Author Topic: What you need to get a Tim Horton's  (Read 1124 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2018, 07:12:41 pm »
His arguments were addressed in the links I provided. Go read them.
There is nothing that addresses the argument in my link.  What we have are two sources: one that claim the literature says "no effect" another says the literature says "job losses". I suspect both are simply ignoring studies that don't support their view which is why I say the literature is mixed. BTW: the link I provided reasonable explanations for why the studies you like are likely wrong so it is just silly for you to claim that you can ignore him because some other source says his arguments are wrong. There is real a debate and there is no point denying it. More importantly, only one side of the debate is proposing ideas that match what we know about economy theory. This means the other side needs some pretty  overwhelming evidence before it can be taken seriously.

Offline the_squid

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2018, 08:11:50 pm »
Oh, I'm sorry. That's my silly self imagining that anyone interested in discussing a subject would first take at least some small bit of time to acquaint themselves with the facts of the matter, perhaps read a newspaper or something. I continually overestimate people, though.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/retail-marketing/by-the-numbers-tim-hortons-franchisees-and-ontarios-minimum-wage-hike/wcm/0adbab69-cda1-4923-a9c0-05201bedc32d

So you believe the propaganda....   

Why canít Tims raise prices by a dime to make up for it?

Tims serves 2 billion cups of coffee...   lets say 500,000,000 in Ontario, just for the sake of argument.   10 cents per coffee = $50 million

That should cover it.   Or, find efficiencies elsewhere like all well-run businesses.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 08:19:20 pm by the_squid »
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Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #32 on: January 12, 2018, 08:51:02 pm »
Why canít Tims raise prices by a dime to make up for it?
Because the holding corporation run by wall street types won't let them. The franchise owners are getting screwed by the government and the company who jointly left them with no choice but to cut service and benefits.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #33 on: January 12, 2018, 09:07:58 pm »
Ultimately this is Kathleen Wynne and her government's fault.  There was no need to go from 11 dollars and change to $14 literally overnight.  It's too much of a shock to businesses.  Do it more gradually over say a 5 year period.  Or stick it to $13 and see how that works out.  Then to $14 and see how that goes economically in the province.  Pulling a random # out of the air seems pretty nonsensical.

It went from 11 something to $14 this year because this is an election year in Ontario and Wynne is trying her best to buy votes, to hell if businesses start closing next year or have to cut staff, another 5 more years for voters to forget and buy their votes again.
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Offline wilber

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2018, 10:38:32 pm »
Because the holding corporation run by wall street types won't let them. The franchise owners are getting screwed by the government and the company who jointly left them with no choice but to cut service and benefits.

They are getting screwed by the company. It's not like Tims is being discriminated against,  all their competitors are facing the same cost increase.
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Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #35 on: January 13, 2018, 08:54:23 am »
It is, as one columnist put it, an attempt at outsourcing the cost of a public social justice agenda to small business, and more of that newfound Liberal/NDP delight in class warfare. It's also a farce since the Liberals don't give a **** about the poor but only in convincing the dumb to vote for them again by being 'generous' with other peoples money.
 

I'm more interested in the economics of this whole experiment.  People bringing 'social justice agenda' into it is just a kind of ad hominem, and they just hate Wynne anyway.
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Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #36 on: January 13, 2018, 08:59:52 am »
1. The economists say differently. Every one I've read quoted in various news media says that overall this is not going to help anyone as the employees with better wages will wind up paying higher prices for things anyway, simply because every single service industry they use will have to raise their prices, as will places like grocery and drug stores.

2. In addition, tens of thousands will lose their jobs entirely and the move to find automated systems will be given another push. In terms of non-service industries, like manufacturing, obviously they will now be less competitive with imports and less competitive in trying to export to other countries with lower minimum wages.
1. Ok, good.  Please post some - and if there are opposing views post those too so we can read them.  Tim's raised coffee prices 10% earlier this year anyway, according to my dad, which is far above inflation.  I don't see people factoring that into the equation.

And.... if they are getting a raise above inflation you are saying that wages and prices across the board will now rise at that level.  I don't see how.  If inflation rises to the same level then you will be right.

2. Manufacturing already competes with people who work at a fraction of the wage costs.  Competitiveness is a concern, of course, but I am finding it hard to reconcile a situation where business is making more but the number of low-wage employees increases to today's levels.  Again, we will see.

Quote
Remember this will not only impact minimum wage earners. Min wage was $11.40, which means that in December, some employees with more skills were making $14, $15, $16hr. Do you think employers can keep paying them what is essentially now minimum wage? Hardly. They'll have to bump them up several dollars an hour too.

Ok.

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #37 on: January 13, 2018, 09:06:42 am »
This logic is nonsense. Minimum wages are not a 'tax on the rich'. They simply inflate the cost of employing people and encourage businesses to cut staff and benefits in order to maintain profitability. IOW - it is naive to assume that hikes in minimum wages will actually result in more aggregate income.

They have to supply staff to operate their business.  Tim's doesn't have people on hand standing around.  If the business isn't viable, or doesn't provide ROI then yes it will close.  I am not convinced that businesses that howl that they can't afford to operate are being honest.  It's in their interest to say so, whether or not it's true. 

There are extremes at each end of the curve: allowing large profits without legislating that money back into tax revenues, or otherwise into the economy through wages will result in a poorer consumer class but taxing and legislating business to the point where enterprise is not worthwhile is also prohibitive to a healthy economy.

There is a sweet zone in the middle, but I wouldn't rely on the business community to tell us where that is.

I am going to read cyber's links about the economics. 

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #38 on: January 13, 2018, 09:09:15 am »

The academic literature is mixed (which means there is evidences supporting my claim which you ignored).
Ideologically driven economists will obviously attack the Seattle study but that does not mean it conclusions were wrong.

More importantly, economic theory says that there will be impact so it requires extraordinary evidence to establish the opposite.
Studies that claim that it can't be measured are not extraordinary evidence because it could mean they are not measuring it properly.

Yes - at least someone is finally saying that the economics is open to analysis.

There will be 'impact' of course.  Should we believe the business owners themselves ? 

btw I am on the watch for this one: Once anyone brings morality into it, you can tell they have no practical argument.

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #39 on: January 13, 2018, 09:10:11 am »
Oh, I'm sorry. That's my silly self imagining that anyone interested in discussing a subject would first take at least some small bit of time to acquaint themselves with the facts of the matter, perhaps read a newspaper or something. I continually overestimate people, though.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/retail-marketing/by-the-numbers-tim-hortons-franchisees-and-ontarios-minimum-wage-hike/wcm/0adbab69-cda1-4923-a9c0-05201bedc32d

Yep, that's fair.  I will read this too.

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #40 on: January 13, 2018, 09:22:20 am »
Found this:
 
 

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #41 on: January 13, 2018, 09:42:54 am »
So far, the cites are lacking for me but I am leaning towards this being a radical impact.

If I understand correctly the Seattle case was a 3% increase, which is nothing like the 20% increase we're talking about.

Several of the cites come from studies that appear biased to me, such as left-wing think tanks and others like 'the Great White North Franchisee Association, a group representing about half of the countryís Tim Hortons franchisees.'  I didn't pay these much attention.

I still have a few to go.

What is clear to me is that we are in a big, risky experiment.  The Ontario Liberals will live or die on the results.  For those of you predicting economic ruin, 10s of thousands of jobs lost I am sure we all hope that's wrong.  But if it's very wrong you will have to review your assumptions about economics.  I for one am inclined to think this change will have a negative impact but I am also considering that these wages will go back into the economy whereas increased profits will go into bank stocks or offshore to Brazil.

But I'm still reading....

Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #42 on: January 13, 2018, 09:44:03 am »
Holly Sklar is listed on one of the articles:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holly_Sklar

She seems like an opinionist....

guest4

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2018, 10:20:58 am »
JJ Bean raises wages in BC to match Ontario's hike.  They also raise prices between one and three percent. 
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/jj-bean-coffee-wage-increase-hike-1.4486070
It will be interesting to see how this plays out for them  I rarely go to coffee shops, but I would pay the extra to support JJ Bean.  I wonder how many others feel the same.
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Offline SirJohn

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #44 on: January 13, 2018, 10:35:25 am »
His arguments were addressed in the links I provided. Go read them.

No, they actually aren't. The three cites you list all speak about the normal minimum wage increases we have had over the past twenty years, that is, very slight, very gradual, ten cents here, a quarter there. These are usually done as the existing minimum wage falls behind the times due to inflation to bring them back in line.

That is NOT the case with the huge minimum wage increases in Alberta and Ontario. Both were done out of ideological/political reasons, not because of inflation, and both were, comparatively speaking, enormous. You can't say that because studies of $0.20 minimum wage raises don't seem to result in much in the way of job loses an increase of $3.60 will be fine too.
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