miss the scream of a V10 at 20,000 RPM.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2017, 11:22:17 pm »
The issues are battery cost, capacity and recharging. That is where the most of the money is being invested.
From a technical perspective EVs are superior to ICE but the batteries has always been its Achilles heel. Without an economically viable resolution to the battery/charging issue then EVs will remain bit players. That said, part of the charging issue can be handled with a culture change where people are forced to plan their day around charging their EV because that is all they are allowed to buy. I am arguing that this culture change is not going to happen in democracies because the voters will squash any politician that thinks they can force them to put up with the hassles of owning an EV. I don't see how technological progress can get around the charging issues because Power=VoltsxAmps is a pretty immutable law of physics. On top of the culture change needed to deal with the charging issue, there is a need for massive grid upgrade in a society that is simply unable to build any large projects anymore because of 'nimby gridlock'. Bottom line, I think we will be driving plug in hybrids in 2050 and EVs will remain a niche.


Offline Omni

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2017, 12:40:24 am »


Electric vehicles will one day push gas- or diesel-powered ones to the curb—but how soon? Sooner than you might think, according to researchers at the International Monetary Fund and Georgetown University: Based on how quickly horses and buggies disappeared in the early 1900s, the researchers argue, more than 90 per cent of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other rich countries could be electric by 2040.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/electric-cars-replace-gasoline-engines-2040/

Offline MH

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #28 on: November 18, 2017, 08:23:02 am »
@TimG - if costs continue to fall, wouldn't that be a factor ? 

Offline MH

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Re: Tesla New Vehicles
« Reply #29 on: November 18, 2017, 08:26:11 am »
Also - it strikes me that the entire paradigm of transportation will change transportation's nature entirely.  It may evolve as a service that makes sense to be offered as a utility, with advantages over private vehicles.  Streetcars were privately owned/managed and served the public well for a time also.  Just a thought.