Author Topic: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)  (Read 32911 times)

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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1905 on: August 27, 2020, 10:51:38 pm »
During the AIDS epidemic, they discovered that criminal penalties didn't actually stop AIDS people from having sex, but it did drive everything underground.

Attempts to fine people who attended some reckless gathering, while well-intentioned, would do little to actually stop people from acting recklessly, but would do a lot to disincentivize testing and blow a hole in contact-tracing efforts.  Nobody is going to go get their nose swabbed or cooperate with contract tracing if doing so is going to get them fined or worse.

Law and order types have long believed the way to fight drug use is to crack down-- more penalties! Fines for possession! Throw them in jail!  It makes perfect sense, right?  Except, all the research shows that none of that stuff actually works.  Which is why our efforts to fight drug problems have moved away from attempting to punish drug users and instead towards counter-intuitive approaches. Decriminalization, legalization, education, safe injection sites, and harm reduction strategies. Not fines and jail time for users.

While I'm not sure exactly what harm-reduction strategies for socialization during the pandemic would look like, I do believe that attempts to "get tough!" and "crack down!" are doomed to fail just as they failed in combating drug use or the spread of AIDS.  One thing I believe has been talked about is changing (at least for the time being) laws regarding public alcohol use. If people are going to socialize, it would be preferable that they do it in well ventilated and spacious outdoor areas, not a crowded and poorly ventilated home or AirBnB or some other confined space they might find available.

 -k



So just to be clear, we opened businesses to make sure people can socialize in a regulated environment instead of going 'underground'.  We opened restaurants, allowed for parties up to 50 people, travel within the province, drinking outdoors and everything we possibly could, and while you have nothing to offer in terms of 'what' the solution is, you just know that enforcing the current rules won't work because... AIDS and drug use?!
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 10:53:13 pm by BC_cheque »
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Offline waldo

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1906 on: August 28, 2020, 11:28:50 am »

Offline MH

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1907 on: August 28, 2020, 12:53:49 pm »
I think some objective or semi-objective stats like deaths and infections per capita would help to know also.  Canada still looks ok.

Offline Dia

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1908 on: August 28, 2020, 05:19:09 pm »
I think some objective or semi-objective stats like deaths and infections per capita would help to know also.  Canada still looks ok.

What I'd like to know is how many of those who test positive actually get sick.   

Also, I have the dubious distinction of living in the BC municipality with the most sick-with-covid people.  It's only 522 or something, but also only to the end of July.  Who knows what August will bring. 

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1909 on: August 28, 2020, 06:35:38 pm »
We (BC) had our largest one day increase today since the pandemic began - 124 cases. 

I was always a bit of a germaphobe before... not OCD, but definitely pretty conscious of hand washing etc.  Actually, I thought I was normal but two of my friends have called me germaphobe so I guess there must be some truth to it.

Sometimes I wonder if I'll ever be able to overcome COVID even if we come up with a vaccine and/or treatment methods.  The thought of sitting at ease in a restaurant, or dating, or going to a crowded space seems so far removed now.

I hope I can experience some level of normalcy again in this life.   :(
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Offline Dia

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1910 on: August 28, 2020, 06:55:42 pm »
I wonder how people/society in the Middle Ages as a result of the plague.  Or probably more applicable to this situation, after the Spanish Flu.  Distancing was also recommended then, but fear of getting close to other people didn't seem to linger.  I wonder if there've been studies about that?

Offline wilber

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1911 on: August 28, 2020, 09:41:12 pm »
What I'd like to know is how many of those who test positive actually get sick.   

Also, I have the dubious distinction of living in the BC municipality with the most sick-with-covid people.  It's only 522 or something, but also only to the end of July.  Who knows what August will bring.

That's per 100,000 population, not total cases.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 09:44:46 pm by wilber »
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Offline waldo

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1912 on: August 29, 2020, 11:58:28 am »
The Chinese Commies are being bastards...  perhaps the Canadian gov't shouldn't have put their faith in the Chinese coming through on a vaccine.
Ya think?

member wilber! Apparently your lil' pardner, member squiggy, thought he was bringing something new... how did he miss the dozen or so prior posts on the same subject?

in any case, some interesting comments have recently come forward from the founder & CEO of CanSinoBIO, Xuefeng Yu. If you don't know, Yu's story in why he originally left China, got his Ph.D. from McGill, then worked 20+ years in the Canadian biopharmaceutical industry... suggests his comments are not politically motivated.

Yu suggests decisions in China on whether to send the vaccine to Canada were “caught in bureaucratic indecision” that occurred right after the Chinese government changed the process for shipping vaccines out of the country subsequent to the signing of Canada's NRC agreement with CanSino. Additionally, there was questioning on the "value add" of the proposed Canadian trial since CanSinoBIO had already completed Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials in China... and, as Yu highlights, Canada lacks a "high disease burden" required for Phase 3 trials:

Quote from: Xuefeng Yu - founder and CEO of CanSinoBIO
In citing the comparatively small number of COVID-19 cases in Canada: "Canada is not an ideal place to run phase three"


in any case, CanSinoBIO moved on to sign partnership agreements with companies in Russia, South America and East Africa - where that so-called, "heavy disease burden" suitable for Phase 3 trials exists.

as for the Canadian government's financial support of Canadian companies for vaccine development initiatives:
=> Variation Biotechnologies Inc. (VBI),
=> Medicago,
=> IMV Ltd,
=> VIDO-Intervac
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Offline kimmy

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1913 on: August 29, 2020, 01:07:04 pm »
A house party is not the same as gay sex or addiction, which is a medical condition.  Your analogies are terrible.

The principle is the same. Alcohol prohibition, marijuana prohibition, speeding, jaywalking, using mobile devices while driving... some portion of the population simply won't obey laws that they don't believe in if they don't think the police can enforce them.

You can't get infected with AIDS or become an addict simply by breathing the same air as someone who is.

AIDS was a lot more dangerous than COVID-19, and a lot easier to avoid.  And yet some people continued to pursue high risk situations. And trying to apply criminal penalties didn't do anything to change their minds.


You guys seem to be under the impression that if we just ask people to be reasonable, and apply penalties that reasonable people would not want to face, then people would change their behavior.  You've failed to consider that reasonable people are already following the rules and avoiding risky behavior.  It's the unreasonable who need to be dealt with, and asking unreasonable people to be reasonable is pointless.

Reasons why people would continue to disregard guidelines:
"Nobody can tell me what to do!"
"It's not serious. It's like the flu. The death rate for people my age is tiny."
"I won't catch it, there aren't any sick people here."
"The police won't find out."
"It's fake."

And probably many more.  You can try to provide people with better information. You can try to catch people in the act, and maybe sometimes you will. Most times you won't, because the police simply don't have the time or manpower.


And again, the potential for harm is greater than the potential for a good outcome, because the threat of fines will make people avoid getting tested and hurt contact tracing efforts.  Testing and contact tracing is more important than the possibility that a few people might be deterred from risky behavior by fines.  People won't go down to get their nose swabbed if they think there's a chance they'll get fined for being stupid.  They won't tell you the truth about how they got sick if telling the truth means they face a punishment.


 -k
Masked for your safety.
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Offline kimmy

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1914 on: August 29, 2020, 01:20:22 pm »
So just to be clear, we opened businesses to make sure people can socialize in a regulated environment instead of going 'underground'.  We opened restaurants, allowed for parties up to 50 people, travel within the province, drinking outdoors and everything we possibly could,

If we've done everything we possibly could, then we've done everything we possibly could.   That's not going to satisfy everybody.

and while you have nothing to offer in terms of 'what' the solution is,

I'm not the one demanding that the government do "something".   I think getting Ryan Reynolds to talk some sense to people was a better idea than trying to implement some kind of ham-fisted crackdown to appease people who want the government to do "something".

you just know that enforcing the current rules won't work because... AIDS and drug use?!

Because experience trying to manage other health crises has demonstrated that attempts to "crack down" have unintended negative consequences.

 -k
Masked for your safety.

Offline wilber

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1915 on: August 29, 2020, 01:37:32 pm »
Quote
And again, the potential for harm is greater than the potential for a good outcome, because the threat of fines will make people avoid getting tested and hurt contact tracing efforts.  Testing and contact tracing is more important than the possibility that a few people might be deterred from risky behavior by fines.  People won't go down to get their nose swabbed if they think there's a chance they'll get fined for being stupid.  They won't tell you the truth about how they got sick if telling the truth means they face a punishment.

That makes no sense, there is nothing illegal about getting sick or needing to be tested. If you know you have been exposed and carry on normally without being tested, you are a menace to your fellow citizens.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline wilber

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1916 on: August 29, 2020, 01:48:44 pm »
member wilber! Apparently your lil' pardner, member squiggy, thought he was bringing something new... how did he miss the dozen or so prior posts on the same subject?

in any case, some interesting comments have recently come forward from the founder & CEO of CanSinoBIO, Xuefeng Yu. If you don't know, Yu's story in why he originally left China, got his Ph.D. from McGill, then worked 20+ years in the Canadian biopharmaceutical industry... suggests his comments are not politically motivated.

Yu suggests decisions in China on whether to send the vaccine to Canada were “caught in bureaucratic indecision” that occurred right after the Chinese government changed the process for shipping vaccines out of the country subsequent to the signing of Canada's NRC agreement with CanSino. Additionally, there was questioning on the "value add" of the proposed Canadian trial since CanSinoBIO had already completed Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials in China... and, as Yu highlights, Canada lacks a "high disease burden" required for Phase 3 trials:
 

in any case, CanSinoBIO moved on to sign partnership agreements with companies in Russia, South America and East Africa - where that so-called, "heavy disease burden" suitable for Phase 3 trials exists.

as for the Canadian government's financial support of Canadian companies for vaccine development initiatives:
=> Variation Biotechnologies Inc. (VBI),
=> Medicago,
=> IMV Ltd,
=> VIDO-Intervac

It still has to be approved by Health Canada. Hard to do if you can't get your hands on it. What kind of partnership denies essential materials to its partner? We are supposed to be partner in this enterprise, not a customer.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline kimmy

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1917 on: August 29, 2020, 01:57:22 pm »
That makes no sense, there is nothing illegal about getting sick or needing to be tested.

If you got sick at a party, and you are afraid that you could get fined if you tell the health authorities that you were at a party, you aren't going to tell the health authorities that you got sick at a party.  And then the health authority won't be able to do contact tracing with other people were at the party.

If you know you have been exposed and carry on normally without being tested, you are a menace to your fellow citizens.

A reasonable person would understand that.  But as I keep trying to explain to you guys, we are not dealing with the reasonable portion of the populace here.

 -k
Masked for your safety.
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Offline wilber

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1918 on: August 29, 2020, 02:03:15 pm »
If you got sick at a party, and you are afraid that you could get fined if you tell the health authorities that you were at a party, you aren't going to tell the health authorities that you got sick at a party.  And then the health authority won't be able to do contact tracing with other people were at the party.

A reasonable person would understand that.  But as I keep trying to explain to you guys, we are not dealing with the reasonable portion of the populace here.

 -k

Why not tell them you were at a party, you aren't going to be charged with anything. At this point you will only be fined if you refuse to leave a party.

So how else do you deal with unreasonable people, just let them do anything they want?
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 02:05:45 pm by wilber »
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline kimmy

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Re: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)
« Reply #1919 on: August 29, 2020, 02:15:59 pm »
Why not tell them you were at a party, you aren't going to be charged with anything. At this point you will only be fined if you refuse to leave a party.

As it should be.   Attempts to apply punishment to people after-the-fact would only backfire. People calling for the government to "get tougher" need to understand that.

So how else do you deal with unreasonable people, just let them do anything they want?

Continue to try to educate and persuade, and understand that poorly-planned attempts to "deal with them" can have unintended consequences that achieve more harm than good.

 -k
Masked for your safety.