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Author Topic: Depopulation... Lights Out...  (Read 418 times)

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Offline Michael Hardner

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Depopulation... Lights Out...
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:42:41 am »
The world population will decline in the next century.  We're still in the immigration/growth mindset and so we'll likely end up at 50-100 million before we go back down.

Japan hates immigrants, so we're going to get a preview of what Depopulation looks like there first:

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/qvqwdw/japan-is-giving-away-abandoned-houses-for-free?utm_source=vicefbuk&fbclid=IwAR1O6hVBvvEiMggWMkkbogB2axCgItncBmHvQ34Iutq5Ry_42w-TjVi8VYc

"It’s understood that Japan’s akiya glut is due in part to the nation’s dramatically ageing population. As more and more Japanese citizens either kick the bucket or shuffle into retirement homes, an increasing number of houses around the country are being left empty without anyone to live in them. There aren’t enough young people around to fill the void, and those that are present are taking longer to have families."
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2019, 02:08:35 pm »
Where do you get the notion that the population will decline?

Quote
The median estimate for future growth sees the world population reaching 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 assuming a continuing decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman in 2010–2015 to 2.2 in 2045–2050 and to 2.0 in 2095–2100...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2019, 02:58:36 pm »
Many models predict population decline.
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2019, 03:00:58 pm »
Growth rate in is 1.07% down from 1.09, 1.12, 1.14 % in the previous years.
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2019, 09:36:36 pm »
The rate of growth is declining slightly.  The population is still growing though.

Please provide a cite for your claim.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2019, 10:27:15 pm »
Quote from: the_squid on March 22, 2019, 02:08:35 pm
Where do you get the notion that the population will decline?
Why do you assume that poor nations will be forever poor?

Every human society has started to decline in population once it reaches a certain wealth level.
The only way population will continue to grow is if the Africa and India stay poor.
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2019, 10:36:44 pm »
Quote from: TimG on March 23, 2019, 10:27:15 pm
Why do you assume that poor nations will be forever poor?

Every human society has started to decline in population once it reaches a certain wealth level.
The only way population will continue to grow is if the Africa and India stay poor.

Please provide a cite that the population of the earth is headed down, or projected to.
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Offline Omni

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2019, 10:55:13 pm »
Quote from: the_squid on March 23, 2019, 10:36:44 pm
Please provide a cite that the population of the earth is headed down, or projected to.

It's not projected happen overnight but there are a number of studies that say it's the way we are heading. And as has been suggested, as poor countries climb out of poverty birth rates will likely decline.

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=98371&page=1
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Offline TimG

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2019, 10:55:29 pm »
Quote from: the_squid on March 23, 2019, 10:36:44 pm
Please provide a cite that the population of the earth is headed down, or projected to.
Yeesh. This is one of those basic facts that everyone should already know: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth

It will start heading down. The only debate is about when (i.e. 2050 or 2150).
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2019, 11:02:54 pm »
Do you guys read the links you post?  Projected to be 10 billion by 2100.

Please show me the cite for a decrease in population. 

Even if it starts to decline in a hundred years or so, there will still be 5 billion more people than now!!   You guys can’t read.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 11:13:09 pm by the_squid »
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Offline wilber

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2019, 11:33:54 pm »
Earth overshoot day is now August 1, meaning we consume the earths ability to regenerate resources each year in the first seven months. Famine, pollution and disease will eventually take care of population growth.
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2019, 11:34:34 pm »
Futurists/scientists predict the AI singularity will happen by 2050.  That's predicted to create a technological explosion unlike anything we can even imagine.  In other words, we have no idea what technology will be like in the 2nd half of the century, and we'll have no idea what the consequences of that will be on population.  By the end of this century some scientists believe humans could achieve immortality (things like stem cells, genetic manipulation, cell regeneration etc).  So predictions are meaningless.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2019, 12:27:07 am »
Quote from: the_squid on March 23, 2019, 11:02:54 pm
Do you guys read the links you post?  Projected to be 10 billion by 2100.
The link says:
It will start heading down. The only debate is about when (i.e. 2050 or 2150).

Try reading it again.
Hint: if it starts declining in 2150 then it will be higher than now in 2100.

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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2019, 05:39:58 am »
Quote from: the_squid on March 23, 2019, 09:36:36 pm
The rate of growth is declining slightly.  The population is still growing though.

Please provide a cite for your claim.

The growth rate is trending to zero, then it will go negative.
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Offline Pinus or Vid or...?????

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Re: Depopulation... Lights Out...
« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2019, 07:11:06 am »
Quote from: MH on March 24, 2019, 05:39:58 am
The growth rate is trending to zero, then it will go negative.

Only in Europe
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