Canadian Politics Today

I am not a huge fan of Joe Rogan, but sometimes he does have interesting guests.

The one thing that China does have working against it is that demographics and growth curves are not going to allow it to continue on its current trajectory forever.  Like Japan experienced, debt-fueled expansion and globalization are not limitless, and eventually the bill comes due.  That doesn't mean they're doomed, but it makes them vulnerable and there will come a time (maybe within 10 years) when their growth flattens out to more closely match developed economies.  Their ability to maintain their trade relationships and to promote innovation in a communist authoritarian system will determine how quickly and how smoothly they transition to "developed" economy, and whether they remain competitive.   

Some very interesting news concerning the cloning of woolly mammoths.  Guest is wildlife biologist Forrest Galante.

https://youtu.be/b6Tk7N1qH6M

So whenever you hear somebody talking their opinion on complicated things, you have to listen to some counter points.

I had a far-right friend recommend Zaihan so I gave it a listen.  He's pretty cocksure.  So I listened to some skeptics and I agreed with the skeptics:

- Super knowledgeable guy
- Gets his opinions straight from facts
- No strong political bias there
- Some bias that America "is doing fine" but ok...
- Ultimate conclusions are a little too sure of themselves....

Like he talks about China having a lower population in 2050 and the likely effects.... but... it's 2050 he's talking about.

Still worth listening, and I (and both skeptics) all say give it a listen...

I totally agree that he’s a little too sure about some of his conclusions.  Some of it sounds plausible, but I’ll believe it when I see it.  But he’s definitely a knowledgeable guy and non partisan.

 He's making predictions for 27 years from now.

 So imagine it's 1996.  Clinton just won a second term.

Now here's a guy to predict 2023.

Can he do it?

No way.

We see a lot of these wannabe-oracles out there.  They have to make bold, emphatic predictions otherwise nobody cares or listens.  The fact that most of them end up wrong is irrelevant because those get ignored and forgotten after the fact.  A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut, however, so when someone like this finally does have one of their predictions turn out correct, the non-critical thinkers will dig it up from years ago and be shocked and amazed by how much of a genius he was all along.  Those 99% of other times he was wrong?  Irrelevant. 

That being said, China does have a lot of problems they'll need to deal with over the next decades.  Like the Japanese before them, there are costs associated with rapidly modernizing and globalizing your economy, and China has not yet paid. 

Declining population is one I didn't know about.