Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 6578 times)

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Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #45 on: August 27, 2017, 02:47:39 pm »
So what? If "experts" act like political partisans when faced with other experts who disagree then they have obviously forgot their training. The concept should not be hard to understand: people who have confidence in their opinions do not feel the need to bully or attack colleagues that disagree. People who lack confidence do. We should all be concerned if "experts" lack confidence in their own claims.
Sure it is fact. So what? Why should we care? As soon as you try to answer that question you are not providing facts - you are providing *opinions*.  Here is a article that looks at more facts and suggests the concerns about sea ice retreat are over done: https://judithcurry.com/2017/08/16/what-do-we-know-about-arctic-sea-ice-trends/ . Of course that is an opinion too that uses facts to support it.

Your article basically points out two facts with regard to sea ice, both the decrease in the Arctic, and the increase in the Antarctic, both caused by global warming. Increasing temps. at the south pole have caused increased evaporation followed by precipitation, and of course I'm sure you understand that when sea water evaporate it doesn't take the salt with it, and therefore the salt content of the surface water is reduced, allowing it to freeze at higher temps. It may be confusing to think that more ice can be caused by warming, but such is science.

Offline JMT

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #46 on: August 27, 2017, 03:11:10 pm »
There've been warning about the effects of pollution since the 60s, and we haven't figured anything out yet, so I'm not as certain.   Still, oil companies and maybe even Saudia Arabia seem to be looking to get out of the fossil fuel industry, so that's something.   
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/15/shell-creates-green-energy-division-to-invest-in-wind-power
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/01/saudi-arabia-plans-to-sell-state-oil-assets-to-create-2tn-wealth-fund

Anyway, I hope your optimism beats out my pessimism.

Actually, the world is less polluted in many ways than in the past.  The air is cleaner (outside of a few places), for one.  Humanity tends to deal with problems when we have to, and not before.

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #47 on: August 27, 2017, 03:14:11 pm »
Your article basically points out two facts with regard to sea ice, both the decrease in the Arctic, and the increase in the Antarctic, both caused by global warming.
The article also points out that the climate models cannot reproduce the likely historical trends in sea ice which means the models' ability to predict future trends is zero. Hand waving about sea salinity does make the problems with the models go away.

Science is useful when it tells us what we don't know but the problem with climate science is the "approved narrative" does not allow scientists to acknowledge that the models are poor approximations of the real world and should never be treated as "predictions".  Statements like 2degC as the limit to prevent "dangerous" warming are unscientific nonsense.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 03:16:17 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #48 on: August 27, 2017, 03:25:13 pm »
The article also points out that the climate models cannot reproduce the likely historical trends in sea ice which means the models' ability to predict future trends is zero. Hand waving about sea salinity does make the problems with the models go away.

Science is useful when it tells us what we don't know but the problem with climate science is the "approved narrative" does not allow scientists to acknowledge that the models are poor approximations of the real world and should never be treated as "predictions".  Statements like 2degC as the limit to prevent "dangerous" warming are unscientific nonsense.

The good news is that the people who understand what is going on are bailing out of fossil fuel markets, (hence the prices), and moving heavily into renewables such as solar and wind. I suspect nuclear will be revisited as well.   

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #49 on: August 27, 2017, 04:11:43 pm »
The good news is that the people who understand what is going on are bailing out of fossil fuel markets, (hence the prices), and moving heavily into renewables such as solar and wind. I suspect nuclear will be revisited as well.
Well, no one with knowledge of how the energy system works takes such claims seriously:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/images/figure_1-6.png

Coal/gas/nuclear/hydro power will provide the majority of our electricity for the foreseeable future.
(note that >1/2 of the 2040 estimate for renewables is hydro-power).

If electric cars take off we will need to build many more gas/coal/nuclear plants to meet the new demand.

Of course we could refuse to build the necessary capacity based on misguided obession with CO2 but that would simply delay or block the adoption of EVs.

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #50 on: August 27, 2017, 04:40:33 pm »
Well, no one with knowledge of how the energy system works takes such claims seriously:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/images/figure_1-6.png

Coal/gas/nuclear/hydro power will provide the majority of our electricity for the foreseeable future.
(note that >1/2 of the 2040 estimate for renewables is hydro-power).

If electric cars take off we will need to build many more gas/coal/nuclear plants to meet the new demand.

Of course we could refuse to build the necessary capacity based on misguided obession with CO2 but that would simply delay or block the adoption of EVs.

When the Bank of Abu Dhabi abandons investments in fossil fuels in lieu of renewables, you can bet they have done their research.
https://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/national-bank-abu-dhabi-even-10-barrel-oil-couldnt-match-solar-cost.html

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #51 on: August 27, 2017, 05:09:39 pm »
When the Bank of Abu Dhabi abandons investments in fossil fuels in lieu of renewables, you can bet they have done their research.
The report in question was dealing with the viability of solar in a country in a tropical desert that currently uses oil to generate electricity. The article attempted extend the analysis beyond the scope of the report which is nonsense. In any case, the cost of solar is not from the cost of solar panels - the cost comes from the backup power and/or grid scale storage required to deal with the variability. Hand waving assurances that the 'storage cost is coming down' does not make solar cheaper than the alternatives - especially in northern latitudes with half the solar isolation. If we actually get real low cost storage solutions the economics will change. But we don't have them today and pretending we do is not helpful.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 05:17:10 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #52 on: August 27, 2017, 06:12:25 pm »
 But we don't have them today and pretending we do is not helpful.
[/quote]

Yes we do have the lower cost versions of solar panels, which is why even $10/bbl can't compete. The other thing you do is employ soalr during the day, and wind at night. Yes you do need some backups but total reliance on fossils is quickly going the way of the doh-doh bird.

Offline Omni

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Online wilber

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #54 on: August 27, 2017, 07:02:16 pm »
Even Texas is buying in.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-is-leading-the-way-in-renewable-energy/

China is the world's biggest producer of wind generated electricity. Has been since 2010.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #55 on: August 27, 2017, 07:19:53 pm »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #56 on: August 27, 2017, 07:32:47 pm »
China is the world's biggest producer of wind generated electricity. Has been since 2010.

Both China and India are pledging to stay on board with the Paris Accord regardless of Trump.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/15/india-china-track-exceed-paris-climate-pledges/

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #57 on: August 27, 2017, 07:39:58 pm »
Actually, the world is less polluted in many ways than in the past.  The air is cleaner (outside of a few places), for one. 

It is still essentially pollution that is causing us problems. 

Quote
Humanity tends to deal with problems when we have to, and not before.

Well, there is still time - 5 or 6 years, according to one expert I heard today, for us to get our act together and start addressing the problem.  There are also a few geoengineering ideas being batted around, but none have gone beyond the idea stage yet.   
 
Anyway, looks like renewable energy is the place to invest these days ...

Quote
Some striking facts and figures — In 2016, wind and solar beat investment in fossil fuels by 2-to-1. Global capacity additions increased again in 2016; in the United States, renewable energy accounted for 60 percent of these additions. In 2016, Portugal powered the country with renewable energy alone for four consecutive days, clean power supplied Germany’s power demand for a full day, and Denmark could produce enough wind power to meet its domestic electricity demand and have enough to export power to Norway, Germany and Sweden.

http://www.ge.com/reports/unstoppable-next-decade-belongs-renewable-energy/

Offline TimG

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #58 on: August 27, 2017, 08:09:29 pm »
Well, there is still time - 5 or 6 years, according to one expert I heard today, for us to get our act together and start addressing the problem.
The so called "expert" is just another doom monger making predictions that will be shown to be false. Should I collect a timeline "climate doom" quotes over the last 20 years with deadlines that have long past? How many would it take to convince you that you can't take such people seriously?
 
There are also a few geoengineering ideas being batted around, but none have gone beyond the idea stage yet.
Adaptation will always be cheaper and easier than expending resources trying to collect CO2.
 
Anyway, looks like renewable energy is the place to invest these days ...
Only if you believe governments will continue to maintain unsustainable subsidies. In Europe renewable investors are discovering that the public has limited willingness to pay for overpriced and unreliable power.

South Australia recently discovered the price of a mindless obsession with renewables:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/sa-blackouts-wind-farm-turbines-key-to-power-outages-report-finds/news-story/97967948bbd3f7644451ee02d61b14bf

 
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 08:34:47 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Climate Change
« Reply #59 on: August 27, 2017, 09:28:37 pm »
The so called "expert" is just another doom monger making predictions that will be shown to be false. Should I collect a timeline "climate doom" quotes over the last 20 years with deadlines that have long past? How many would it take to convince you that you can't take such people seriously?
 Adaptation will always be cheaper and easier than expending resources trying to collect CO2.
 Only if you believe governments will continue to maintain unsustainable subsidies. In Europe renewable investors are discovering that the public has limited willingness to pay for overpriced and unreliable power.

South Australia recently discovered the price of a mindless obsession with renewables:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/sa-blackouts-wind-farm-turbines-key-to-power-outages-report-finds/news-story/97967948bbd3f7644451ee02d61b14bf

Perhaps you are unaware that 149 countries signed onto the Paris accord, and 3 didn't. Nicaragua, Syria, and Oh yeah Donald Trump land. And many major US industries are  ignoring his ignorance and proceeding to adhere to the accord anyway. They understand the science, and the way to keep profits up.