Author Topic: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!  (Read 325 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2017, 12:39:17 am »
It is true that world population is anticipated to stabilize at aroind 11 billion by about 2100.  There are fewer babies being born everywhere, not just in Weatern countries.  It will change economies, no doubt.  Here's an article that discusses what that might look like.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal

From your link:
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The argument I am making here is that population decline will significantly transform the functioning of economies, but in the advanced industrial world it will not represent a catastrophe quite the contrary. Perhaps the most important change will be that where for the past 500 years bankers and financiers have held the upper hand, in a labor-scarce society having pools of labor to broker will be the key. I have no idea what that business model will look like, but I have no doubt that others will figure that out.

The effect on housing prices is one consequence of a growing population that causes real harm to people already living here. There are others. For example, if one cares about Canada's commitments to reduce CO2 emissions then the worst thing we could do is increase the population because every new person adds to the emissions.

Offline Omni

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2017, 12:55:34 am »
Cut immigration to 100K a year or so and the population will be stable given current birth rates. If those rates change the adjust the immigration rates accordingly. It would be very easy to maintain a stable population if there was a political will.
Except we need to grow the population to grow the economy. Agai, simply look south. Should be obvious.

Offline TimG

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2017, 01:09:30 am »
Except we need to grow the population to grow the economy. Agai, simply look south. Should be obvious.
And one of the reasons we need to grow the economy is to pay for services needed for the larger number of people. Your argument is like saying we have to keep using heroin because the stopping causes withdrawal symptoms. Stopping population growth would slow GDP growth but that is not necessarily a bad thing. In the long term we would forced to develop a more efficient and productive economy that will also be sustainable in the long term. It would also have a huge impact on housing affordability. It is a mystery why anyone who cares about out of control housing costs is unwilling to address to demand side of the equation.

Offline bcsapper

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2017, 10:53:43 am »
Oh c'mon. Canada has tons of space. And the way to create those cities you reckon everybody wants to live in, is simply to increase the population/tax base. There is every reason to start now so kids and grandkids can afford housing as they can in the US. Check the prices down there compared to here.

I don't know about space.  It seems like everyone who wants to come and live here wants to move to one of three or four overcrowded cities.  I sure did.  I had to be here twenty plus years before I figured out I was better off away from a major population centre.

I have friends in Vancouver who are fretting about their retirement, all the while owning a million dollar plus home. 
Time for bed said Zebedee...

Offline SirJohn

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2017, 12:06:20 pm »
If I may I would suggest the numbers tell much of the story. We live on a larger land mass than the US with ~10% of the population, and  Even in our most populated cities, relatively low population density hampers infrastructure development.

And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology. As for those 'wide open spaces', more than 90% of us live in a thin strip of land along the US border. Nobody is coming to Canada to go live on the Arctic tundra. They're going to Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline Omni

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2017, 12:22:40 pm »
And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology. As for those 'wide open spaces', more than 90% of us live in a thin strip of land along the US border. Nobody is coming to Canada to go live on the Arctic tundra. They're going to Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

We will certainly see a degradation in our standard of living if we are all sitting around collecting OAP with nobody working. It's pretty simple to get your head around, if we aren't having babies then we need immigration. Our natural population growth is forecast to drop to 0 by 2033, not that long away eh. Keep in mind also that the composition of our immigration policy includes 60% economic class.

Offline JMT

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2017, 01:14:51 pm »
And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology.

We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.

Offline TimG

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2017, 02:18:19 pm »
We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

More importantly, Japan used to have out of control property prices. For a generation they have stabilized. There is nothing that impacts quality of life more than the cost of roof over your head. If we did a comparison of millennial living in Japan to one living in Canada your would have a tough time determining who is actually better off even though Japan had to deal with deflation and tepid aggregate GDP growth.

Lastly, Canada does not need to deal with a declining population because we can use immigration to keep it stable. But we should be keeping it stable because, in the long term, more people is not a benefit (look at China and India).
« Last Edit: November 12, 2017, 02:22:06 pm by TimG »

Offline Omni

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2017, 02:25:47 pm »
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

More importantly, Japan used to have out of control property prices. For a generation they have stabilized. There is nothing that impacts quality of life more than the cost of roof over your head. If we did a comparison of millennial living in Japan to one living in Canada your would have a tough time determining who is actually better off even though Japan had to deal with deflation and tepid aggregate GDP growth.

Lastly, Canada does not need to deal with a declining population because we can use immigration to keep it stable. But we should be keeping it stable because, in the long term, more people is not a benefit (look at China and India).

Look at the US economy compared to Canada's.

Offline JMT

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2017, 02:42:50 pm »
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

Sure, after a decade of stagnation, they now are doing better.

Offline TimG

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2017, 02:43:09 pm »
Look at the US economy compared to Canada's.
I don't think moving to a crime invested inner city filled with marginalized people is a model we want to emulate.

Offline TimG

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2017, 02:45:38 pm »
Sure, after a decade of stagnation, they now are doing better.
Because they are learning how to manage a declining population which was my point from the start: getting off the population growth driven economy bandwagon will not be pain free. It is simply something that we will eventually have to deal with and dealing with it sooner than later will be better in the long term.

Offline Omni

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2017, 03:05:10 pm »
Because they are learning how to manage a declining population which was my point from the start: getting off the population growth driven economy bandwagon will not be pain free. It is simply something that we will eventually have to deal with and dealing with it sooner than later will be better in the long term.

The way they are managing it is by bringing in foreign guest workers. Doesn't that sound a little like immigration to you?

Offline SirJohn

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2017, 03:16:21 pm »
We will certainly see a degradation in our standard of living if we are all sitting around collecting OAP with nobody working.

And how is this helped by importing immigrants without the requisite skillset to command sufficient salaries that they are actually paying taxes, as opposed to consuming services like health care which others must pay for?

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It's pretty simple to get your head around, if we aren't having babies then we need immigration.

We don't need as many as we are getting. Our population would be stabilized with 100k, and we should be doing our best to get those who are going to pay taxes and adapt well to our culture and values.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline SirJohn

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Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2017, 03:20:33 pm »
We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.

Has it? In what way? Seems like a pretty rich land with a high standard of living to me.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum