Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 28600 times)

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Offline Granny

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #585 on: May 22, 2019, 06:39:01 pm »
Science uses facts to create hypotheses. If it is possible to create replicable experiments to test hypotheses then the hypotheses become like facts. If no replicable experiments are possible then the hypotheses are just some's opinion and subject to bias.

IOW, by giving examples of hypotheses proven by replicable experiments you simply prove you do not understand how science works.

I have to point out again, TimG that your understanding of Science is Grade 9,  1965.

Experimentation is a small but still valuable portion of Science that mimics the real world to test specific hypotheses about 1 or 2 factors.
But in the computer age has been around for a long time now, and gives us the capacity to observe and document phenomena in the real world, in real contexts, record and evaluate a variety of contributing factors statistically and make predictions about future events under a variety of conditions.

Your posts about science are just wrong and should be ignored by anyone actually interested in climate science.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #586 on: May 22, 2019, 06:58:37 pm »
I have to point out again, TimG that your understanding of Science is Grade 9,  1965.
You don't have the any understanding of what science is and is not.

But in the computer age has been around for a long time now, and gives us the capacity to observe and document phenomena in the real world, in real contexts, record and evaluate a variety of contributing factors statistically and make predictions about future events under a variety of conditions.
Computer simulations depend entirely on the assumptions that when into their making. They cannot discover that those assumptions are wrong. When computer simulations are used successfully (airplane design/silicon chip design) it is only because every calculation made by these computer simulations is verified by real world experiments. If the simulation fails to predict the real world outcome the default assumption is the simulation is wrong. In climate science the default assumption is the real world data is wrong and needs to be "corrected" until it matches the model.

Real world validation is the *only* way to turn a hypotheses into a theory. Most claims in climate science will never be validated.

Your posts about science are just wrong and should be ignored by anyone actually interested in climate science.
Jumping in to assist waldo with group think Type III symptoms:
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Mindguards— self-appointed members who shield the group from dissenting information.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #587 on: May 22, 2019, 07:03:07 pm »
Another gold star for "completely missing the point". Yes, we can't replicate an experiment for polar ice melting which is my point. In climate science such experiments are not possible which means that any hypotheses are inherently less certain than hypotheses from fields where such experiments are possible. It is simply wrong to put climate science in the same category as gravitation or medicine. Climate science can never provide the same quality of results and should never be compared to those fields.

Science has never proven exactly how gravity works either but by gawd we have figured out ways to deal with it. Medicine is ever growing but it has saved lives. It seems you simply want to ignore science that refutes your concepts of it. Shares in Exxon-Mobil perhaps?

Offline Granny

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #588 on: May 22, 2019, 07:59:52 pm »

Real world validation is the *only* way to turn a hypotheses into a theory. Most claims in climate science will never be validated.

They are validated on real data.
The 97% of climate science you don't read.
Lol


Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #589 on: May 22, 2019, 08:10:29 pm »
They are validated on real data.
Except that is not true no matter how much you wish it to be true. Over the last 20 years the best models climate scientists had failed to predict the amount of warming we actually had. Scientists that were not consumed by group think would have considered the possibility that climate models were wrong and needed to be fixed to match the real world. However, instead they ignored the real world and clung to be notion that the models could not be wrong and instead went about manipulating the various datasets until they produced something the could claim to be agreement with models.

No scientist designing models for use with aircraft design would ever consider such shady tactics. If you suspect the data you get new data. You don't manipulate data with subjective ad-hoc corrections until the data matches what you wish it to be.
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #590 on: May 22, 2019, 09:11:04 pm »
Except that is not true no matter how much you wish it to be true. Over the last 20 years the best models climate scientists had failed to predict the amount of warming we actually had. Scientists that were not consumed by group think would have considered the possibility that climate models were wrong and needed to be fixed to match the real world. However, instead they ignored the real world and clung to be notion that the models could not be wrong and instead went about manipulating the various datasets until they produced something the could claim to be agreement with models.

No scientist designing models for use with aircraft design would ever consider such shady tactics. If you suspect the data you get new data. You don't manipulate data with subjective ad-hoc corrections until the data matches what you wish it to be.

If aircraft scientists manipulated data as you seem to suggest environmental scientists you happen to disagree with do, we'd all be dead. Your so called "groupthink" says a 747 needs ~ 180 mph to lift off. Don't try to challenge that with me on board OK?
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 09:17:51 pm by Omni »

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #591 on: May 22, 2019, 09:20:59 pm »
If aircraft manipulated data as you seem to suggest scientists you happen to disagree with do, we'd all be dead. Your so called "groupthink" says a 747 needs ~ 180 mph to lift off.
Exactly. Climate scientists live in a world where they never need to worry about being held accountable for bad models so they can get away with all kinds of data abuses that would never be tolerated in fields where the real world is the final judge. That why climate science should never be treated as a field of knowledge equal to fields like aircraft design where replicable experiments are possible. Climate science is uncertain by its nature and claims of absolute certainty are not supportable.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 09:23:25 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #592 on: May 22, 2019, 09:31:50 pm »
Exactly. Climate scientists live in a world where they never need to worry about being held accountable for bad models so they can get away with all kinds of data abuses that would never be tolerated in fields where the real world is the final judge. That why climate science should never be treated as a field of knowledge equal to fields like aircraft design where replicable experiments are possible. Climate science is uncertain by its nature and claims of absolute certainty are not supportable.

Climate scientists have shown what has and is happening and show how burning fossil fuels has effected it. Predicting what the future will bring can best be predicated on the evidence so far. But who knows, maybe we'll get hit by a meteorite and have another ice age and global warming will no longer be a concern. Failing that we'd be smart to deal with the cuirrent facts.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #593 on: May 22, 2019, 09:36:44 pm »
Climate scientists have shown what has and is happening and show how burning fossil fuels has effected it.
I don't dispute those parts of their claims because the physics of GHGs can be verified with replicable experiments. Where this get uncertain is when they claim to predict how much warming will occur or what the consequences will be for human society. Those claims are inherently uncertain because they have no way to do replicable experiments to validate their hypotheses.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #594 on: May 22, 2019, 09:44:45 pm »
I don't dispute those parts of their claims because the physics of GHGs can be verified with replicable experiments. Where this get uncertain is when they claim to predict how much warming will occur or what the consequences will be for human society. Those claims are inherently uncertain because they have no way to do replicable experiments to validate their hypotheses.

Well here's a for instance for ya: while we've never been here when the polar ice caps (especially the antarctic) haven't been frozen, we know very well what will happen when they do melt, and that they are melting. It's simple math and observation.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #595 on: May 22, 2019, 09:51:53 pm »
Well here's a for instance for ya: while we've never been here when the polar ice caps (especially the antarctic) haven't been frozen, we know very well what will happen when they do melt, and that they are melting. It's simple math and observation.
But we don't know when this might happen. The more plausible scenarios suggest we have thousands of years before Antarctica melts. If that is the case the coming flip of the magnetic field would be much more devastating for humans. It is impossible to know if the more crazy melt rates claimed are by some have any connection to reality.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 09:54:10 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #596 on: May 22, 2019, 10:06:30 pm »
But we don't know when this might happen. The more plausible scenarios suggest we have thousands of years before Antarctica melts. If that is the case the coming flip of the magnetic field would be much more devastating for humans. It is impossible to know if the more crazy melt rates claimed are by some have any connection to reality.

Ice melts, on both polls are not "claimed" they are observed. And of course don't forget Greenland.

Offline Granny

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #597 on: May 22, 2019, 10:53:46 pm »
Over the last 20 years the best models climate scientists had failed to predict the amount of warming we actually had.

We agree that's a problem.

The kids call it a climate emergency.
Kids are smart.
Some municipal governments too.
Banks.
Shareholders.
Everybody's evaluating their exposure to climate change.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #598 on: May 22, 2019, 11:11:04 pm »
Everybody's evaluating their exposure to climate change.
And if they do that honestly they will either realize there is no useful information available about the potential benefits and harms which means they can't do anything or that any problems will appear slowly enough that they can adapt as needed.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #599 on: May 22, 2019, 11:16:24 pm »
And if they do that honestly they will either realize there is no useful information available about the potential benefits and harms which means they can't do anything or that any problems will appear slowly enough that they can adapt as needed.

So at least it seems you are coming to the realization that there is a need for adaptation. So maybe now it's a discussion of how quickly, and by what means do we need to adapt. On way or another there is a last barrel of sludge down in the dirt.