Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 6550 times)

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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #885 on: November 30, 2019, 12:53:25 pm »
My point is that we can have high probability of certainty that the earth will keep warming throughout the century, though because of a massive # of variables we won't know precisely by how much science can predict a general range +/- a certain amount, as shown in all the models and IPCC reports.  There are also a lot of interacting variables in how this warming will affect different species and ecosystems so it's impossible for science to predict exactly how CC will affect the earth but science can take educated guesses on how it will will varying degrees of probability/certainty, as also seen in the IPCC reports.

My other point was that this is also how predicting weather works.  We don't know with 100% certainty if it's going to rain 4 days from now but they always will post the P.O.P. (probability of precipitation) based on an educated guess using computer models.  Obviously climate and weather models are vastly different but the basic methodology is similar.  It's all based on gathering as much data on as many interacting variables as possible and calculating probabilities of future outcomes.

Actually a forecast of rain in 4 days in not so much based on computer models as it is on what we can see from satellites looking down from space showing where the clouds are, and where they are heading. Climate change is more based on computer modelling and is also based on if the temp. rises this much than this will be the outcome. If it rises more then the outcome will be more severe. Hence the reason for attempting to slow the warming trend.