Author Topic: An alternative approach to global warming  (Read 375 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2018, 03:43:44 pm »
Exactly i agree, which is why a few posts about I said to TimG: "I'd think the best solution would be one that balances costs. including money and environmental and human costs."  It's all about a cost/benefits analysis, and then after that the problem of getting every major country on board to implement it.
I agree on cost benefit but when dealing with unknowns it is very easy to concoct whatever answer you want by manipulating the assumptions used to do the analysis. The main reason why adaptation is a preferable is because you spend based on real data telling you how the local conditions are changing. i.e if the local sea level is rising you build dikes and adjust building codes. Computer models about global sea level rise are not that relevant. A second reason to prefer adaption is there is no need for global agreement on a regime that will only reward those who renege/cheat.

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2018, 03:55:10 pm »
I agree on cost benefit but when dealing with unknowns it is very easy to concoct whatever answer you want by manipulating the assumptions used to do the analysis. The main reason why adaptation is a preferable is because you spend based on real data telling you how the local conditions are changing. i.e if the local sea level is rising you build dikes and adjust building codes. Computer models about global sea level rise are not that relevant. A second reason to prefer adaption is there is no need for global agreement on a regime that will only reward those who renege/cheat.

I don't think residents of say New York City or coastal Florida have to rely on computer models to tell them about SL rise. They can just look out their windows.

Offline wilber

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2018, 04:21:31 pm »
I don't think residents of say New York City or coastal Florida have to rely on computer models to tell them about SL rise. They can just look out their windows.

Yup

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/rising-sea-levels-sfo-foster-city-1.4711621
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Offline TimG

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2018, 05:54:49 pm »
Yup
The science suggests 1m rise in a 100 years. When the dutch government looked at the issue they concluded that any sea level rises would be slow enough that the could deal with it during their normal dike maintenance cycle. The overheated claims of sea level immediately flooding large areas of coastline are basically nonsense. The rise will be slow and allow plenty of time for adaptation.

http://wlrn.org/post/what-dutch-can-teach-us-about-sea-level-rise

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But the Dutch stopped panicking about sea level rise about 800 years ago and began to address it systematically.

Dikes and levies are a big part of the plan. But the Netherlands has also learned to pick its fights, and even let the water win sometimes.

Most important lesson from the Dutch experience: no need to depend on other countries adhering to an un-enforceable treaty that would inevitably deliver the most benefits to those that cheat and leave the work to others.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 07:06:44 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2018, 08:31:35 pm »
The science suggests 1m rise in a 100 years. When the dutch government looked at the issue they concluded that any sea level rises would be slow enough that the could deal with it during their normal dike maintenance cycle. The overheated claims of sea level immediately flooding large areas of coastline are basically nonsense. The rise will be slow and allow plenty of time for adaptation.

http://wlrn.org/post/what-dutch-can-teach-us-about-sea-level-rise

Most important lesson from the Dutch experience: no need to depend on other countries adhering to an un-enforceable treaty that would inevitably deliver the most benefits to those that cheat and leave the work to others.

I meter by 2100, if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets stop melting somehow. Science suggests if Greenland goes the SL rise would be more like 7 meters. Maybe we should erect a tent over Greenland.

Offline TimG

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #35 on: July 02, 2018, 08:41:08 pm »
I meter by 2100, if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets stop melting somehow. Science suggests if Greenland goes the SL rise would be more like 7 meters. Maybe we should erect a tent over Greenland.
Stuff like show how little you understand the science. It will take thousands of years for the ice sheets to melt even under worst case scenarios: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282871121_The_multi-millennial_Antarctic_commitment_to_future_sea-level_rise

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Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.
~1m contribution over 300 years under worst case scenarios is not a rate that will be hard to adapt to.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 08:43:58 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #36 on: July 02, 2018, 08:58:27 pm »
Stuff like show how little you understand the science. It will take thousands of years for the ice sheets to melt even under worst case scenarios: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282871121_The_multi-millennial_Antarctic_commitment_to_future_sea-level_rise
~1m contribution over 300 years under worst case scenarios is not a rate that will be hard to adapt to.

Depends which ice sheet you are talking about. Perhaps you don't understand the science of the Greenland ice sheet, so let me simplify it for you. It's called topography, in other words the the cross sectional shape of Greenland. It's not flat it's quire steep therefore as global warming sends more heat into the ice at higher levels, the melt water flows downhill but then it does flatten out as the sheet approaches the coast. Hence, the water pools on the lower ice and of course absorbs more solar energy which enhances the melt. As the temps rise this scenario will accelerate, and there is a lot of ice on Greenland, contrary to it's name. 

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #37 on: July 02, 2018, 09:09:33 pm »
I've also read that it will take about 5000 years for all the ice on earth to melt.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/09/rising-seas-ice-melt-new-shoreline-maps/

"There are more than five million cubic miles of ice on Earth, and some scientists say it would take more than 5,000 years to melt it all. If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we’ll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58."
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2018, 09:20:24 pm »
I've also read that it will take about 5000 years for all the ice on earth to melt.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/09/rising-seas-ice-melt-new-shoreline-maps/

"There are more than five million cubic miles of ice on Earth, and some scientists say it would take more than 5,000 years to melt it all. If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we’ll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58."

I think I'll buy a sailboat. I'll be able to dock it at my front porch.

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2018, 10:37:45 pm »
These Greenlander's are coming coming fact to face with global warming. Literally!

https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/Greenland

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #40 on: July 26, 2018, 12:51:25 am »
So as we continue to destroy this place with GHG there may be some good news on the horizon (literally) Scientists now reckon they have found water on Mars. So I guess as we continue to suffer along with forest fires, droughts, rising sea levels, deaths from heat/pollution, we should maybe focus on a Mars transporter.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05795-6?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf194285020=1

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #41 on: August 05, 2018, 12:50:41 pm »
I just heard a news story that I found interesting on this topic. (don't have a cite yet) But the idea focuses on the Hoover Dam and involves harnessing both wind and solar power to simply pump a portion of the water that has already flowed through the dam back into the Mead Reservoir so it can feed the dam again. It's a bit of alchemy turning wind and solar into hydro and no batteries required. The "battery" in essence would be the reservoir. Makes sense to me.   

Offline ?Impact

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #42 on: August 05, 2018, 01:29:19 pm »
The "battery" in essence would be the reservoir.

Yes, pumped hydro storage has a lot of benefits. I am not sure the Hoover dam is the best example however because it also requires storage downstream of the dam to pump from. At the Hoover dam there are not a lot of downstream lakes, the closest of any size is 10 miles or more away and it is not that large itself.

A little closer to home I have been looking for good examples of where this could be carried out. The last dam on the Madawaska river just before it flows into the Ottawa river at Arnprior has potential. There is significantly large volume of water downstream of the dam and only a mile or so away. While the immediate upstream storage cannot be compared to lake Mead, it is in balance with the downstream volume and the size of the generating station.

The most interesting of course would be the great lakes, and pumping water back up hill from either Ontario to Erie, or Huron to Superior. There is enough water volume in these lakes that you are not going to appreciably alter their level, but you would still get the benefit of that volume flowing back downhill through the generating stations.

Offline TimG

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2018, 01:38:43 pm »
The "battery" in essence would be the reservoir. Makes sense to me.
Its called pumped storage and it is only storage mechanism that can theoretically provide the quantity of power that we need. The trouble is it is geographically limited and lots of places which don't already have access to hydro power will still need natural gas and nuclear base load.

MIT study looks at the limitations of batteries and why people pushing for solar/wind are clueless:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611683/the-25-trillion-reason-we-cant-rely-on-batteries-to-clean-up-the-grid/

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Ferrara’s modeling has found that such a battery could make it possible for renewables to provide 90 percent of electricity needs for most grids, for just marginally higher costs than today’s.

But it’s dangerous to bank on those kinds of battery breakthroughs—and even if Form Energy or some other company does pull it off, costs would still rise exponentially beyond the 90 percent threshold, Ferrara says.

“The risk,” Jenkins says, “is we drive up the cost of deep decarbonization in the power sector to the point where the public decides it’s simply unaffordable to continue toward zero carbon.”
Fortunately, there is a technically and economically viable solution: nuclear power. But the green zealots would rather see society driven back to the dark ages than accept a source of power they don't like.

Offline Omni

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Re: An alternative approach to global warming
« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2018, 01:46:43 pm »
Yes, pumped hydro storage has a lot of benefits. I am not sure the Hoover dam is the best example however because it also requires storage downstream of the dam to pump from. At the Hoover dam there are not a lot of downstream lakes, the closest of any size is 10 miles or more away and it is not that large itself.

A little closer to home I have been looking for good examples of where this could be carried out. The last dam on the Madawaska river just before it flows into the Ottawa river at Arnprior has potential. There is significantly large volume of water downstream of the dam and only a mile or so away. While the immediate upstream storage cannot be compared to lake Mead, it is in balance with the downstream volume and the size of the generating station.

The most interesting of course would be the great lakes, and pumping water back up hill from either Ontario to Erie, or Huron to Superior. There is enough water volume in these lakes that you are not going to appreciably alter their level, but you would still get the benefit of that volume flowing back downhill through the generating stations.

One thing they did say that made the Hoover project attractive was that California has more solar power than it can put into the grid without problems so they could redirect the excess the relatively short distance to the Colorado River to help run the pumps.