Author Topic: Covid Culture (was Outbreak Culture)  (Read 106429 times)

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Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #810 on: April 09, 2020, 01:06:55 am »
It's not their study that's the problem, it's the inference you want to draw from it.

First, as I pointed out: you'd have to be an idiot to believe that they had one case, then nothing happened for 10 days, then 3 more cases, then nothing for 5 more days, then a whole raft of cases. They are obviously missing a lot of cases from that span.

Second, as I pointed out: the existence of asymptomatic carriers, and cases that don't require medical attention, guarantees that they can't know.

It's a lovely graph, and I'm sure they worked very hard trying to find all the cases they could. But it's a statistical certainty that they didn't find them all. So while that first little square may be blue, there's plenty of other squares that we don't know of and we don't know whether they're blue or pink. In short, it doesn't prove the point you think it does.

So for you to be holding up this graph and claiming it proves something that it doesn't just makes you look like a charlatan.   Posting a sciency-looking chart or graph and pretending it makes a point it doesn't actually make is one of your favorite tricks.

I'm not making any inference - I provided the study and relayed the findings... the author's findings. It's called a data sample; one you claim is incomplete/inadequate - cause you say so! You and your SquirrelDataChops, hey!  ;D Apparently, kimmyRules state the study authors must find every/all cases before they can do analysis and present findings! If you'd like to offer a formal comment to the paper, have at it - provide your scientific basis challenging their analysis/findings. Make sure to provide your understanding as to the significance of, as you label them, "the little blue squares". Make sure you don't include any "sciency-looking charts/graphs" in your formal comment... just the real stuff, not "sciency looking"! Oh my, member kimmy! Oh my!

Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #811 on: April 09, 2020, 01:17:38 am »
April 09, 2020, 06:08 GMT --- number of U.S. deaths related to COVID-19 rise above those from Spain


Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #812 on: April 09, 2020, 01:42:47 am »
Trump says he doesn't remember if he was briefed regarding the report issued by Peter Navarro regarding the Corona outbreak. Well I mean it only discussed the possibility of a world wide outbreak of a deadly disease, but who can remember all these trivial things! Especially when there is campaigning to deal with.

report dated January 29th - addressed directly to Trump... top admin officials also received the report. So, of course, Trump has no recollection of it!

Trade Adviser Warned White House in January of Risks of a Pandemic

here's that same azz-kissing Navarro on Fox News today being asked about the report/memo - of course, he speaks of Dear Leader as being the greatest U.S. President of modern times!
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1248035263466610688/pu/vid/1280x720/LT6MRMFS9LX412mo.mp4

Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #813 on: April 09, 2020, 01:55:09 am »
geezaz! Educate yourself member kimmy!!! Many people have the virus and show no symptoms... at least initially, and even then some experience just mild reactions. But they're still carriers of the virus, and particularly so during the initial days of contacting it (see virus "shedding"). It's these asymptomatic "silent carriers" that may be... may be... driving the pandemic.

waldo protip: if you're out walking and you're approached by ignorant joggers, don't rely on the so-called 2 meter buffer. The breath of these mega-exhaling azzholes (particularly in groups of runners) has a significantly greater reach than 2 meters. (Assuming you're not wearing a mask) turn your back to them... hold your breath to allow "droplets" to sink to the ground. Even then - about the efficacy of face masks:

Outdoor activities require stricter social distancing, Belgian study suggests

Quote
“The recommended distance of 1.5 metres is very effective when people are moving slowly, but the situation is different when it comes to the active movement in sports,” he said.

Based on the simulations, the study suggests that one way to reduce this risk is to avoid being directly behind another person, either by running side by side or by running in a staggered formation.



ok, now do runners impacting upon walkers.....

Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #814 on: April 09, 2020, 11:27:35 am »

Offline waldo

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #815 on: April 09, 2020, 11:45:56 am »
from the Lincoln Project: Trump was just so distracted by.......
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1248196272416157702/pu/vid/1280x720/Ms-4_hW_oSzYjL9t.mp4

Offline wilber

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #816 on: April 09, 2020, 11:53:15 am »
It would be funny if they can't develop a vaccine and 70% of us inevitable will get it no matter what so all of this shutdown was in vain.

It won't be in vain even then. If 70% are bound to be infected, you have to spread that out over a length of time which will keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. Italy, Spain, and the UK have shown that fatality rates go from 1 or 2% to over 10% in hurry as soon as that happens. New York city is now over 6%

On edit. Current fatality rate. Canada 2.3%. US 3.5%
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 12:06:44 pm by wilber »
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #817 on: April 09, 2020, 01:00:36 pm »
I think we're **** until we all get vaccinated.  Better plan some home projects.

To keep things positive, things could be much, much, much worse than being stuck at home watching TV.  My grandparents had to deal with the Great Depression and then WWII.  I prefer this to storming Juno beach.

Once again, Graham is correct in his forecasting, as confirmed by PM Trudeau today:

Trudeau emphasized the need for Canadians to remain vigilant, staying home and frequently washing their hands in order to avoid the models' more grim projections.

"This will be the new normal until a vaccine is developed," he said.

"It will take months of continued, determined effort."


https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/trudeau-warns-covid-19-restrictions-the-new-normal/ar-BB12oibk?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

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Offline Omni

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #818 on: April 09, 2020, 02:23:21 pm »
It won't be in vain even then. If 70% are bound to be infected, you have to spread that out over a length of time which will keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. Italy, Spain, and the UK have shown that fatality rates go from 1 or 2% to over 10% in hurry as soon as that happens. New York city is now over 6%

On edit. Current fatality rate. Canada 2.3%. US 3.5%

Quite right and while the death rates are still up there the infection rate is leveling or even slowing which would indicate the physical distancing and or staying home actions are certainly not in vain. Fingers and toes crossed they get a treatment soon and a vaccine sooner rather than later.

Offline Omni

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #819 on: April 09, 2020, 02:34:26 pm »
report dated January 29th - addressed directly to Trump... top admin officials also received the report. So, of course, Trump has no recollection of it!

Trade Adviser Warned White House in January of Risks of a Pandemic

here's that same azz-kissing Navarro on Fox News today being asked about the report/memo - of course, he speaks of Dear Leader as being the greatest U.S. President of modern times!
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1248035263466610688/pu/vid/1280x720/LT6MRMFS9LX412mo.mp4

Trump must be a little PO'ed at that pesky Canadian keeping track of his daily endless string of lies, misstatements, and ya know, just basic BS. Obviously a full time job and kudos to Daniel Dale for keeping up.

Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #820 on: April 09, 2020, 03:38:35 pm »
It won't be in vain even then. If 70% are bound to be infected, you have to spread that out over a length of time which will keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. Italy, Spain, and the UK have shown that fatality rates go from 1 or 2% to over 10% in hurry as soon as that happens. New York city is now over 6%

On edit. Current fatality rate. Canada 2.3%. US 3.5%

I really don’t think Graham understands the concept that flattening the curve to not overwhelm the medical system is the goal, even if a vaccine comes sooner than later (which it won’t). 

If an extra 50,000 (number is just an example) people are saved prior to a vaccine becoming available because of all the measures, then how could the measures have been in vain?   

And he wonders why he was labeled a #covidiot?
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Offline kimmy

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #821 on: April 09, 2020, 06:37:41 pm »
Given the chance, I'd break Navarro's little twig neck for the stuff he said about our Prime Minister on Fox News a couple of years ago.

 -k
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #822 on: April 09, 2020, 07:00:14 pm »
Don't sweat the FOX idiots...

Offline kimmy

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #823 on: April 09, 2020, 07:16:47 pm »
I'm not making any inference - I provided the study and relayed the findings... the author's findings. It's called a data sample; one you claim is incomplete/inadequate - cause you say so! You and your SquirrelDataChops, hey!  ;D Apparently, kimmyRules state the study authors must find every/all cases before they can do analysis and present findings! If you'd like to offer a formal comment to the paper, have at it - provide your scientific basis challenging their analysis/findings. Make sure to provide your understanding as to the significance of, as you label them, "the little blue squares". Make sure you don't include any "sciency-looking charts/graphs" in your formal comment... just the real stuff, not "sciency looking"! Oh my, member kimmy! Oh my!

Counterproposal: you find an expert willing to state with any confidence that the outbreak isn't related to the Wuhan seafood market.  I doubt that even the source of your sciency-looking graph is making such a claim.

You don't need to be Dr Fauci to understand that a sample of one (1) case is sufficient to draw any conclusion about where the outbreak began. (Dr Fauci is, btw, among those who are concerned that reopening wet markets in China is an unacceptable health risk.)

And once your graph does reach numbers where a trend becomes apparent, what becomes apparent is that the majority can be traced to that market.


The reason Dr Fauci and others are concerned about these markets is that they're a hazard. The Wikipedia article on wet markets contains plenty of citations indicating that experts have been warning about the potential of this exact thing happening, for years: "A ticking timebomb."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_market#Health_concerns
Quote
Health concerns

If sanitation standards are not maintained, wet markets containing wildlife products can spread diseases. Because of the openness, newly introduced animals may come in direct contact with sales clerks, butchers, and customers. Insects such as flies have relatively easy access to the food products. The avian flu and SARS outbreaks can be traced to keeping live animals in wet markets where the potential for zoonotic transmission is greatly increased.[71][72] In April 2020, scientist Peter Daszak described a Chinese wet market as follows: "it is a bit of shock to go to a wildlife market and see this huge diversity of animals live in cages on top of each other with a pile of guts that have been pulled out of an animal and thrown on the floor [...] These are perfect places for viruses to spread."[73]

In a 2007 study, Chinese scientists identified the presence of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats combined with unsanitary wildlife markets and the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China as a "time-bomb".[74] A 2018 study in Malaysia concluded that wet market workers were at greater risk for leptospirosis infections.[75]

Chinese environmentalists, researchers and state media have called for stricter regulation of exotic animal trade in the markets.[26] Medical experts Zhong Nanshan, Guan Yi and Yuen Kwok-yung have also called for the closure of wildlife markets since 2010.[32]

Amidst the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, Chinese wet markets have been blamed for the outbreak.[76] Some reports say wildlife markets in other countries of Asia,[35][77][78] Africa,[79][80][81] and in general all over the world are also similarly prone to health risks.[82] In April 2020, a group of US lawmakers, NIAID director Anthony Fauci, UNEP biodiversity chief Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, and CBCGDF secretary general Zhou Jinfeng called for the global closure of wildlife markets due to the potential for zoonotic diseases and risk to endangered species.[41][83][84]




 -k
Paris - London - New York - Kim City

Offline kimmy

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Re: Outbreak Culture
« Reply #824 on: April 09, 2020, 07:17:21 pm »
Don't sweat the FOX idiots...

Navarro isn't a Fox idiot, he's a Trump administration idiot.

 -k
Paris - London - New York - Kim City
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