Canadian Politics Today

Beyond Canada => The World => Topic started by: Omni on June 05, 2018, 04:33:44 pm

Title: Volcanoes
Post by: Omni on June 05, 2018, 04:33:44 pm
Not being a vulcanoligist I had to wonder if there was any connection between all the current activity, and if I should shore up my man cave with more beer and pretzels. The experts say there is no connection but it couldn't hurt to err on the side of caution.


“The eruptions are not in any way connected,” explains Karen Fontijn, a volcanologist and postdoctoral researcher at Oxford University. “All these volcanoes are frequently erupting, and their behaviour is totally normal.

http://time.com/5300004/guatemala-fuego-volcano-eruption-indonesia-hawaii/
Title: Re: Volcanoes
Post by: wilber on June 05, 2018, 06:26:19 pm
There was always something popping off in the Aleutians or Kamchatka when I was flying in that part of the world. Had to divert to Fairbanks when Mt. Spurr belched in 92 and dumped ash all over Anchorage. They call it ash but it's more like ground glass. Walked about 4 blocks to get groceries when we got back to ANC and it was brutal. Big mistake.

Not a lot of people in those places so they don't get the big press.
Title: Re: Volcanoes
Post by: TimG on June 05, 2018, 06:44:04 pm
http://skepdic.com/clustering.html

Quote
The clustering illusion is the intuition that random events which occur in clusters are not really random events. The illusion is due to selective thinking based on a counterintuitive but false assumption regarding statistical odds. For example, it strikes most people as unexpected if heads comes up four times in a row during a series of coin flips. However, in a series of 20 flips, there is a 50% chance of getting four heads in a row (Gilovich). It may seem unexpected, but the chances are better than even that a given neighborhood in California will have a statistically significant cluster of cancer cases (Gawande).
Many many media stories depend on inferring 'causal' relationships when none exist.
Title: Re: Volcanoes
Post by: Omni on June 05, 2018, 08:45:34 pm
http://skepdic.com/clustering.html
Many many media stories depend on inferring 'causal' relationships when none exist.

I think they depend more on catering to conspiracy theorists, such as those who say the government brought down the WTC and that ilk.
Title: Re: Volcanoes
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on June 05, 2018, 08:50:58 pm
Well remember when that one man was pulled off the plane that was too full?  Suddenly the media then started to report any time someone was pulled off a flight. It wasn't happening more often, it was just making it into the news more often because it became a hot topic.
Title: Re: Volcanoes
Post by: Omni on June 05, 2018, 09:02:18 pm
Well when I started to look around for info on the volcanoes I found lots of media that explained how they were simply coincidental and I now have a little more knowledge about what's under our feet. I haven't heard much about people being pulled off planes lately, unless the passenger gets unruly. Pretty hard to blame the media for that.