Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 6550 times)

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Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #915 on: December 09, 2019, 08:25:13 am »

But then, I quit smoking twenty years ago.

Good for you !

Offline bcsapper

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #916 on: December 09, 2019, 07:03:11 pm »
Good for you !

Thank you.  It still counts as one of my finest achievements.  How are you doing with it?
Time for bed said Zebedee...

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #917 on: December 09, 2019, 09:17:37 pm »
Thank you.  It still counts as one of my finest achievements.  How are you doing with it?

Well... fine I guess.  in 8 days it will be 1 1/2 years.  I took out an insurance policy where I swore that I was a non-smoker so there's that now.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #918 on: December 09, 2019, 09:27:26 pm »
The only time preventive action is not necessitated is when something is BOTH unlikely to occur and has low consequences.
The table does not apply to the climate change because it is simply not possible to make any claim about the likelihood of major consequences from climate change. To illustrate the problem look at tobacco: we can quantify the risk of developing cancer from smoking because we have the experience of millions of smokers to use as a basis for calculation which means the result of the calculations is very credible. No such equivalent exists with the alleged consequences of climate change because these consequences have never occurred before. Making a claim about climate change today would be like someone making a claim that smoking causes cancer based on rat testing before anyone ever actually developed cancer. The rat testing would be sufficient to argue that there is a concern but it would NOT be sufficient to make the claim that cancer is a likely outcome of smoking.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 09:38:05 pm by TimG »
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Offline bcsapper

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #919 on: December 09, 2019, 09:42:45 pm »
Well... fine I guess.  in 8 days it will be 1 1/2 years.  I took out an insurance policy where I swore that I was a non-smoker so there's that now.

18 months you'd have to choose to go back now.  Well done.  Think how much you're saving. 

I have no idea what a pack costs these days, but I must be saving thousands.  My wife quit too.
Time for bed said Zebedee...
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #920 on: December 09, 2019, 10:54:15 pm »
The table does not apply to the climate change because it is simply not possible to make any claim about the likelihood of major consequences from climate change. To illustrate the problem look at tobacco: we can quantify the risk of developing cancer from smoking because we have the experience of millions of smokers to use as a basis for calculation which means the result of the calculations is very credible. No such equivalent exists with the alleged consequences of climate change because these consequences have never occurred before. Making a claim about climate change today would be like someone making a claim that smoking causes cancer based on rat testing before anyone ever actually developed cancer. The rat testing would be sufficient to argue that there is a concern but it would NOT be sufficient to make the claim that cancer is a likely outcome of smoking.

These consequences certainly have occurred before, but they weren't man made back then.
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #921 on: December 09, 2019, 10:57:42 pm »
18 months you'd have to choose to go back now.  Well done.  Think how much you're saving. 

I have no idea what a pack costs these days, but I must be saving thousands.  My wife quit too.

A buddy told me recently he pays 15 bucks a pack now. I quite just before they hit 5. I've saved a ton. I spend a portion on single malt which is far healthier. ;)
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Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #922 on: December 09, 2019, 11:01:13 pm »
These consequences certainly have occurred before, but they weren't man made back then.
We know even less about what happened in the past. People make guesses and build narratives that suit their prejudices, however, cherrying picking data from the chemical composition of rocks to suit a narrative is nothing compared to the real data we have about the correlation between smoking and cancer. It is simply wrong to pretend that we can make any definitive claim about the likelihood of future outcomes as consequence of climate change. We can't. The necessary data does not exist.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 11:03:32 pm by TimG »
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #923 on: December 09, 2019, 11:11:41 pm »
We know even less about what happened in the past. People make guesses and build narratives that suit their prejudices, however, cherrying picking data from the chemical composition of rocks to suit a narrative is nothing compared to the real data we have about the correlation between smoking and cancer. It is simply wrong to pretend that we can make any definitive claim about the likelihood of future outcomes as consequence of climate change. We can't. The necessary data does not exist.

Have a look at the sat. pics. of how much arctic sea ice has melted all of a sudden, historically speaking. No guess work needed there. A good place for you to start.
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Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #924 on: December 10, 2019, 06:40:59 am »
A buddy told me recently he pays 15 bucks a pack now. I quite just before they hit 5. I've saved a ton. I spend a portion on single malt which is far healthier. ;)

You could almost buy a $500 bottle a month.
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Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #925 on: December 10, 2019, 08:05:01 am »
I see the yahoos who are unable to to have reasonable discussion with people that happen to have a different opinion are still around. Flagging posts that make a reasonable point as 'dumb' just because you disagree with them is emblematic of the partisan divides that are fracturing society. It is only slightly less insulting than calling people names because they do not share your opinion on controversial topics. 
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Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #926 on: December 10, 2019, 08:08:36 am »
Have a look at the sat. pics. of how much arctic sea ice has melted all of a sudden, historically speaking. No guess work needed there. A good place for you to start.
Ice extent is decreasing in some places bu increasing in others. So what? That does not mean we know that there is a high likelihood of major consequences.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #927 on: December 10, 2019, 08:38:35 am »
I see the yahoos who are unable to to have reasonable discussion with people that happen to have a different opinion are still around. Flagging posts that make a reasonable point as 'dumb' just because you disagree with them is emblematic of the partisan divides that are fracturing society. It is only slightly less insulting than calling people names because they do not share your opinion on controversial topics.

Well, thanks for not doing that then...  :)

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #928 on: December 10, 2019, 08:39:50 am »
Ice extent is decreasing in some places bu increasing in others. So what? That does not mean we know that there is a high likelihood of major consequences.

To turn my point back to you - we can say with authority that we are at risk, though, and that action may be prudent.

Like I say - a huge gulf between "high risk" and "certain doom".  A bigger one between "high risk" and "wait and see and adapt to whatever comes".
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Offline bcsapper

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #929 on: December 10, 2019, 09:01:32 am »
A buddy told me recently he pays 15 bucks a pack now. I quite just before they hit 5. I've saved a ton. I spend a portion on single malt which is far healthier. ;)

15 bucks a pack.  That's insane.  I used to smoke a pack a day, and so did my wife.  We would be spending ~$1000/month on them now.

Edit>  I see MH already made that point. 
Time for bed said Zebedee...