Author Topic: Coronavirus Science (facts donít care about your feelings)  (Read 1849 times)

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Offline Shady

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Coronavirus Science (facts donít care about your feelings)
« on: April 28, 2020, 08:02:37 pm »
I thought Iíd start a topic on the science associated with the coronavirus, since feelings and emotions seem to be governing peopleís responses in other threads.  Public policy needs to implemented using the evolving science related to the virus, and not what feels good or feels right.  I understand the initial response, due to the fact that very little information was known of the Wuhan coronavirus.  But since itís outbreak some 6 to 8 weeks ago, much information has been gathered, and much has been learned.  The main lessons are:

1.  The virus is much more widespread than originally thought.
2.  The virus is much less deadly than originally thought.
3.  The virus is deadly to a select group of people, particularly older, and people with underlying health conditions.

For example.

Death Rate:

Under 18 years old:  zero and (0 per 100,000 in the population)

18 to 45 years old:  0.01 percent (11 per 100,000 in the population)

75 and over:  0.80 percent (death rate is 80 times that of 18 to 45 years old)

Of all fatal cases in New York State:

Over 70 years of age: 2/3 of all deaths

Over 50 years of age: 95 percent

Underlying illness: 90 percent

Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date:

6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness.


And

Hospitalizations:

In New York City as of Friday, April 24: 34,600

Under 18 years old:  0.01 percent

18-44 years old:  0.10 percent

65 to 74 years old:  1.7 percent

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Furthermore, antibody tests indicate that a much larger percentage of the population either have, or had the virus, many with little to no symptoms.

1 in 5 people tested in New York City had antibodies for the coronavirus

If those early results translate to the rest of the New York population, that would mean about 2.7 million people across the state would have been infected.
https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

Santa Clara in California had similar results.

Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study suggests
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html

Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.

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Offline Shady

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You wouldnít know science if it hit you in the face.   What a maroon. 

You say 1, 2 and 3 as if theyíre facts, with no context...  youíre hilarious.
Which studies are you referring to?  If you have any new science, youíre welcome to add it to the conversation.  Here, Iíll go first.  This is from today.

Coronavirus: 95% of victims in England hospitals had underlying health conditions
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-95-of-victims-in-england-hospitals-had-underlying-health-conditions-11979733
Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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Offline Omni

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Which studies are you referring to?  If you have any new science, youíre welcome to add it to the conversation.  Here, Iíll go first.  This is from today.

Coronavirus: 95% of victims in England hospitals had underlying health conditions
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-95-of-victims-in-england-hospitals-had-underlying-health-conditions-11979733

According to Dr Bharat Pankhania, an expert on communicable disease control at the University of Exeter Medical School, it is not surprising that some young, healthy people die after contracting the virus, noting the risk of infection and even death is not zero for any demographic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/why-young-healthy-people-dying-coronavirus/

Offline Shady

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According to Dr Bharat Pankhania, an expert on communicable disease control at the University of Exeter Medical School, it is not surprising that some young, healthy people die after contracting the virus, noting the risk of infection and even death is not zero for any demographic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/why-young-healthy-people-dying-coronavirus/
I completely agree that itís possible that younger people could die from covid, but itís just extremely rare.  Several thousand people under 35 die every year of the seasonal flu.  So of course covid wouldnít be any different.  Btw, statistically zero and actual zero are two different things.  But currently, a person under 25 has a better chance of being killed in a car accident than dying from covid 19.
Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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Offline wilber

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Quote
Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study suggests
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html

Ya, between 2.5% and 4.2% of the population. Based on a study of a whole 3000 people. Herd immunity is here.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline Omni

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Pence shows up at at the Mayo Clinic not wearing a mask. everybody else was. What The Fuck was he thinking.
oh I forgot, he works for Trump.

Offline Omni

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I completely agree that itís possible that younger people could die from covid, but itís just extremely rare.  Several thousand people under 35 die every year of the seasonal flu.  So of course covid wouldnít be any different.  Btw, statistically zero and actual zero are two different things.  But currently, a person under 25 has a better chance of being killed in a car accident than dying from covid 19.

What a feeble fucking attempt to deflect. Here's a little bit of info for you Shady, you don't have to lose control of your car to kill somebody with Covid. You just have to sneeze. Something tells me you're not a very good driver either.

Offline Omni

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I completely agree that itís possible that younger people could die from covid, but itís just extremely rare.  Several thousand people under 35 die every year of the seasonal flu.  So of course covid wouldnít be any different.  Btw, statistically zero and actual zero are two different things.  But currently, a person under 25 has a better chance of being killed in a car accident than dying from covid 19.

Hey shady can you explain how your buddy said " we have 15 known cases and we'll soon get it down to zero" missed the mark by a little bit, somewhere around over a million or so?

Offline waldo

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I thought Iíd start a topic on the science associated with the coronavirus, since feelings and emotions seem to be governing peopleís responses in other threads.  Public policy needs to implemented using the evolving science related to the virus, and not what feels good or feels right.

what science? All you've done is drop 'go-fetch' links; 2 of which rely upon the same most questionable, highly criticized study. But again, what science are you presuming to leverage, to extend upon?

as your intent with this thread is to join the throngs of 'endTheShutdowners' hyping the same 2 antibody related studies, we already have a "Back To Work" thread... you're not adding anything new here member Shady!

try again - try harder!



Offline waldo

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... of the Wuhan coronavirus.

given you were corrected previously... and you acknowledged said correction, this repeat is nothing more than a ShadyTroll! Be better member Shady; be better - recognize the official names as: virus => SARS-CoV-2 // disease => COVID-19


Referring to it as the Wuhan virus isnít incorrect.

factualWaldo protip: 2015 - WHO established best practices for naming of new human infectious diseases

Quote
WHO, in consultation and collaboration with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has identified best practices for the naming of new human diseases, with the aim to minimize unnecessary negative impact of disease names on trade, travel, tourism or animal welfare, and avoid causing offence to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional or ethnic groups.

per the official WHO announcement - naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it

Quote
Official names for the virus responsible for COVID-19 (previously known as ď2019 novel coronavirusĒ) and the disease it causes.

Disease: coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Virus: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Offline MH

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What a feeble **** attempt to deflect. Here's a little bit of info for you Shady, you don't have to lose control of your car to kill somebody with Covid. You just have to sneeze. Something tells me you're not a very good driver either.

I"m going to defend Shady's argument (or try  :D) just because he made a good attempt here and the devil needs an advocate...

You are right that you don't have to lose control of your car to kill somebody but to stretch the analogy... cars are actually quite deadly and we don't ban them.  There is such a thing as an acceptable amount of losses, which is why restrictions will be lifted before deaths go to zero.  Right ?

Offline MH

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I will say this, Shady: we should not quote anyone but epidemiologists at this point.

Surgeons, neurologists, or "Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford Universityís Hoover Institution. He was chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center from 1998 until 2012." do not have expertise in this highly specialized field.

Also - I would never share all discussions with a general audience.  The 'public' for this kind of information can be assumed to have only basic understanding.

Offline Bubbermiley

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And judging from the OP, a less than basic understanding. I don't know why Italy with its overrun healthcare system and economic collapse is more desirable than just economic collapse.
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Offline Omni

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I"m going to defend Shady's argument (or try  :D) just because he made a good attempt here and the devil needs an advocate...

You are right that you don't have to lose control of your car to kill somebody but to stretch the analogy... cars are actually quite deadly and we don't ban them.  There is such a thing as an acceptable amount of losses, which is why restrictions will be lifted before deaths go to zero.  Right ?

We put seat belts in our cars when we figured out that made them less deadly, and we made it law you have to use them. For now we should follow the restrictions such as physical distancing and wearing masks until we figure out how to make Corona less deadly.

Offline wilber

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I"m going to defend Shady's argument (or try  :D) just because he made a good attempt here and the devil needs an advocate...

You are right that you don't have to lose control of your car to kill somebody but to stretch the analogy... cars are actually quite deadly and we don't ban them.  There is such a thing as an acceptable amount of losses, which is why restrictions will be lifted before deaths go to zero.  Right ?

Cars have a purpose, we need them. We have no need of Coronavirus, all it is good for is killing people.

We do have to figure out how to manage it until an effective vaccine is available. That will be trial and error, hopefully more trial than error. Germany has had  a spike in infections since they lifted some restrictions and are looking at having to reimpose them.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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