Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 6550 times)

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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #870 on: November 28, 2019, 09:27:25 pm »
Do you not know what 'certainty' means ?

Do you know the difference between risk and certainty ?

If I bring my umbrella does that mean it 100% will rain ?

I know for instance, that they hired this man not because of a "risk" but because of reality. Warm air causes ice to melt, which causes water levels to rise, which flows into coastal communities. You don't need a PHD. in environmental science to understand those basics.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #871 on: November 28, 2019, 09:28:46 pm »
  The ice falling off there is showing up in sea level rise as predicted.

Predicting temperatures and sea ice extent is one thing and you're right those are hard metrics that you can predict with a model, and improve on and so on.   But you can't predict exactly what it will be. 

The reason I said "It's time for this article" isn't about those kinds of predictions it is, as the headline says, about apocalyptic predictions of human impact. 

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #872 on: November 28, 2019, 09:32:24 pm »
1. I know for instance, that they hired this man not because of a "risk" but because of reality.
2. Warm air causes ice to melt, which causes water levels to rise, which flows into coastal communities. You don't need a PHD. in environmental science to understand those basics.

1. That sentence is meaningless.  "Risk" means probability of something happening in reality.
2. But flooded cities are not a certainty.  You can't say with certainty that Maldives will be under water in 20 years, or humans will be extinct.

You CAN say that temperatures are predicted to increase 3 degrees, which COULD result in greater and more numerous storms, threats to cities etc. 

There's a difference in the language, and this is important.  The more we drive people to the science the more power the science will have on policy.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #873 on: November 28, 2019, 09:33:49 pm »
Predicting temperatures and sea ice extent is one thing and you're right those are hard metrics that you can predict with a model, and improve on and so on.   But you can't predict exactly what it will be. 

The reason I said "It's time for this article" isn't about those kinds of predictions it is, as the headline says, about apocalyptic predictions of human impact.

Indeed, that kind of stuff could make people just throw their hands in the air and say well then nothing I can do.
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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #874 on: November 28, 2019, 09:37:12 pm »
1. That sentence is meaningless.  "Risk" means probability of something happening in reality.
2. But flooded cities are not a certainty.  You can't say with certainty that Maldives will be under water in 20 years, or humans will be extinct.

You CAN say that temperatures are predicted to increase 3 degrees, which COULD result in greater and more numerous storms, threats to cities etc. 

There's a difference in the language, and this is important.  The more we drive people to the science the more power the science will have on policy.

1. Not sure where you going with that. NYC hired the guy not because of a risk, but because of a reality
2. The Maldives already are becoming inundated. Again not risk, but reality.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #875 on: November 28, 2019, 10:09:44 pm »
1. Not sure where you going with that. NYC hired the guy not because of a risk, but because of a reality
2. The Maldives already are becoming inundated. Again not risk, but reality.

1. "Not a risk, but a reality" seems to make no sense to me.  Risk is a real thing.  If you don't wear a seatbelt you are incurring risk.  It doesn't mean you will die in a car crash but you are more likely two.

2. Inundated for drinking water, not submerged.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #876 on: November 28, 2019, 10:13:29 pm »
You continue to try to conflate baseball/movies with actual science. The "educated guesses" as you call them relating to the latter are and have been proving themselves to be accurate.

They use science in baseball.  The movie/book was about science in baseball.  Baseball isn't run by crusty old men anymore it's run by young MIT grads.  They observe real-world events and track these events as statistics and combine them in large data sets then crunch the numbers using statistical analytics and all sorts of variables to create data models based on probabilities of the future.    This is similar to what climate scientists do when using models to predict future climate and environment changes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball

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http://I'm sure you'ved heard of Greenland? The ice falling off there is showing up in sea level rise as predicted.

Ice falling off isn't much of a prediction.  A prediction is how much is going to fall off and how will affect sea levels and various other variables.  Let's look at the data.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2019, 10:15:07 pm by Poonlight Graham »
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #877 on: November 28, 2019, 10:17:18 pm »
1. Not sure where you going with that. NYC hired the guy not because of a risk, but because of a reality
2. The Maldives already are becoming inundated. Again not risk, but reality.

Reality and risk can all be measured using data.  What has happened and what will happen.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #878 on: November 28, 2019, 10:25:13 pm »
1. "Not a risk, but a reality" seems to make no sense to me.  Risk is a real thing.  If you don't wear a seatbelt you are incurring risk.  It doesn't mean you will die in a car crash but you are more likely two.

2. Inundated for drinking water, not submerged.

The water inundating the Maldives etc. is not drinking water although it didn't start off as salt water.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #879 on: November 28, 2019, 10:29:24 pm »
They use science in baseball.  The movie/book was about science in baseball.  Baseball isn't run by crusty old men anymore it's run by young MIT grads.  They observe real-world events and track these events as statistics and combine them in large data sets then crunch the numbers using statistical analytics and all sorts of variables to create data models based on probabilities of the future.    This is similar to what climate scientists do when using models to predict future climate and environment changes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball

Ice falling off isn't much of a prediction.  A prediction is how much is going to fall off and how will affect sea levels and various other variables.  Let's look at the data.

The ice falling off Greenland isn't a prediction, it's a reality. How much it affects sea level rise is easily calculable. Throw two ice cubes in your glass of water and what do you "predict" will happen?

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #880 on: November 29, 2019, 05:44:45 am »
The water inundating the Maldives etc. is not drinking water although it didn't start off as salt water.

The Maldives situation is about the Maldives becoming "inundated", and that is because their fresh drinking water would be inundated by salt water.  This word starts to get used and people start saying Maldives will be under water which isn't what was intended.

Offline MH

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #881 on: November 29, 2019, 05:46:55 am »
The ice falling off Greenland isn't a prediction, it's a reality. How much it affects sea level rise is easily calculable. Throw two ice cubes in your glass of water and what do you "predict" will happen?

As I said, predicting a hard number from a model and predicting social impacts are entirely different things.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #882 on: November 29, 2019, 07:31:24 am »
The ice falling off Greenland isn't a prediction, it's a reality. How much it affects sea level rise is easily calculable. Throw two ice cubes in your glass of water and what do you "predict" will happen?

You yourself said the greenland ice melting and causing sea level rise was predicted.  This is what you said:

"I'm sure you'ved heard of Greenland? The ice falling off there is showing up in sea level rise as predicted".

So again you're just arguing strawmen and talking in circles and not responding to my posts.  Anyways, In a previous post i said that things like ice melt and sea level rise are one of the easier things to predict, it's a lot harder to predict what will happen to different ecosystems once vast amounts of ice-cold water enters the oceans or shorelines are interrupted or oceans become more acidic due to CO2 etc because it affects so many species like a cascading effect.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #883 on: November 29, 2019, 11:22:53 am »
You yourself said the greenland ice melting and causing sea level rise was predicted.  This is what you said:

"I'm sure you'ved heard of Greenland? The ice falling off there is showing up in sea level rise as predicted".

So again you're just arguing strawmen and talking in circles and not responding to my posts.  Anyways, In a previous post i said that things like ice melt and sea level rise are one of the easier things to predict, it's a lot harder to predict what will happen to different ecosystems once vast amounts of ice-cold water enters the oceans or shorelines are interrupted or oceans become more acidic due to CO2 etc because it affects so many species like a cascading effect.

Predicting sea level rise due to ice melt is basic math, hardly a "strawman". You can find a map of what Florida, for instance, will look like after the Thwaites Glacier is done. Of course how various ocean inhabitants will be able to adjust is a little harder to predict. Safe to say it won't be a good outcome for most.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #884 on: November 29, 2019, 01:36:15 pm »
Predicting sea level rise due to ice melt is basic math, hardly a "strawman".

You just did it again!  You don't even know what strawman of yours i'm referring to.  Your reading comprehension is horrible.

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You can find a map of what Florida, for instance, will look like after the Thwaites Glacier is done. Of course how various ocean inhabitants will be able to adjust is a little harder to predict. Safe to say it won't be a good outcome for most

Yes I know, you just restated the point i just made.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019