Author Topic: What you need to get a Tim Horton's  (Read 2013 times)

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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #90 on: January 14, 2018, 03:15:13 pm »
The effects are longer term. 6 month changes don't mean much. Most of the job loss will not come from specific people losing  their jobs but from businesses that don't expand or don't start in the first place and from automation that replaces new workers. I realize that everyone would like some definitive data that would settle this argument once and for all but I don't think we will ever get that.

You said that before yes.  I don't know how we're supposed to assess trade-offs.  It seems to me that they should be able to assess impacts...  somewhat.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #91 on: January 14, 2018, 03:17:44 pm »
Of course you have zero information about the profit margins that this specific business operates on. You have no way to know if the wage gains push a profitable business into a loss. Yet you condemn a business owner for lashing out at the shameless political opportunist who decided on a whim to destroy the business that they had invested their life savings in.

If these people didn't want class war, they should have consulted with their butler on how to sound more 'common' in their communication to the plebians.

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No matter what one thinks of minimum wages 20% in one year is ridiculous move and can only hurt them people it claims to help.

I also thought the election of Trump was ridiculous but I did say 'wait and see'.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #92 on: January 14, 2018, 03:20:10 pm »
These people don't owe you a job, let alone a well-paid job. Why is it their responsibility that you don't have the skills to command higher wages? They should just willingly fork over a substantial portion of their profits to you?

Me ?

I don't work at Tim Horton's.

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They can just close the place down and use their money on the stock market. They'd probably get a better return, in fact. If the wage increases cut too deeply into profits, then even if a place is profitable - a bit - they'll likely close. Why sacrifice a possible 8% profit margin somewhere else for a 1% profit margin now? I really don't know why anyone would own a restaurant, or for that matter, a grocery store, when the profit margins are so slim.

Let's count all the coffee shops that close down and we'll see how this experiment went.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #93 on: January 14, 2018, 03:24:55 pm »
Me ?

I don't work at Tim Horton's.

Not you personally, just "YOU", in the broader sense. Nobody owes "YOU" a job.
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Let's count all the coffee shops that close down and we'll see how this experiment went.

I suspect the demand will drop as prices rise, but I have no idea how you'd count the number of coffee shops, or how many employees have been replaced by automation. I also don't know how easy it is to get out of franchise agreements quickly. I suspect it isn't easy.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #94 on: January 14, 2018, 03:25:52 pm »
If the impacts are as drastic as some (including me) suspect it might be, then it will be obvious.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #95 on: January 14, 2018, 03:34:29 pm »
If the impacts are as drastic as some (including me) suspect it might be, then it will be obvious.

Really? How many bars and taverns closed down after the smoking ban? These sorts of questions are not the sort government will ever study because the news can only be bad publicity. I've found a few articles suggesting many as 11,000 closed down in the UK in the years after the ban, but nothing much on Canada. The government is not going to publicize how many businesses went out of business due to their policies, and anyone else who does so and finds a lot of coffee shops went bust will likely be right of centre and thus dismissed as 'fake news' by the progressive set.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline Omni

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #96 on: January 14, 2018, 03:50:43 pm »
Really? How many bars and taverns closed down after the smoking ban? These sorts of questions are not the sort government will ever study because the news can only be bad publicity. I've found a few articles suggesting many as 11,000 closed down in the UK in the years after the ban, but nothing much on Canada. The government is not going to publicize how many businesses went out of business due to their policies, and anyone else who does so and finds a lot of coffee shops went bust will likely be right of centre and thus dismissed as 'fake news' by the progressive set.

The pub I have been walking over to since well before the smoking ban is doing as thriving a business as it ever did. The smokers are still there but they are happy to go outside for a puff as are the majority of people who don't smoke and don't want to be forced to suck up someone else's smoke. Most people don't smoke any more so it's simply a bit of majority rule.

Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #97 on: January 14, 2018, 03:59:19 pm »
If the impacts are as drastic as some (including me) suspect it might be, then it will be obvious.
In the short term, it will not show up in the number of people employed. It will show up in fewer hours for those currently employed because cutting hours is easier than cutting jobs. The paid break changes at TH that started this thread is a good example. What study will be able to capture all of subtle ways workers can find themselves with less disposable income even as their rate per hour increases?

My prediction is there will be competing studies that say opposite results in year or two and they will all depend on arguable assumptions. The Seattle experience is a template. A very reputable study with good methodology clearly says income when down but that did not stop cyber and his fellow travellers from dismissing the study (he even had the nerve to claim there is 'no evidence' that minimum wage hikes hurt employees despite the fact that the Seattle study is pretty good evidence). There is no reason to believe the same script will not play out again in Ontario.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 04:27:58 pm by TimG »

Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #98 on: January 14, 2018, 05:48:14 pm »

Impacts on unemployment rates should be a litmus test in the short term, no ?

No.  If jobs don’t seem to be impacted, businesses are still profitable and employment of minimum wage workers seems the same, or more, people like TimG say “well it would have been even better had the minimum wage not gone up”.

No evidence will convince them that theiy are incorrect about something that is in opposition to their ideology.
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Offline cybercoma

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #99 on: January 14, 2018, 05:48:52 pm »
Come back to me when you have a peer reviewed like the numerous ones referenced in the links I posted. Your doom and gloom study is no better than an opinion column until it’s reviewed.

Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #100 on: January 14, 2018, 06:16:54 pm »
Come back to me when you have a peer reviewed like the numerous ones referenced in the links I posted. Your doom and gloom study is no better than an opinion column until it’s reviewed.
First, peer reviewed studies are just opinions that were accepted by peers who happen to agree with the opinions.

Second, here is a peer reviewed study that should be enough to debunk your "no evidence of negative effects" nonsense:
http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~dneumark/neumark,salas,wascher-ilrr-14.pdf

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The authors explore the ability of the new research designs to isolate reliable identifying
information, and they test the designs’ untested assumptions about the construction of better control groups.
Their analysis reveals problems with the new research designs. Moreover, using methods that let the data
identify the appropriate control groups, their results reaffirm the evidence of disemployment effects, with teen
employment elasticities near −0.15. This evidence, they conclude, still shows that minimum wages pose a
tradeoff of higher wages for some against job losses for others.

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guest7

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #101 on: January 14, 2018, 06:24:04 pm »


Are you allowed to do that here?  I seem to remember you suspending me for that on the "other place".

Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #102 on: January 14, 2018, 06:27:25 pm »
No.  If jobs don’t seem to be impacted, businesses are still profitable and employment of minimum wage workers seems the same, or more, people like TimG say “well it would have been even better had the minimum wage not gone up”.
That argument is valid even if it is not convenient for your ideology. I am not the one arguing that basic economic theory of supply and demand can be ignored when convenient. I notice none of the minimum wage advocates have bothered to answer my challenge: if $15 is good why don't we raise it to $100? Prove that your are not an ideologue by given me a coherent answer to that question. I suspect you will not because the cognitive dissonance is too much for you to bear.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #103 on: January 14, 2018, 06:28:40 pm »
Are you allowed to do that here?  I seem to remember you suspending me for that on the "other place".

?  For what ?

guest7

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #104 on: January 14, 2018, 06:30:49 pm »
?  For what ?

For posting a picture without any text or explanation.

It's okay, I forgave you a long time ago.

Of course, yours was a picture of text.  Loophole.