Author Topic: What you need to get a Tim Horton's  (Read 1133 times)

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Offline SirJohn

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #180 on: January 22, 2018, 12:05:40 pm »
A economist at a university in California, versus a letter from 40 economists, two of whom were presidents of the economics association here in Canada, who say literally the weight of the evidence is exactly the opposite as you're claiming.

But the economist in question undertook a metastudy of all available previous studies. The left leaning economists who signed that letter just gave their own opinion - without studies. The person quoted in the story, Lars Ogden, is from the Broadbent Institute. The only other one named, Craig Riddell, is associated with the Institute for Public Policy, established by Pierre Trudeau. Both are notably Left leaning institutions.
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Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #181 on: January 22, 2018, 12:08:00 pm »
A economist at a university in California, versus a letter from 40 economists, two of whom were presidents of the economics association here in Canada, who say literally the weight of the evidence is exactly the opposite as you're claiming.
40 politically motivated economists writing an open letter is not a survey of the profession or any valid representation of the state of the literature. All it says is there are 40 economists in Canada who happen to be ideologically left wing and some of them have senior posts. There are 15,000 economists in Canada: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/career-advice/i-want-to-be-an-economist-what-will-my-salary-be/article19808798/. 40 is nothing.

Offline wilber

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #182 on: January 22, 2018, 12:16:15 pm »
I am saying that after 5 years of 1.5% inflation the wage that one would expect to receive based on inflation is 7.7%. That should be the end of the calculation need to do a sanity check on the current raises. Now you seem to think that people should get more than inflation to "compensate" wages lost in the past but you can't calculate any such number unless you set other parameters such as period of time which the catch up should occur. i.e. 5 years from now they should have made the same as if they had gotten 1.5% per for 10 years. I have  not done the math but I doubt it would change much. More importantly, the last increases were way above inflation too so you would need to take that into account too. Cherry picking a 5 year interval without looking at where the base was at the start is not reasonable.

I'll do the math for you.

Lets say someone was making $20,000 a year and gets 1.5% increases every year for 5 years. 1st year=$20,000, 2nd year = $20,320.30, 3rd year = 20,625.10, 4th year = 20,934.48, 5th year = $21,248.50. Total income = $103,128.38

Someone making $20,000 who gets no increases for the first four years and 5% on the fifth. First four years $80,000. Fifth year $21,000. Total income $101,000 plus this person is making $248 less in the fifth year than the person who had yearly increases. This is money that will never be recovered unless people are given occasional raises that exceed the inflation rate over the time they never received raises.


I can only assume that you believe people on minimum wage are over paid.
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Offline waldo

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #183 on: January 22, 2018, 12:31:22 pm »
The weight of the evidence is on the side of minimum wages having adverse impacts.

The media and a small number left wing advocate economists have given us a false picture of the state of the literature.
The trouble with these assertions are made based on relatively modest increases in the past - not the absurd increase being pushed though now. Any economist who quickly declares that such an unprecedented increase will have minimal negative effects is basing their claim on ideology - not data.
40 politically motivated economists

we've seen your pattern many times in the past - throw down a study and declare it as prevailing... and the bonus kicker, declare alternative study/findings as nothing more than the results from, as you say, "left wing advocates... claims based on ideology... politically motivated". As it stands, the author of your linked reference is acknowledged in the field study of minimum wages versus employment and is a prolific author in that regard... but... he himself has recently written to concede the debate is ongoing, that there is no consensus. Amazingly in his position/writings he doesn't declare his opponents as, "ideological driven, politically motivated, lefty advocates" - go figure, hey!

on edit to add: these "absurd" increases you label... when skimming the thread I might have missed an actual statement on what the proposed increases were/are; these increases:

- Ontario’s general minimum wage from $11.60 per hour to:

    $14 per hour on January 1, 2018
    $15 per hour on January 1, 2019

- Liquor servers will see an increase from $10.10 per hour to:

    $12.20 per hour on January 1, 2018
    $13.05 per hour on January 1, 2019

- Students under the age of 18, who work part time during the school year (up to 28hrs/week) and on school breaks, will see an increase from $10.90 per hour to:

    $13.15 per hour on January 1, 2018
    $14.10 per hour on January 1, 2019


« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 12:35:09 pm by waldo »
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Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #184 on: January 22, 2018, 12:40:03 pm »
Someone making $20,000 who gets no increases for the first four years and 5% on the fifth. First four years $80,000. Fifth year $21,000. Total income $101,000 plus this person is making $248 less in the fifth year than the person who had yearly increases. This is money that will never be recovered unless people are given occasional raises that exceed the inflation rate over the time they never received raises.
The equivalent to 1.5% is 7.7% - not 5%. So if they got 7.7% they would be making exactly the same as they would have if they got annual raises. Making up for the $2,128.38 differential requires that you set a period in the future where this different should be made up. Let's say 5 years works out to $425/year or an additional 2% which brings the raise up to 9.7%. $15 is a 30% increase which vastly outstrips anything that would be justified based on 'catching up to inflation'.

As for what people "deserve" to be paid. We live in a free market society where prices are set by supply and demand. The only time people don't
"deserve" what they are paid is when the government interferes. They tried to create society where everyone got paid what they "deserved" in the USSR. It is not work out so well.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 12:42:37 pm by TimG »

Offline waldo

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #185 on: January 22, 2018, 12:47:00 pm »
--- https://voxeu.org/article/minimum-wage-increases-and-earnings-low-wage-jobs

relative to 2009, a 2013-2016 analysis in 18 U.S. states that have raised their minimum wages... among workers in the low-wage leisure and hospitality industry as compared to U.S. states with no minimum wage increase => no discernible impact on employment levels or hours worked
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Offline wilber

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #186 on: January 22, 2018, 12:54:26 pm »
The equivalent to 1.5% is 7.7% - not 5%. So if they got 7.7% they would be making exactly the same as they would have if they got annual raises. Making up for the $2,128.38 differential requires that you set a period in the future where this different should be made up. Let's say 5 years works out to $425/year or an additional 2% which brings the raise up to 9.7%. $15 is a 30% increase which vastly outstrips anything that would be justified based on 'catching up to inflation'.



So how long till the next raise? That's the problem with not indexing the minimum wage and doing things ad hock, you keep having these debates.

Quote
As for what people "deserve" to be paid. We live in a free market society where prices are set by supply and demand. The only time people don't
"deserve" what they are paid is when the government interferes. They tried to create society where everyone got paid what they "deserved" in the USSR. It is not work out so well.

A minimum wage is not Marxism, a maximum wage might be.  So you do think people on minimum wage are over paid.
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Offline waldo

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #187 on: January 22, 2018, 12:55:50 pm »
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #188 on: January 22, 2018, 01:00:43 pm »
I just want yummy donuts.
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #189 on: January 22, 2018, 01:07:07 pm »
Here's a neat debate:  where should we peg the minimum wage?  Where it was before in Ontario was typically at just above the poverty line threshold (which is based on average cost of living for good etc I believe), which was around $20k a year (for a single person) last time I checked.  $15 an hour raises minimum wage to 30k a year.

If you're going to make a minimum wage at all, you can't just pull a random # out of your butt that "sounds good", it should be based on some kind of logical metric.
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline wilber

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #190 on: January 22, 2018, 01:29:29 pm »


If you're going to make a minimum wage at all, you can't just pull a random # out of your butt that "sounds good", it should be based on some kind of logical metric.

I agree, then index it and forget it.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline SirJohn

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #191 on: January 22, 2018, 02:37:49 pm »
If you're going to make a minimum wage at all, you can't just pull a random # out of your butt that "sounds good", it should be based on some kind of logical metric.

The metric being used is "what will get me votes".
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #192 on: January 22, 2018, 02:48:23 pm »
I agree, then index it and forget it.

Exactly.

Honestly you can go out and find 500 left-leaning economists right now of the Paul Krugman/Joseph Stiglitz ilk to support most left-leaning economic policies, and you can find 500 right-leaning economists of the Milton Friedman school or whatnot who will say the exact opposite.  And vice versa.

It often comes down to what people think is "fair" and how the pie should be divided up, who the winners and losers should be.
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline TimG

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #193 on: January 22, 2018, 03:16:29 pm »
It often comes down to what people think is "fair" and how the pie should be divided up, who the winners and losers should be.
The bigger issue is people can't agree on who the winners and losers are nevermind discuss how things should be divided.

That said, I also agree that any minimum wage should be automatically indexed like the CPP and other government benefits. This gives businesses predictability without giving them stealth wage cuts with inflation.
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Offline MH

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Re: What you need to get a Tim Horton's
« Reply #194 on: January 22, 2018, 05:34:39 pm »
The metric being used is "what will get me votes".

Which, for we liberals, means having to deal with fear-mongering and hate-mongering politicians playing on peoples' worst fears to cause harm to brown people and make political careers.

Welcome to the world.  Sorry you have to pay 10 cents more for coffee.  oops I moralized me bad