What is clear to me is that we are in a big, risky experiment. The Ontario Liberals will live or die on the results.
Ah, but that's the beauty of it from a political standpoint. They get all the credit for increasing the minimum wage from grateful minimum wage earners, but the job losses will take a while. It's not like 100,000 people will lose their jobs immediately. The losses will be gradual and accumulative and take place largely AFTER the election.
This is similar to them cutting electricity wages by 25%. Everyone gets the benefit NOW. The bills for the extra loans needed to pay for that cut come in over the next twenty years.
I for one am inclined to think this change will have a negative impact but I am also considering that these wages will go back into the economy whereas increased profits will go into bank stocks or offshore to Brazil.
The case of Tim Hortons is unique in that the franchisees have been denied permission to raise prices. But everyone else is already raising their prices to make up for the increased cost of paying employees. There is no new money going into the economy. The money for the increased wages is coming from ordinary people who are buying coffee, going to restaurants, buying groceries, etc. All that stuff just got more expensive for everyone, including these minimum wage earners.