Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 4657 times)

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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #885 on: November 29, 2019, 01:46:06 pm »
You just did it again!  You don't even know what strawman of yours i'm referring to.  Your reading comprehension is horrible.

Yes I know, you just restated the point i just made.

Could be something to do with your writing contradictions.
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Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #886 on: November 29, 2019, 01:54:50 pm »
I know my predictions of a specific player 3 years out are subject to a lot of variables, and 6 years out even more. I can say however with absolute certainty that if I keep the current team for 20 years I will be losing a lot of games.

Weather ≠ Climate

Offline Poonlight Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #887 on: November 30, 2019, 12:19:44 am »
I know my predictions of a specific player 3 years out are subject to a lot of variables, and 6 years out even more. I can say however with absolute certainty that if I keep the current team for 20 years I will be losing a lot of games.

Weather ≠ Climate

I never said weather = climate.  I said they both have a ton of variables.
"The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth"  - African proverb

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #888 on: November 30, 2019, 12:28:19 am »
I never said weather = climate.  I said they both have a ton of variables.

And the variables in weather are showing a trend in climate.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #889 on: November 30, 2019, 05:42:51 am »
And the variables in weather are showing a trend in climate.

Yes, this is true also in general. 

At a certain point, the complexity of the prediction passes a point where you can make any kind of prediction.  Making predictions about human civilization is maybe an obvious example. 
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Offline Poonlight Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #890 on: November 30, 2019, 12:21:59 pm »
I know my predictions of a specific player 3 years out are subject to a lot of variables, and 6 years out even more. I can say however with absolute certainty that if I keep the current team for 20 years I will be losing a lot of games.

Weather ≠ Climate

My point is that we can have high probability of certainty that the earth will keep warming throughout the century, though because of a massive # of variables we won't know precisely by how much science can predict a general range +/- a certain amount, as shown in all the models and IPCC reports.  There are also a lot of interacting variables in how this warming will affect different species and ecosystems so it's impossible for science to predict exactly how CC will affect the earth but science can take educated guesses on how it will will varying degrees of probability/certainty, as also seen in the IPCC reports.

My other point was that this is also how predicting weather works.  We don't know with 100% certainty if it's going to rain 4 days from now but they always will post the P.O.P. (probability of precipitation) based on an educated guess using computer models.  Obviously climate and weather models are vastly different but the basic methodology is similar.  It's all based on gathering as much data on as many interacting variables as possible and calculating probabilities of future outcomes.
"The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth"  - African proverb

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #891 on: November 30, 2019, 12:53:25 pm »
My point is that we can have high probability of certainty that the earth will keep warming throughout the century, though because of a massive # of variables we won't know precisely by how much science can predict a general range +/- a certain amount, as shown in all the models and IPCC reports.  There are also a lot of interacting variables in how this warming will affect different species and ecosystems so it's impossible for science to predict exactly how CC will affect the earth but science can take educated guesses on how it will will varying degrees of probability/certainty, as also seen in the IPCC reports.

My other point was that this is also how predicting weather works.  We don't know with 100% certainty if it's going to rain 4 days from now but they always will post the P.O.P. (probability of precipitation) based on an educated guess using computer models.  Obviously climate and weather models are vastly different but the basic methodology is similar.  It's all based on gathering as much data on as many interacting variables as possible and calculating probabilities of future outcomes.

Actually a forecast of rain in 4 days in not so much based on computer models as it is on what we can see from satellites looking down from space showing where the clouds are, and where they are heading. Climate change is more based on computer modelling and is also based on if the temp. rises this much than this will be the outcome. If it rises more then the outcome will be more severe. Hence the reason for attempting to slow the warming trend.

Offline Poonlight Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #892 on: November 30, 2019, 02:16:51 pm »
Actually a forecast of rain in 4 days in not so much based on computer models as it is on what we can see from satellites looking down from space showing where the clouds are, and where they are heading. Climate change is more based on computer modelling and is also based on if the temp. rises this much than this will be the outcome. If it rises more then the outcome will be more severe. Hence the reason for attempting to slow the warming trend.

That's exactly what weather forecasts are.  A weather satellite can only see what's happening now and in the past, and computer models calculate what will happen in the future based on all the data and variables.  Weather forecasting isn't just using satellites since that only uses a visual, it's also using temperature and barometer readings etc from the ground and other sources from all over the country/world.  This all goes into the computer models as data for each variable.

https://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/584862/how-do-weather-models-work

http://zoomradar.com/brandon/computer-forecast-models/

"The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth"  - African proverb

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #893 on: December 03, 2019, 09:08:03 am »
Other exaggeration is: we are doomed, we will be under water in 20 years
You call this exaggeration, but you do realize that there are already places on the planet dealing with exactly this problem TODAY, not even 20 years from now, right?
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #894 on: December 03, 2019, 11:22:36 am »
You call this exaggeration, but you do realize that there are already places on the planet dealing with exactly this problem TODAY, not even 20 years from now, right?

That is true. We have had ~8 inches of SL rise in the last century or so, and 3 of those inches in the last 25 years. In many cases the people most affected so far are those least able to afford to deal with it. Bangladesh, Jakarta, Marshall Islands, Maldives etc. Seawalls are not cheap.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #895 on: December 03, 2019, 03:58:18 pm »
You call this exaggeration, but you do realize that there are already places on the planet dealing with exactly this problem TODAY, not even 20 years from now, right?

But read your words... You are describing the fact that we have a threat, not that we are done for.

Offline the_squid

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #896 on: December 03, 2019, 07:45:14 pm »
But read your words... You are describing the fact that we have a threat, not that we are done for.

What reputable scientist has said “we will be underwater in 20 years”?   You’re making crap up.
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Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #897 on: December 04, 2019, 05:53:09 am »
What reputable scientist has said “we will be underwater in 20 years”?   You’re making crap up.

I didn't say reputable scientists are saying this.  This is the part of the article I highlighted:

Journalists and activists alike have an obligation to describe environmental problems honestly and accurately, even if they fear doing so will reduce their news value or salience with the public. There is good evidence that the catastrophist framing of climate change is self-defeating because it alienates and polarizes many people. And exaggerating climate change risks distracting us from other important issues including ones we might have more near-term control over.

If we listen to reputable scientists, this won't be a problem.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #898 on: December 04, 2019, 07:17:47 am »
MH, hopefully this isn't behind a paywall....but I think you need to check this infographic out and perhaps read the associated article.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0194-x/figures/1

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #899 on: December 04, 2019, 08:51:17 am »
MH, hopefully this isn't behind a paywall....but I think you need to check this infographic out and perhaps read the associated article.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0194-x/figures/1

Like, the_squid, you are quoting reputable scientists via a reputable journal

Abstract
Today, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.


Again - it is the media and activists who are advancing unsupported claims, not scientists.