Canadian Political Events

Beyond Canada => The World => Topic started by: MH on November 17, 2017, 06:19:37 am

Title: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: MH on November 17, 2017, 06:19:37 am
 Tesla announced two vehicles yesterday ?

There must be people on here who follow this: explain it to me.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/17/16669024/tesla-roadster-2017-fastest-car-world
http://appleinsider.com/articles/17/11/17/tesla-unveils-new-semi-with-a-500-mile-range-roadster-that-can-hit-250-miles-per-hour

A Semi with a 500 mile range and a roadster that goes 1 to 60 in 1.9 seconds.  The techno nerd kids I work with LOVE this stuff, as it's both classically testosterone-supporting as well as touchy-feely-environmental. 

Please don't discuss climate change on this thread or I will vomit a moderator on you.

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HqOVEmBk10KA-7rxSaUoAYfRCAA=/0x0:3840x2160/1570x883/filters:focal(1613x773:2227x1387):format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57642479/Roadster_Hero.0.jpg)


Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 09:34:27 am
A Semi with a 500 mile range and a roadster that goes 1 to 60 in 1.9 seconds.  The techno nerd kids I work with LOVE this stuff, as it's both classically testosterone-supporting as well as touchy-feely-environmental.
Telsa (the company) is a vehicle to consume investor cash. The truck is about creating the hype for "next big thing" to keep investor cash coming in now that it mid range sedan is built and underwhelming.

The trouble with EVs is they are awesome vehicles *in theory*. The trouble is always with the practical details like cost, range and re-fueling time under a wide variety of weather conditions.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Omni on November 17, 2017, 09:43:14 am
And the beauty of EV's is they get you from A to B without leaving a trail of poisonous gases in it's wake, they're quiet, and they have so few moving parts to take care compared to their ICE counterparts. That investor cash will certainly keep on coming, from tomorrow's wealthiest.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: SirJohn on November 17, 2017, 09:54:10 am
Telsa (the company) is a vehicle to consume investor cash. The truck is about creating the hype for "next big thing" to keep investor cash coming in now that it mid range sedan is built and underwhelming.

From all I have read they are damned good cars. The only problem is getting enough of them built. The move to electric vehicles is a good one for everyone concerned except the automakers. I remember seeing a documentary some time back on why they weren't building electric cars, and on it was a table showing the very limited number of moving parts in an electric vehicle which might have to be replaced/repaired. Sitting on the driveway next to it was the mass of parts one could expect to have to replace in an internal combustion engine. The automakers didn't want to bring in a car which would spend so little time in their service bays and require so few replacement parts.

As charging becomes easier and batteries last longer it will simply make no sense whatever to have an internal combustion engine. And that's quite aside from environmental considerations.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: SirJohn on November 17, 2017, 09:57:16 am
Tesla announced two vehicles yesterday ?

There must be people on here who follow this: explain it to me.


The semi would be the big game changer if they can build it. It would be coming out as vehicles become more and more autonomous and would be the perfect truck to eventually become automated. I bet you could have it recharge itself by simply pulling into a handy charge bay, then continuing on its journey. That it won't veer across lanes or jackknife is clearly part and parcel of that consideration.

If I owned one of those big truck stops I would be selling about now.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 10:09:04 am
From all I have read they are damned good cars. The only problem is getting enough of them built.
I am not certain the production problems are more than an excuse to cover up underwhelming demand or to limit losses (i.e. if Telsa is losing money on every vehicle shipping fewer vehicles saves money). It is impossible to know for sure without detailed inside knowledge. I have seen one analyst make a convincing case for the underwhelming demand by looking at other data that Tesla provides.

The move to electric vehicles is a good one for everyone concerned except the automakers.
The only way EVs will disrupt automakers is if it means that less complexity means more competition. If Telsa's production problems are real then the big automakers will have no problems building and selling quality EVs because the have decades of experience. i.e. the companies can still make money but will likely need a lot fewer workers.

As charging becomes easier and batteries last longer it will simply make no sense whatever to have an internal combustion engine.
There are some basic laws of physics that put practical limits on what can be done with charging times. Moving to EVs will require a change in driving culture.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: SirJohn on November 17, 2017, 10:15:59 am
I am not certain the production problems are more than an excuse to cover up underwhelming demand or to limit losses (i.e. if Telsa is losing money on every vehicle shipping fewer vehicles saves money). It is impossible to know for sure without detailed inside knowledge. I have seen one analyst make a convincing case for the underwhelming demand by looking at other data that Tesla provides.

Well, I was speaking purely of the reviews of these cars, which have all been pretty positive. Production problems are inevitable, especially given this is a new company with new people and a new product.

Quote
The only way EVs will disrupt automakers is if it means that less complexity means more competition.

It will disrupt their economic case. Right now dealers don't make an awful lot on new cars they sell. They make it up in the finance office through extended warranties, rust proofing, etc, and in the service shop, through maintenance, repairs and replacement of parts. If the they can't do this the dealers will want a much bigger piece of the original sales price of vehicles.

Quote
There are some basic laws of physics that put practical limits on what can be done with charging times. Moving to EVs will require a change in driving culture.

Battery power continues to creep up, and charging times down. I expect that to continue. Five hundred miles is plenty for a truck to make it from one charging station to another without a driver to pay. Hell, how often is an internal combustion vehicle going to drive 500 miles without stopping for the driver to rest and eat? The new sports car claims to be able to do 1000 miles on a charge. That's a gamebreaker if they can do it.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 10:28:59 am
Production problems are inevitable, especially given this is a new company with new people and a new product.
They have been at this for years. They are either complete incompetents or it is a convenient excuse.

It will disrupt their economic case. Right now dealers don't make an awful lot on new cars they sell.
Dealers are not car makers. Jobs will be lost. The question is whether the EVs represent an existential threat to existing car makers. I don't think so.

Hell, how often is an internal combustion vehicle going to drive 500 miles without stopping for the driver to rest and eat?
Even if it is only 1 time in 10 that 1 time is enough for someone to not want to risk buying an EV. I know I wouldn't. Hybrids are better options from that perspective.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 12:05:53 pm
Interesting vehicles. Like IC powered cars, range will go down the more their performance is used. Does the semi have a 500 mile range while pulling 80,000 lbs and what is the sports cars range after you make a few 1.9 second 0-60 runs? Still, the electric motor's ability to produce maximum torque from zero RPM makes it very attractive.


All the major vehicle manufacturers are going heavy into developing electric cars. They are putting more R&D into electrics than anything else these days, so they are definitely going to be a big part of the future. As the choices increase and prices decrease, I'm beginning to see one in my future as a daily driver, using my truck whenever I think range or being able to get a charge might be an issue.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Omni on November 17, 2017, 01:02:21 pm
With countries like China, the US, and Europe looking toward regulating ICE vehicles out of existence I would say investing in Tesla might not be a bad idea.

DETROIT — China has said it will eventually ban gasoline-powered cars. California may be moving in the same direction. That pressure has set off a scramble by the world’s car companies to embrace electric vehicles.

On Monday, General Motors, America’s largest automaker, staked its claim to leadership. Outlining a fundamental shift in its vision of the industry, it announced plans for 20 new all-electric models by 2023, including two within the next 18 months.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/business/general-motors-electric-cars.html?_r=0
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 01:09:10 pm
China is now the largest vehicle market and is calling the shots for the future.

https://www.thestar.com/business/tech_news/2017/09/11/chinas-electric-car-push-lures-global-auto-giants-despite-risks.html (https://www.thestar.com/business/tech_news/2017/09/11/chinas-electric-car-push-lures-global-auto-giants-despite-risks.html)
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 02:24:48 pm
China is now the largest vehicle market and is calling the shots for the future.
China can force its population to drive whatever the government decides and throw anyone who complains into jail. It will be a little more difficult to convince citizens of democratic countries to give up the convenience of an ICE when it comes not having to worry about running out fuel and/or waiting hours for a fill up.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Omni on November 17, 2017, 02:37:27 pm
China can force its population to drive whatever the government decides and throw anyone who complains into jail. It will be a little more difficult to convince citizens of democratic countries to give up the convenience of an ICE when it comes not having to worry about running out fuel and/or waiting hours for a fill up.

Why then do you think countries that don't have that power, such as most of Western Europe, all of India, and large parts of the US are heading the same direction within the next two decades or so if it were not where the world is heading?

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/electric-cars-replace-gasoline-engines-2040/
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 05:14:55 pm
China can force its population to drive whatever the government decides and throw anyone who complains into jail. It will be a little more difficult to convince citizens of democratic countries to give up the convenience of an ICE when it comes not having to worry about running out fuel and/or waiting hours for a fill up.

Already happening.  http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/autos/countries-that-are-banning-gas-cars-for-electric/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/autos/countries-that-are-banning-gas-cars-for-electric/index.html).

China is the world's largest and fasted growing car market. Together with the EU, sales are more than double the US. Where they go the world will go. US manufacturers know that if they don't respond to those markets, they will get left behind. Trump's reactionary policies regarding emissions and efficiency would end up costing US industry in the long run. US manufacturers know it and are responding accordingly.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 05:46:45 pm
US manufacturers know that if they don't respond to those markets, they will get left behind.
Of course makers are going to produce EVs. The question is whether people living in countries that let consumers choose will buy them. It won't be the first time that international companies provide different products to suit the requirements of different markets.

The EU bans will likely be watered down to allow hybrids as the deadline approaches and consumers realize that switching to EVs comes with a rather large convenience cost. 

It is worth noting that you could take all of the articles about biofuel/ethanol vehicles from 10-15 years ago, replace "biofuel" with "EV" and re-run the story. "Biofuels" went from being the savoir of the future to a footnote because the technology could not live up to the hype and people realized that the environment impact was, in some cases, worse than fossil fuels. Expect the same script to play out with EVs over the next 10-15 years.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 17, 2017, 05:48:19 pm
And the beauty of EV's is they get you from A to B without leaving a trail of poisonous gases in it's wake, they're quiet, and they have so few moving parts to take care compared to their ICE counterparts. That investor cash will certainly keep on coming, from tomorrow's wealthiest.

Well instead EV's are charged using power generated from power plants like coal and nuclear, among renewable sources.  So EV's aren't necessarily much cleaner...yet
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 05:57:37 pm
Well instead EV's are charged using power generated from power plants like coal and nuclear, among renewable sources.  So EV's aren't necessarily much cleaner...yet
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 17, 2017, 06:12:39 pm
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.

Well at least in Ontario the Liberal gov has been so wasteful that they created far too much generating capacity than can be used so there's no problem there.  And there's no fossil fuel production in the province either, for better or worse.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 17, 2017, 06:13:24 pm
And if EV adoption were to expand rapidly there would need to be a rapid expansion of generating capacity. With the tech available today that means more coal and gas so expect EVs impacts to get worse - not better.

Well at least in Ontario the Liberal gov has been so wasteful that they created far too much generating capacity than can be used so there's no problem there.  And there's no fossil fuel energy production in the province either, for better or worse.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 06:14:08 pm
Of course makers are going to produce EVs. The question is whether people living in countries that let consumers choose will buy them. It won't be the first time that international companies provide different products to suit the requirements of different markets.

The EU bans will likely be watered down to allow hybrids as the deadline approaches and consumers realize that switching to EVs comes with a rather large convenience cost. 

It is worth noting that you could take all of the articles about biofuel/ethanol vehicles from 10-15 years ago, replace "biofuel" with "EV" and re-run the story. "Biofuels" went from being the savoir of the future to a footnote because the technology could not live up to the hype and people realized that the environment impact was, in some cases, worse than fossil fuels. Expect the same script to play out with EVs over the next 10-15 years.

Biofuels are just intended for use in current IC engines, they are not a new form of propulsion. Considering how far EV technology has come in the last 20 years, it is entirely likely that another 20 will make them much more viable and economical. Considering the history of human progress, I don't know how anyone could think that current IC engines are the pinnacle of propulsion systems that will never be bettered and replaced by other technologies.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 06:23:54 pm
Considering how far EV technology has come in the last 20 years, it is entirely likely that another 20 will make them much more viable and economical.
It is also possible that problems with EVs will not be addressed and they will remain the "technology of the future".

Considering the history of human progress
The history of human progress is trial and error. Not every technology lives up to the expectations when the tech is new and shiny. Nuclear fission and fusion power are good examples. Sometimes the downsides of a technology cannot be overcome with progress. The latest Star Trek installment seems to have set up a plot line that will explore this very point.


Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 07:11:56 pm
It is also possible that problems with EVs will not be addresses and they will remain the "technology of the future".
The history of human progress is trial and error. Not every technology lives up to the expectations when the tech is new and shiny. Nuclear fission and fusion power are good examples. Sometimes the downsides of a technology cannot be overcome with progress. The latest Star Trek installment seems to have set up a plot line that will explore this very point.

These guys, among others, are betting billions otherwise.  Their focus is on designing and producing EV's.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massive-billion-investment-in-electric-cars-and-batteries/ (https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massive-billion-investment-in-electric-cars-and-batteries/)
https://electrek.co/2017/10/02/gm-electric-car-commitment-new-models/ (https://electrek.co/2017/10/02/gm-electric-car-commitment-new-models/)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-ceo/ford-to-cut-costs-14-billion-invest-in-trucks-electric-cars-ceo-idUSKCN1C82NL (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-ceo/ford-to-cut-costs-14-billion-invest-in-trucks-electric-cars-ceo-idUSKCN1C82NL)
http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/10/05/bmw-cut-2-4-billion-procurement-costs-invest-ev-tech/ (http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/10/05/bmw-cut-2-4-billion-procurement-costs-invest-ev-tech/)
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/28/16379394/mazda-toyota-new-electric-car-company (https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/28/16379394/mazda-toyota-new-electric-car-company)
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 07:23:22 pm
These guys, among others, are betting billions otherwise.  Their focus is on designing and producing EV's.
So? Governments have jumped on the bandwagon with subsidies and threats of regulation. They have to produce something and they will. The question is whether the end result is something consumers are going to have to be forced to buy or if it will be something that is actually better than ICE engines.

If there was any sanity in government the focus now would be on plug in hybrids. This is tech that exists and works for real world applications. It would also allow the gradual investment in the charging infrastructure needed to support wide spread use of EVs. Unfortunately, too many people are star struck by Elon Musk and his fancy toys. 
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 07:38:14 pm
So? Governments have jumped on the bandwagon with subsidies and threats of regulation. They have to produce something and they will. The question is whether the end result is something consumers are going to have to be forced to buy or if it will be something that is actually better than ICE engines.

If there was any sanity in government the focus now would be on plug in hybrids. This is tech that exists and works for real world applications. It would also allow the gradual investment in the charging infrastructure needed to support wide spread use of EVs. Unfortunately, too many people are star struck by Elon Musk and his fancy toys.

Emission and safety standards were all mandated and there were exactly the same arguments and rationalizations at the time. Every vehicle we drive today is far better because of them. This time, the manufacturers are jumping on the band wagon, not bitching about it and pushing back.

That said, I don't know that Tesla will be an eventual winner here, the likes of GM, VW, Ford, Toyota etc have deeper pockets and a huge manufacturing infrastructure that can be retooled instead of being built from scratch.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 07:55:57 pm
Emission and safety standards were all mandated and there were exactly the same arguments and rationalizations at the time. Every vehicle we drive today is far better because of them. This time, the manufacturers are jumping on the band wagon, not bitching about it and pushing back.
There is no comparison between mandating seatbelts or catalytic converters and mandating a entirely different engine type that is useless without a massive investment in infrastructure (an investment that governments seem to be determine to block at every opportunity because of local opposition).

I agree that the big makers are in the best position to benefit from the switch. Tesla's production problems show that building large scale manufacturing capability from scratch is not easy to do.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 17, 2017, 08:31:11 pm
There is no comparison between mandating seatbelts or catalytic converters and mandating a entirely different engine type that is useless without a massive investment in infrastructure (an investment that governments seem to be determine to block at every opportunity because of local opposition).

I agree that the big makers are in the best position to benefit from the switch. Tesla's production problems show that building large scale manufacturing capability from scratch is not easy to do.

If you think seatbelts and catalytic converters are all there are to safety and emissions improvements, you are about 40 years behind the times. Actually, electric motors predate IC engines by decades. Electric motors themselves are superior to IC engines in just about every way and are much cheaper to make and maintain. Fewer parts in the motor itself and no transmissions required. The issues are battery cost, capacity and recharging. That is where the most of the money is being invested.

I would miss IC engines though, EV's seem a bit too civilized for me. Even though current hybrid F1 cars are faster and burn a third less fuel than the old IC cars, I really miss the scream of a V10 at 20,000 RPM.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 17, 2017, 11:22:17 pm
The issues are battery cost, capacity and recharging. That is where the most of the money is being invested.
From a technical perspective EVs are superior to ICE but the batteries has always been its Achilles heel. Without an economically viable resolution to the battery/charging issue then EVs will remain bit players. That said, part of the charging issue can be handled with a culture change where people are forced to plan their day around charging their EV because that is all they are allowed to buy. I am arguing that this culture change is not going to happen in democracies because the voters will squash any politician that thinks they can force them to put up with the hassles of owning an EV. I don't see how technological progress can get around the charging issues because Power=VoltsxAmps is a pretty immutable law of physics. On top of the culture change needed to deal with the charging issue, there is a need for massive grid upgrade in a society that is simply unable to build any large projects anymore because of 'nimby gridlock'. Bottom line, I think we will be driving plug in hybrids in 2050 and EVs will remain a niche.

Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Omni on November 18, 2017, 12:40:24 am


Electric vehicles will one day push gas- or diesel-powered ones to the curb—but how soon? Sooner than you might think, according to researchers at the International Monetary Fund and Georgetown University: Based on how quickly horses and buggies disappeared in the early 1900s, the researchers argue, more than 90 per cent of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other rich countries could be electric by 2040.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/electric-cars-replace-gasoline-engines-2040/
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: MH on November 18, 2017, 08:23:02 am
@TimG - if costs continue to fall, wouldn't that be a factor ? 
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: MH on November 18, 2017, 08:26:11 am
Also - it strikes me that the entire paradigm of transportation will change transportation's nature entirely.  It may evolve as a service that makes sense to be offered as a utility, with advantages over private vehicles.  Streetcars were privately owned/managed and served the public well for a time also.  Just a thought.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 18, 2017, 08:51:52 am
@TimG - if costs continue to fall, wouldn't that be a factor?
It will be very hard - if not impossible - for the cost of EV including battery to be much less than an ICE. The best that can be hoped for is cost parity. Convenience will be an important factor: especially once EV reach a point where queues at charging stations become unbearable. The longer charging time compared to ICE means fewer vehicles can be serviced per hour given the space available at a gas/charging station. This problem will be aggravated because the need to build out grids mean it is not enough to expand charging throughput by just building a new station - getting the permits to upgrade the grid and/or build the power stations needed to provide the power on demand (read: fossil fuel) will mean huge lead times. In the meantime, hellish wait times for the EV driver while the ICE drivers laugh at them after spending 5 mins refueling.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: MH on November 18, 2017, 08:53:41 am
Well, obviously it would be a non-starter if the queues were like that anyway.  The market wouldn't support this.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 18, 2017, 09:07:03 am
Well, obviously it would be a non-starter if the queues were like that anyway.  The market wouldn't support this.
Well that is my point. Everyone is focused on the ghee-whiz technology of the vehicles themselves but no one is thinking about what would happen if a large number of people started to use them. Keep in mind that the ICE was clearly superior to the horse in terms of performance. convenience and, after the Model-T, cost. This meant there was a financial incentive to build out the huge fueling infrastructure we have today. OTOH, EVs offer modest performance benefits, no cost advantages and come with large inconveniences. The same financial incentive for private business will not exist for EV infrastructure which will likely need to be heavily subsidized by governments. This immediately means the chances of the EV infrastructure being built a rate sufficient to match demand is near zero.

As I said before: in countries where voters can vote out politicians that make their lives miserable, the plug-in hybrid will be the universally acceptable compromise between emissions and the convenience.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: MH on November 18, 2017, 09:09:44 am
Well, people like shiny things.  If it means that we reduce carbon emissions via hybrids and get cleaner air to boot, then great.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 18, 2017, 03:04:58 pm
I Find it interesting that TimG thinks trying to reduce the impact of CO2 caused global warming is a waste of time and has blind faith in our ability to develop the technologies required to mitigate its consequences, which he feels will be more cost effective. On the other hand, he believes  developing viable electric vehicles is beyond our capabilities.

I think plug in hybrids are an interim measure and it must be remembered that to take advantage of the efficiencies they offer, they must be plugged into the grid as well.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: wilber on November 18, 2017, 03:26:46 pm
This could one up Tesla's coupe.

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/fancy-building-652bhp-4wd-electric-supercar-call-williams (https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/fancy-building-652bhp-4wd-electric-supercar-call-williams)



Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: TimG on November 18, 2017, 03:29:05 pm
I Find it interesting that TimG thinks trying to reduce the impact of CO2 caused global warming is a waste of time and has blind faith in our ability to develop the technologies required to mitigate its consequences
<deleted to respect "no climate change" mandate for thread - in short my views on CO2/Adaptation and EVs are completely consistent>

On the other hand, he believes  developing viable electric vehicles is beyond our capabilities.
I also believe that developing a faster than light drive is beyond our capabilities. Is there a problem with that or you are do you really believe that any technology that you desire is "within human capabilities" just because you really really want it?

Note that I did say it was possible to go all EVs if the there was a large scale culture change where drivers learn to plan their days around their need to charge the EV. Such a culture change is more plausible than a charging station that can "fill" an EV in 5 minutes. I just don't think it is likely.

I think plug in hybrids are an interim measure and it must be remembered that to take advantage of the efficiencies they offer, they must be plugged into the grid as well.
Plug-in hybrids don't require the grid so individual drivers are not left stranded when the government inevitably makes a mess of the grid upgrade process. No one will care about EV efficiency gains if they need to get to work and the grid did not supply enough power to charge their battery.
Title: Re: Tesla New Vehicles
Post by: Omni on November 18, 2017, 04:32:23 pm
Well that is my point. Everyone is focused on the ghee-whiz technology of the vehicles themselves but no one is thinking about what would happen if a large number of people started to use them. Keep in mind that the ICE was clearly superior to the horse in terms of performance. convenience and, after the Model-T, cost. This meant there was a financial incentive to build out the huge fueling infrastructure we have today. OTOH, EVs offer modest performance benefits, no cost advantages and come with large inconveniences. The same financial incentive for private business will not exist for EV infrastructure which will likely need to be heavily subsidized by governments. This immediately means the chances of the EV infrastructure being built a rate sufficient to match demand is near zero.

As I said before: in countries where voters can vote out politicians that make their lives miserable, the plug-in hybrid will be the universally acceptable compromise between emissions and the convenience.

Of course they offer a cost advantage. Just look at the maintenance savings between 20 or so moving parts compared to 2000.