Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 28610 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #330 on: February 23, 2019, 02:06:33 pm »
Way faster - over twice as fast, Musk demonstrated that years ago.
Yawn. Showing that something can technically be done does not make it economically viable.

I expect a big issue was maintaining a stock of batteries, and dealing with either the concept of a leased battery pack or providing a method to return your original battery pack on a subsequent "refueling". Those issues however would not be real issues for fleet services.
Taxi companies reduce capital costs by buying stock vehicles. Any scenario that required a company to buy specialized vehicles would significantly increase capital costs. On top of this the taxi company would now be responsible for building and maintaining the refueling infrastructure and taxis would be frequently required to return to that central facility (incurring costs and lost revenue) while they make the trip. In the meantime their competitors with ICE vehicles will be laughing at them all the way to the bank.

I am sorry, but that "solution" makes the economic viability of EVs in the taxi industry much much worse.  The fact that Telsa took a pass on the technology once they did the math should have given you pause.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 02:10:24 pm by TimG »

Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #331 on: February 23, 2019, 02:18:04 pm »
On top of this the taxi company would now be responsible for building and maintaining the refueling infrastructure and taxis would be frequently required to return to that central facility (incurring costs and lost revenue) while they make the trip.

Taxi cab companies with company owned fleets often have central garages for repair, refueling, and driver switching. It would also be sensible to locate service facilities near airports and other areas where taxis frequent. Metro taxi companies also use natural gas and have their own facilities for refueling.

Taxi companies reduce capital costs by buying stock vehicles.

Actually taxi companies are far more interested in operating costs than buying stock vehicles. It has always been that way.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #332 on: February 23, 2019, 02:19:13 pm »
Yawn. Showing that something can technically be done does not make it economically viable.
Taxi companies reduce capital costs by buying stock vehicles. Any scenario that required a company to buy specialized vehicles would significantly increase capital costs. On top of this the taxi company would now be responsible for building and maintaining the refueling infrastructure and taxis would be frequently required to return to that central facility (incurring costs and lost revenue) while they make the trip. In the meantime their competitors with ICE vehicles will be laughing at them all the way to the bank.

I am sorry, but that "solution" makes the economic viability of EVs in the taxi industry much much worse.  The fact that Telsa took a pass on the technology once they did the math should have given you pause.

Ah no, it won't be the taxi companies who will have to build the recharge stations, it will be the car companies who plan to sell a lot of EV's, especially in the US in the near future. You may have heard of a couple of them, Volkswagen, Porsche.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17252088/vw-porsche-electric-car-charging-station-us

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #333 on: February 23, 2019, 02:30:43 pm »
Taxi cab companies with company owned fleets often have central garages for repair, refueling, and driver switching. It would also be sensible to locate service facilities near airports and other areas where taxis frequent. Metro taxi companies also use natural gas and have their own facilities for refueling.
Yet natural gas/propane based cab companies are very rare. That should tell you something about the economic value of using stock vehicles that can be refueled anywhere. Uber's entire business model is built on using stock vehicles.

Actually taxi companies are far more interested in operating costs than buying stock vehicles. It has always been that way.
Capital costs cannot be ignored because cars depreciate and need replacing. That said, the biggest cost for cab companies is down time. A car not carrying paying passengers is losing money. Companies that can minimize that will do better. A company could invest in all of the facilities to keep a fleet of EVs running only to find that a competitor with ICE vehicles is doing better because of more running time.

Of course, running a taxi company in most cities is more about crony capitalism than the free market. So I am sure some cities will simply mandate EVs cabs, ban Uber and force consumers to pay.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 02:37:33 pm by TimG »

Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #334 on: February 23, 2019, 02:44:48 pm »
Uber's entire business model is built on using stock vehicles.

What? Uber doesn't own any vehicles, their entire business model is about passing messages and collecting a commission. Yes, they are experimenting with self driving vehicles which may change their business model in the future, but that is far, far, far from stock vehicles.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #335 on: February 23, 2019, 02:46:04 pm »
Taxi cab companies with company owned fleets often have central garages for repair, refueling, and driver switching. It would also be sensible to locate service facilities near airports and other areas where taxis frequent. Metro taxi companies also use natural gas and have their own facilities for refueling.

Actually taxi companies are far more interested in operating costs than buying stock vehicles. It has always been that way.

It has to be at least 10 years ago I arrived at the airport in YYJ and jumped in a cab to go into town. As we pulled away from the curb I realized I wasn't hearing any engine noise. It was my first ride in a Prius. I chatted with the driver on the way and he could not have been happier with this vehicle. He and his brother had bought it and drove it night and day. I can't recall the numbers he quoted me just now but it was a huge savings for them. The vehicle itself was comparable to other 4 door compacts, but the difference in fuel savings was the big deal. There whole fleet for a long time has been either updated hybrids or EV's. 

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #336 on: February 23, 2019, 02:48:33 pm »
What? Uber doesn't own any vehicles, their entire business model is about passing messages and collecting a commission. Yes, they are experimenting with self driving vehicles which may change their business model in the future, but that is far, far, far from stock vehicles.
Their business model depends on individuals buying vehicles and making them available for fares. This is how some tax cab companies work too where the drivers own their own vehicle and the company just provides the name and dispatch services. In both cases the business model depends on *stock* vehicles being used as cabs: models which will do not work if specialized cabs with replaceable battery packs are needed.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 02:51:39 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #337 on: February 23, 2019, 02:52:05 pm »
Their business model depends on individuals buying vehicles and making them available for fares. This is how some tax cab companies work too where the drivers own their own vehicle and the company just provides the name and dispatch services. In both cases the business model depends on *stock* vehicles being used as cabs.

Yeah, like as I pointed out, stock hybrids or EV's.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #338 on: February 23, 2019, 02:53:31 pm »
Yeah, like as I pointed out, stock hybrids or EV's.
Stock EVs have a huge problem with recharging times. Such a problem does not exist for hybrids so it is silly to treat them as a comparable tech.

Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #339 on: February 23, 2019, 03:01:16 pm »
I don't know where you are going with the "stock vehicle" argument. Replaceable battery packs are about servicing infrastructure, not the vehicle itself.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #340 on: February 23, 2019, 03:08:25 pm »
I don't know where you are going with the "stock vehicle" argument. Replaceable battery packs are about servicing infrastructure, not the vehicle itself.
EVs on the market today have the batteries embedded in the vehicle and cannot be used with replaceable battery packs. A vehicle that can use replaceable battery packs needs to be designed for that purpose. So a taxi company that wanted to use replaceable battery packs would have to acquire specialized vehicles rather than simply buying standard vehicles (i.e. stock vehicles). This will mean higher cost, lower quality and less selection for the vehicles themselves. The cost of the infrastructure would be on top of the extra costs for the vehicles.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #341 on: February 23, 2019, 03:10:51 pm »
Stock EVs have a huge problem with recharging times. Such a problem does not exist for hybrids so it is silly to treat them as a comparable tech.

And as those recharge times continue to reduce with improved battery efficiency EV's will continue to catch up.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #342 on: February 23, 2019, 03:15:00 pm »
EVs on the market today have the batteries embedded in the vehicle and cannot be used with replaceable battery packs. A vehicle that can use replaceable battery packs needs to be designed for that purpose. So a taxi company that wanted to use replaceable battery packs would have to acquire specialized vehicles rather than simply buying standard vehicles (i.e. stock vehicles). This will mean higher cost, lower quality and less selection for the vehicles themselves. The cost of the infrastructure would be on top of the extra costs for the vehicles.

As has already been pointed out, car manufacturers who plan to sell EV's are also planning to install the infrastructure. Kind of like Exxon investing in Cadillac back in the day.

Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #343 on: February 23, 2019, 03:24:22 pm »
EVs on the market today have the batteries embedded in the vehicle and cannot be used with replaceable battery packs.

Go back to the video I posted above about a stock Tesla model S. It is entirely about the infrastructure. Perhaps there are some vehicles that might make it more difficult, but that is not a general case. The Tesla model 3 is more difficult to swap, although Tesla did file a patent for relevant technology a couple of years ago. From what I understand, the model X is similar to the model S, although nothing has been demonstrated as far as I know.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 03:30:49 pm by ?Impact »

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #344 on: February 23, 2019, 03:48:26 pm »
Go back to the video I posted above about a stock Tesla model S. It is entirely about the infrastructure. Perhaps there are some vehicles that might make it more difficult, but that is not a general case. The Tesla model 3 is more difficult to swap, although Tesla did file a patent for relevant technology a couple of years ago. From what I understand, the model X is similar to the model S, although nothing has been demonstrated as far as I know.
There is a huge difference between what Telsa is doing and a generic swappable battery. In the Telsa case a battery designed by Telsa for a specific model can be swapped out but that is way too limiting to support generic infrastructure that can work with vehicles from any manufacturer. There may be cases where a fleet commits to a single model/maker but once they make that commitment they would be locked in because switching to another model/maker would require a brand new pool of batteries.

Remember this is not a debate about what can be technically done. This is a debate about what options are the most cost effective. The disadvantages of EVs are real and they cost money to overcome. Delivering the same service at a higher cost is not progress.