Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 28529 times)

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Offline wilber

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #90 on: August 31, 2017, 05:10:15 pm »
We should talk after Tesla crashes and burns. Companies are spending money on EVs but I have seen no evidence that this is more than a case of hedging bets in the face of possible future regulations. EVs are still too expensive and charging times too long to make the viable for most consumers.

Also, the problems with the grid and supply are real. Too many EVs on a block and the local grid will go down. Given how incompetently the electricity supply has been managed over the last 10 years it is naive to assume that these problems are going disappear.

When car companies put billions into this technology they will be pressuring government to implement legislation so they can get a payback from their investment.

We know from experience that new technology gets better and cheaper all the time. I remember an engineer friend of mine getting the first electronic maths calculator I had ever seen. It was a big Texas instrument thing that he paid over $200 for in the mid seventies or about $900 in today's dollars. Now the calculator app on your cell phone will do a more than that thing ever did.

The grid issue isn't what it is **** up to be. Demand will be increased but most of it will be during off peak times when people are sleeping and their cars are charging.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #91 on: August 31, 2017, 05:27:50 pm »
We know from experience that new technology gets better and cheaper all the time.
A naive view. 90% of the technology improvement came from better integrated circuit designs. This allowed more to be done with less physical hardware. Batteries and energy storage are different - they require physical matter to store charge that can only be reduced so much. This no 'moore's law' for batteries. Also the charging time is a simple function Volts*Amps and no technology improvement will change the basic math. The charging time will always be a function of the size of the wire you have to deliver power. The wires we have now were not designed for widespread EV use.

The grid issue isn't what it is **** up to be. Demand will be increased but most of it will be during off peak times when people are sleeping and their cars are charging.
It would cost ~5000 to upgrade my 100A connection to my house to support 1 EV for night time charging. If everyone on the block did it the neighborhood transformer would need to be doubled. If several neighborhood did the lines to bring power to the city would need an major upgrade. Who is going pay for this?

These are real issues and I have zero confidence that our incompetent governments will be able to deal with it.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 05:33:48 pm by TimG »
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #92 on: August 31, 2017, 05:40:34 pm »
A naive view. 90% of the technology improvement came from better integrated circuit designs. This allowed more to be done with less physical hardware. Batteries and energy storage are different - they require physical matter to store charge that can only be reduced so much. This no 'moore's law' for batteries. Also the charging time is a simple function Volts*Amps and no technology improvement will change the basic math. The charging time will always be a function of the size of the wire you have to deliver power. The wires we have now were not designed for widespread EV use.
It would cost ~5000 to upgrade my 100A connection to my house to support 1 EV for night time charging. If everyone on the block did it the neighborhood transformer would need to be doubled. If several neighborhood did the lines to bring power to the city would need an major upgrade. Who is going pay for this?

These are real issues and I have zero confidence that our incompetent governments will be able to deal with it.

Perhaps you should try to take a lesson from history: how many gas stations were there when the pollution spewing, gas guzzling Ford hit the roads? Did we adapt, yes, will we do so again, yes. And it will be to our benefit.

Offline wilber

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #93 on: August 31, 2017, 05:49:19 pm »
A naive view. 90% of the technology improvement came from better integrated circuit designs. This allowed more to be done with less physical hardware. Batteries and energy storage are different - they require physical matter to store charge that can only be reduced so much. This no 'moore's law' for batteries. Also the charging time is a simple function Volts*Amps and no technology improvement will change the basic math. The charging time will always be a function of the size of the wire you have to deliver power. The wires we have now were not designed for widespread EV use.
It would cost ~5000 to upgrade my 100A connection to my house to support 1 EV for night time charging. If everyone on the block did it the neighborhood transformer would need to be doubled. If several neighborhood did the lines to bring power to the city would need an major upgrade. Who is going pay for this?

These are real issues and I have zero confidence that our incompetent governments will be able to deal with it.

I think it will take more time than many of its fans are claiming but it will be done. Charging points can be mandated into all new construction which will make it cheaper. Mass production also drives costs down as volumes go up. It is also wrong to fixate on our own situation where we travel greater distances. Much of the world is not like that and Europe already uses a 220V electrical grid, so they only draw half as many amps to produce the same wattage. Mainland China is now the world largest vehicle market and it is also 220V.  Because of increased electrical demands in our vehicles themselves, expect to see cars with 24V or 48V electrical systems in the future. Automakers are already saying we are approaching the limit of 12V systems.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 05:53:37 pm by wilber »
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #94 on: August 31, 2017, 06:23:35 pm »
I think whenever I have a few bucks left over to invest it will be toward EV's rather than GHG's.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-electric-cars-electricity-system-1.3526558

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #95 on: September 03, 2018, 08:37:41 am »

Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #96 on: September 04, 2018, 01:41:18 pm »
How much hotter is your hometown than when you were born ?

Interesting, my hometown (Montreal, 1960) remains at 1 day per year.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #97 on: September 04, 2018, 06:41:15 pm »


Called a 'conservative' solution on climate change... it's not really but still interesting.

I like how the coal museum in Kentucky uses solar panels.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/06/us/coal-museum-goes-solar-trnd/index.html
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #98 on: September 04, 2018, 06:45:43 pm »
I guess he's on the record as saying climate change isn't to be blamed on capitalism.

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #99 on: September 04, 2018, 09:58:44 pm »
I think whenever I have a few bucks left over to invest it will be toward EV's rather than GHG's.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-electric-cars-electricity-system-1.3526558

I wouldn't invest in them.  Tesla is in huge debt and has never turned a profit.  If EVs shown signs of being popular the big car companies would quickly jump in with their own models.

If people didn't buy into hybrids much I don't see why they would for EVs.  I hope it happens ASAP but i don't want one yet.

The US gets 17% of its electricity from renewables, so EVs won't be 100% renewable, only 17%...for now.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2018, 10:08:57 pm by Coonlight Graham »
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #100 on: September 05, 2018, 06:06:58 am »
... only 17%...for now.

That's one of the points the video above is making: we know where the trend is going so why aren't businesses going there ? 

Offline wilber

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #101 on: September 05, 2018, 11:57:13 am »
If EVs shown signs of being popular the big car companies would quickly jump in with their own models.



They are. China and Europe are dictating where auto development is headed, no longer the US which is abandoning smaller efficient vehicles for trucks and SUV's.

The Chinese and European markets are each larger than the North American market which is now #3.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41231766

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2017/10/10/china-raises-the-bar-with-new-electric-vehicle-rules/#5c80197677ac

Jaguar just came out with its I Pace electric SUV which is a less expensive alternative to the Tesla Model X.  Mercedes and Audi are about to unveil their first electrics any day now and Porsche is coming out with a direct competitor to the Tesla Model S.

Major competition on the way from the big guys with deeper pockets is what makes Tesla risky, not the fact they build EV's.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2018, 12:00:17 pm by wilber »
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Offline ?Impact

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #102 on: September 05, 2018, 04:05:07 pm »
Tesla is in huge debt and has never turned a profit.

Actually they did turn a profit in two quarters. The point however is their revenue continues to increase. Contrast their debt with other car companies.


Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #103 on: September 05, 2018, 05:12:34 pm »
Major competition on the way from the big guys with deeper pockets is what makes Tesla risky, not the fact they build EV's.

I think it's both.  It's not even that they build EV's, it's the spending vs revenue problem of that specific company.  They're doing so much R&D that other car co's are just going mirror anyways.  Tesla cars are sexy and have that trendy brand name, I think they'll do at least ok, maybe even really good.  But their shares have gone up 2000% but hardly any sales to back it up, which makes it very risky.  Those shares are not an investment they're a gamble.

Warren Buffett wouldn't touch Tesla stocks with a 10-foot pole.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #104 on: September 05, 2018, 05:24:51 pm »
Actually they did turn a profit in two quarters. The point however is their revenue continues to increase. Contrast their debt with other car companies.
The only time Tesla made a profit is when they cashed some of their government subsidy cheques (zero emission allowance credits that only have value because car makers that need to make cars that people actually want are forced to buy them).