Author Topic: Global Darkening Crisis  (Read 1392 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2017, 05:05:42 pm »
correlation-based proxy analysis, eh? So much for words having meaning.
The proxies used to estimate past temperatures are calibrated by correlating them with the temperature records. Many times they have no clear theoretical basis that the proxies respond to temperature and nothing else (such as rainfall) and simply assume this relationship to be true and use correlation to "prove" the relationship. In some cases, they ignore the basic rules of correlation analysis and simply throw out samples that do not correlate to temperatures based on the premise that "if they don't correlate they must be bad samples". So, yes, all of the proxy-based climate studies are completely depended on correlation analysis even though one would expect that the use of proxies means you don't need correlation.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 05:10:25 pm by TimG »

Offline JBG

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2017, 05:15:58 pm »
And I shall label this thread "fuckin' retarded".
We don't agree. That doesn't make the thread retarded, though my IQ is 79.

Climate-change deniers are always the first to shout "weather is not climate", yet they're also the first to say that it was unseasonably cold in their part of the country that day as if that were evidence that climate change isn't real.
I don't do that. On the other hand why do climate panickers always cite weather changes where no one lives and where there are no good records?

My parents took me and my little brother to the Alberta Rockies when we were little kids, and I saw the Columbia Icefields first hand at the time. And now seeing them 30 years later having receded so far from where they used to be... that's hundreds of millions, or maybe billions, of tons of ice that have vanished in a span of a few decades.  That's not a cold day or two, that's a vast and sustained change that I've seen with my own eyes within my own short lifetime.
That's called the end of an Ice Age. We're not making new ice and old ice melts or sublimates.

If you live in Westchester New York and have never seen a glacier in person perhaps the whole concept is completely abstract to you.  I can assure you, it's not.
I have. Mount Rainier and Mount Lassen (though the latter may have just been year-round snow cover).

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Offline Omni

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #17 on: December 23, 2017, 07:59:03 pm »
We don't agree. That doesn't make the thread retarded, though my IQ is 79.
I don't do that. On the other hand why do climate panickers always cite weather changes where no one lives and where there are no good records?
That's called the end of an Ice Age. We're not making new ice and old ice melts or sublimates.
I have. Mount Rainier and Mount Lassen (though the latter may have just been year-round snow cover).

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You don't have to live near a glacier to find out it is melting at an alarming rate. NASA will provide you with actual satellite photos. Greenland, the Arctic Ocean, the Antarctic Ocean just for starters.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2017, 03:21:02 pm »
The proxies used to estimate past temperatures are calibrated by correlating them with the temperature records. Many times they have no clear theoretical basis that the proxies respond to temperature and nothing else (such as rainfall) and simply assume this relationship to be true and use correlation to "prove" the relationship. In some cases, they ignore the basic rules of correlation analysis and simply throw out samples that do not correlate to temperatures based on the premise that "if they don't correlate they must be bad samples". So, yes, all of the proxy-based climate studies are completely depended on correlation analysis even though one would expect that the use of proxies means you don't need correlation.
In other words, the vast majority of the climate science community knows less about the validity of their work than you.
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Offline Rue

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2017, 09:42:08 am »
I think to deny there are climate changes causing global issues is silly. What causes them is the actual debate.

Draught, desertification, lack of water, ocean and atmosphere changes to temperature are all objectively proven facts.

The connection between lack of water, desertification, mass migration and political instability is fact.

The growth of human population to unsustainable levels in India, China and other nations is fact.

Why debate the cause of it when the symptoms of it are right in your face and need to be dealt with?

If your  prostate leaks why deny it?. Either buy diapers or walk around with pee in your pants.
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Offline MH

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2017, 10:14:28 am »
I think to deny there are climate changes causing global issues is silly. What causes them is the actual debate.

Not really.  There's a consensus on causes.  The debate is around response.
 

Offline TimG

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2017, 10:36:37 am »
In other words, the vast majority of the climate science community knows less about the validity of their work than you.
This is the common misconception. The fact is the "majority" of the climate scientists specialize in areas other than the study of past temperature proxies so their opinion is no more informed than any other person with a scientific background that has not looked at the relevant papers. That said, I have spent the time to read a lot about the topic so I can correctly state that I do know better than the "majority" of climate scientists.

Now I realize you would likely want to back-peddle and claim that you only really meant the majority of scientists working on proxy data and this subset of scientists do know more than I do on the topic. However, they are hardly trustworthy sources given the fact that their careers depend on proxy data being perceived as useful. This means they have a huge incentive to ignore problems and engage in statistical games which their peers with the same self interest like but violate all of the normal rules of statistical analysis. Now you can be skeptical of my criticisms but you can't simply claim that I must be wrong because the people I claim are sloppy claim they are not. That is like saying a politician is not  corrupt because the politician says he is not corrupt.

Of course, all of these arguments will go over your head because everyone filters climate arguments based on their perception of the resulting policies. You are credulous because climate change gives support to a lot of policies that you like and I am skeptical because I dislike those policies. If you did not like the policies you would find my arguments very reasonable. Case in point: the majority of scientists feel that GMOs are safe - is that good enough for you?
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 11:02:35 am by TimG »

Offline TimG

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2017, 10:40:18 am »
Draught, desertification, lack of water, ocean and atmosphere changes to temperature are all objectively proven facts.
Other than warming they are not facts. In fact, warming is expected to increase the amount of water available to human populations (it is stated explicitly in the IPCC reports) and it is increasing populations that will be the primary cause of water shortages.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2017, 12:24:55 pm »
Not really.  There's a consensus on causes.  The debate is around response.

There is? I thought debate over everything was settled completely and only crazy people and fanatics questioned anything whatsoever.

Next month people are going to start seeing the impact of their shrugged support for the 'climate change' policies of the progressives. Although the Liberals at all levels are doing their best to hide them. They don't want people to see how much of their gas bill or electric bill or hydro bill are going to the new taxes. Oddly, they seem to feel people's support for climate change taxes is based largely on the belief OTHER people will be paying them - like, big corporations or something.
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Offline MH

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2017, 12:57:03 pm »
There is? I thought debate over everything was settled completely and only crazy people and fanatics questioned anything whatsoever.

No, we haven't settled on a response.

Quote
Next month people are going to start seeing the impact of their shrugged support for the 'climate change' policies of the progressives. Although the Liberals at all levels are doing their best to hide them. They don't want people to see how much of their gas bill or electric bill or hydro bill are going to the new taxes. Oddly, they seem to feel people's support for climate change taxes is based largely on the belief OTHER people will be paying them - like, big corporations or something.

Well we can sleep restfully and broke knowing we played our part then.

Offline waldo

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2017, 07:18:24 pm »
Other than warming they are not facts. In fact, warming is expected to increase the amount of water available to human populations (it is stated explicitly in the IPCC reports) and it is increasing populations that will be the primary cause of water shortages.

good on ya for referencing the IPCC! By the by, do you have an IPCC 'money-quote' to align with your most generalized statement? And which RCP are you presuming to leverage, hey - RCP8.5?  ;D Care to speak to all the other aspects of impact/risk attached to RCP8.5... I mean, c'mon, don't just stop with water availability!

most pointedly, that increased water availability won't be uniform, with large population bases subject to water limitations/constraints:



given your emphasis on population increase and your forever "adapt-R-Us-Only" policy push, just how do you propose the global community of nations will respond to projections of an increased displacement of people associated with higher exposure to extreme weather events... to increased risks of violent conflicts driven by poverty and economic shocks? The U.S. Pentagon and intelligence community certainly acknowledge their concerns in this regard - what's the TimG_adapt-R-Us policy in this regard, hey?

Offline kimmy

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #26 on: December 31, 2017, 01:19:12 pm »
"HUR HUR HUR, sure is cold this week!  Looks like global warming is FAKE NEWS!"

 -President Trump.


"HUR HUR HUR! You tell 'em, Big Daddy!"

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Offline TimG

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #27 on: December 31, 2017, 01:22:30 pm »
"HUR HUR HUR, sure is cold this week!  Looks like global warming is FAKE NEWS!"
There are lots of idiots on both sides of the debate. That does not mean that every person skeptical of the overheated claims of alarmists is necessarily wrong or unreasonable.
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Offline waldo

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #28 on: December 31, 2017, 02:21:45 pm »
There are lots of idiots on both sides of the debate. That does not mean that every person skeptical of the overheated claims of alarmists is necessarily wrong or unreasonable.

why so defensive, hey? Wait now... just a few posts back you were asked to provide some of your (postured) reasonableness! Is there a problem - for you?

Offline Rue

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Re: Global Darkening Crisis
« Reply #29 on: December 31, 2017, 02:33:43 pm »
Tim G as you know I am probably on the other side of the debate on this one, but your point was well stated and I do think some phenomena are natural, i.e., have always been happening and I do concede the Al Gore presentations were full of factual errors and misrepresentations and I appreciate your debate from the "other side". I

I would like to think and call me na´ve, the same idiot humans that are threatening to blow us up and poison us are equally as capable of doing incredibly positive things as well with those very same brains. You are right there has to be a proper perspective and balance put into the debate which sometimes I admit is lost as this issue triggers primal fear of survival for some which can cloud judgement.





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