Canadian Politics Today

Beyond Ottawa => Provincial and Local Politics => Topic started by: kimmy on October 29, 2017, 12:07:39 pm

Title: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: kimmy on October 29, 2017, 12:07:39 pm
We're #1! We're #1!    A new study just ranked Vancouver as the most unaffordable city in North America!  YAAAAY!!!

https://www.straight.com/news/987356/vancouver-beats-manhattan-and-san-francisco-least-affordable-housing-north-america-study


 -k
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: MH on October 29, 2017, 12:43:15 pm
I hate the world.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: bcsapper on October 29, 2017, 02:03:07 pm
Probably the worst traffic too.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: the_squid on October 30, 2017, 09:48:45 am
Probably the worst traffic too.

Hardly...    Canadian cities have nothing on their American counterparts.  Seattle traffic is horrendous, even compared to Vancouver.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: bcsapper on October 30, 2017, 10:37:21 am
Hardly...    Canadian cities have nothing on their American counterparts.  Seattle traffic is horrendous, even compared to Vancouver.

I think it's second to LA, according to an article I remember.  I can believe it.  It was probably the main reason I got out of there.

That said, I am talking about the Lower Mainland as a whole.  Not just Vancouver itself.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: BC_cheque on October 30, 2017, 11:35:27 am
I wish John Horgan would get it together and ban foreign ownership like New Zealand has done.  It's really the only way to address the issue unlike these stupid surcharge taxes and empty house taxes.  If you can afford to buy a 20 million mansion and leave it empty for years, I'm sure you're not worried about some petty tax.  It's just a cost of business.

Only landed immigrants working in the country and citizens should be able to own property.  Christie Clark sold us out to the highest bidder for so long and now Trudeau is continuing her work. 

Meanwhile, neighbourhoods like Shaughnessy are full of squatters and burglary because of all the empty mansions.  Last week a heritage home worth 14 million was burned down under suspicious circumstances.  If a heritage house is burned more than 60% it can then be torn down and then a house worth 25 million could be built on it, how convenient.  It made me so sad, that house was gorgeous.  Built in 1913. 

Somehow I don't see any level of government wanting to touch this problem though.  They don't want to be the ones responsible for equity meltdown.  Nothing will be done until the have-nots have far surpassed the haves and a revolt is brewing.  Unfortunately, we're not there yet.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 10, 2017, 09:13:00 pm
Only landed immigrants working in the country and citizens should be able to own property.  Christie Clark sold us out to the highest bidder for so long and now Trudeau is continuing her work.
The data says excessive immigration is what is increasing demand and driving up prices - not foreign ownership although foreign ownership exacerbates the problem. More importantly, it is easy to get around the foreign ownership restrictions with a Canadian listed corporation. If politicians really wanted real estate prices to stabilize they would cut immigration to levels that keeps Canada's population stable at about 35,000,000. This is the only way to reduce the demand driving prices.

 
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 10, 2017, 09:22:15 pm
The data says excessive immigration is what is increasing demand and driving up prices - not foreign ownership although foreign ownership exacerbates the problem. More importantly, it is easy to get around the foreign ownership restrictions with a Canadian listed corporation. If politicians really wanted real estate prices to stabilize they would cut immigration to levels that keeps Canada's population stable at about 35,000,000. This is the only way to reduce the demand driving prices.

 

Limiting the population to the current levels would cause our economy to continue to stagnate. Why would you want that?
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: guest4 on November 10, 2017, 09:57:05 pm
The data says excessive immigration is what is increasing demand and driving up prices - not foreign ownership although foreign ownership exacerbates the problem. More importantly, it is easy to get around the foreign ownership restrictions with a Canadian listed corporation. If politicians really wanted real estate prices to stabilize they would cut immigration to levels that keeps Canada's population stable at about 35,000,000. This is the only way to reduce the demand driving prices.

What happens to our economy if our population is kept stable?

Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 10, 2017, 11:13:32 pm
What happens to our economy if our population is kept stable?

If I may I would suggest the numbers tell much of the story. We live on a larger land mass than the US with ~10% of the population, and  Even in our most populated cities, relatively low population density hampers infrastructure development. Then of course we have all those wide open spaces where we still have to build connecting highways, railroads, airports etc. Increase that density and the tax base, infrastructure improves as costs per capita go down. And then of course we are blessed with an abundance of natural resources, successful education/healthcare systems, a reputation as one of the most desirable country's to emigrate too, and we produce some of the best hockey players to have ever swung a CCM stick at a piece of frozen black rubber. So I'd say growth is worthwhile as well as inevitable. If we're not having babies then we need to bring them in. Of course we have to vet them, but we do. And having been lucky enough to have traveled to many of the far corners, I'm not afraid of people simply because they have a different skin color. My grade 8 public school teacher was as black as your boot, and a brilliant teacher, so I guess I got off to a good start.     
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 10, 2017, 11:38:15 pm
What happens to our economy if our population is kept stable?
Endlessly growing the population is not a long term solution. Eventually we will have to figure out how to manage an economy with a stable population. I see no reason not to start now. More importantly, would you rather live in slow/no growth economy where your kids and grand-kids could can afford housing or would you rather live in faster growth economy where housing prices continue to rise faster than wages and leaves more and more people behind?

More importantly, the idea that Canada has "lots of space" is a myth in practice because everyone wants/needs to live in big cities. If Canada really had "lots of space that people want to use" we would not see out of control property prices.

Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 10, 2017, 11:57:57 pm
Endlessly growing the population is not a long term solution. Eventually we will have to figure out how to manage an economy with a stable population. I see no reason not to start now. More importantly, would you rather live in slow/no growth economy where your kids and grand-kids could can afford housing or would you rather live in faster growth economy where housing prices continue to rise faster than wages and leaves more and more people behind?

More importantly, the idea that Canada has "lots of space" is a myth in practice because everyone wants/needs to live in big cities. If Canada really had "lots of space that people want to use" we would not see out of control property prices.

Oh c'mon. Canada has tons of space. And the way to create those cities you reckon everybody wants to live in, is simply to increase the population/tax base. There is every reason to start now so kids and grandkids can afford housing as they can in the US. Check the prices down there compared to here. 
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: guest4 on November 11, 2017, 12:03:47 am
It is true that world population is anticipated to stabilize at aroind 11 billion by about 2100.  There are fewer babies being born everywhere, not just in Weatern countries.  It will change economies, no doubt.  Here's an article that discusses what that might look like.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal (https://worldview.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal)
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 11, 2017, 12:23:29 am
The data says excessive immigration is what is increasing demand and driving up prices - not foreign ownership although foreign ownership exacerbates the problem. More importantly, it is easy to get around the foreign ownership restrictions with a Canadian listed corporation. If politicians really wanted real estate prices to stabilize they would cut immigration to levels that keeps Canada's population stable at about 35,000,000. This is the only way to reduce the demand driving prices.

 

I would like to hear exactly how you propose to stabilize the population at 35,000,000. Will you force people to have babies? Order them not to grow old and die? Or both.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 11, 2017, 12:30:14 am
I would like to hear exactly how you propose to stabilize the population at 35,000,000. Will you force people to have babies? Order them not to grow old and die? Or both.
Cut immigration to 100K a year or so and the population will be stable given current birth rates. If those rates change the adjust the immigration rates accordingly. It would be very easy to maintain a stable population if there was a political will.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 11, 2017, 12:39:17 am
It is true that world population is anticipated to stabilize at aroind 11 billion by about 2100.  There are fewer babies being born everywhere, not just in Weatern countries.  It will change economies, no doubt.  Here's an article that discusses what that might look like.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal (https://worldview.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal)

From your link:
Quote
The argument I am making here is that population decline will significantly transform the functioning of economies, but in the advanced industrial world it will not represent a catastrophe quite the contrary. Perhaps the most important change will be that where for the past 500 years bankers and financiers have held the upper hand, in a labor-scarce society having pools of labor to broker will be the key. I have no idea what that business model will look like, but I have no doubt that others will figure that out.

The effect on housing prices is one consequence of a growing population that causes real harm to people already living here. There are others. For example, if one cares about Canada's commitments to reduce CO2 emissions then the worst thing we could do is increase the population because every new person adds to the emissions.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 11, 2017, 12:55:34 am
Cut immigration to 100K a year or so and the population will be stable given current birth rates. If those rates change the adjust the immigration rates accordingly. It would be very easy to maintain a stable population if there was a political will.
Except we need to grow the population to grow the economy. Agai, simply look south. Should be obvious.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 11, 2017, 01:09:30 am
Except we need to grow the population to grow the economy. Agai, simply look south. Should be obvious.
And one of the reasons we need to grow the economy is to pay for services needed for the larger number of people. Your argument is like saying we have to keep using heroin because the stopping causes withdrawal symptoms. Stopping population growth would slow GDP growth but that is not necessarily a bad thing. In the long term we would forced to develop a more efficient and productive economy that will also be sustainable in the long term. It would also have a huge impact on housing affordability. It is a mystery why anyone who cares about out of control housing costs is unwilling to address to demand side of the equation.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: bcsapper on November 11, 2017, 10:53:43 am
Oh c'mon. Canada has tons of space. And the way to create those cities you reckon everybody wants to live in, is simply to increase the population/tax base. There is every reason to start now so kids and grandkids can afford housing as they can in the US. Check the prices down there compared to here.

I don't know about space.  It seems like everyone who wants to come and live here wants to move to one of three or four overcrowded cities.  I sure did.  I had to be here twenty plus years before I figured out I was better off away from a major population centre.

I have friends in Vancouver who are fretting about their retirement, all the while owning a million dollar plus home. 
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 12:06:20 pm
If I may I would suggest the numbers tell much of the story. We live on a larger land mass than the US with ~10% of the population, and  Even in our most populated cities, relatively low population density hampers infrastructure development.

And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology. As for those 'wide open spaces', more than 90% of us live in a thin strip of land along the US border. Nobody is coming to Canada to go live on the Arctic tundra. They're going to Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 12:22:40 pm
And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology. As for those 'wide open spaces', more than 90% of us live in a thin strip of land along the US border. Nobody is coming to Canada to go live on the Arctic tundra. They're going to Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

We will certainly see a degradation in our standard of living if we are all sitting around collecting OAP with nobody working. It's pretty simple to get your head around, if we aren't having babies then we need immigration. Our natural population growth is forecast to drop to 0 by 2033, not that long away eh. Keep in mind also that the composition of our immigration policy includes 60% economic class.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: JMT on November 12, 2017, 01:14:51 pm
And yet, we don't see any particular improvement in our standard of living from when we only had 25 million, or even 20 million people, aside from the advances of technology.

We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 12, 2017, 02:18:19 pm
We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

More importantly, Japan used to have out of control property prices. For a generation they have stabilized. There is nothing that impacts quality of life more than the cost of roof over your head. If we did a comparison of millennial living in Japan to one living in Canada your would have a tough time determining who is actually better off even though Japan had to deal with deflation and tepid aggregate GDP growth.

Lastly, Canada does not need to deal with a declining population because we can use immigration to keep it stable. But we should be keeping it stable because, in the long term, more people is not a benefit (look at China and India).
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 02:25:47 pm
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

More importantly, Japan used to have out of control property prices. For a generation they have stabilized. There is nothing that impacts quality of life more than the cost of roof over your head. If we did a comparison of millennial living in Japan to one living in Canada your would have a tough time determining who is actually better off even though Japan had to deal with deflation and tepid aggregate GDP growth.

Lastly, Canada does not need to deal with a declining population because we can use immigration to keep it stable. But we should be keeping it stable because, in the long term, more people is not a benefit (look at China and India).

Look at the US economy compared to Canada's.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: JMT on November 12, 2017, 02:42:50 pm
GDP per capita has continued to rise in Japan even as the population declines:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

Sure, after a decade of stagnation, they now are doing better.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 12, 2017, 02:43:09 pm
Look at the US economy compared to Canada's.
I don't think moving to a crime invested inner city filled with marginalized people is a model we want to emulate.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 12, 2017, 02:45:38 pm
Sure, after a decade of stagnation, they now are doing better.
Because they are learning how to manage a declining population which was my point from the start: getting off the population growth driven economy bandwagon will not be pain free. It is simply something that we will eventually have to deal with and dealing with it sooner than later will be better in the long term.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 03:05:10 pm
Because they are learning how to manage a declining population which was my point from the start: getting off the population growth driven economy bandwagon will not be pain free. It is simply something that we will eventually have to deal with and dealing with it sooner than later will be better in the long term.

The way they are managing it is by bringing in foreign guest workers. Doesn't that sound a little like immigration to you?
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 03:16:21 pm
We will certainly see a degradation in our standard of living if we are all sitting around collecting OAP with nobody working.

And how is this helped by importing immigrants without the requisite skillset to command sufficient salaries that they are actually paying taxes, as opposed to consuming services like health care which others must pay for?

Quote
It's pretty simple to get your head around, if we aren't having babies then we need immigration.

We don't need as many as we are getting. Our population would be stabilized with 100k, and we should be doing our best to get those who are going to pay taxes and adapt well to our culture and values.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 03:20:33 pm
We haven't seen it drop either.  Japan, with no immigration, has seen that happen.

Has it? In what way? Seems like a pretty rich land with a high standard of living to me.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 03:21:28 pm
The way they are managing it is by bringing in foreign guest workers. Doesn't that sound a little like immigration to you?

Canada does that too, despite immigration.

We only need about 100k immigrants to stabilize our population

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/10/21/skills-gap-canada-labour-shortage_n_4138487.html

To avoid having our retiree to worker percentage grow, well...

Canada would have to take in 2.6 million immigrants a year by 2020 and seven million by 2050 raising its population to 165.4-million if it wants to keep its ratio of retirees-to workers at its current 20%, according to a study from the C.D. Howe Institute.

https://www.pressreader.com/canada/national-post-latest-edition/20060927/282389804967681 (https://www.pressreader.com/canada/national-post-latest-edition/20060927/282389804967681)
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 03:30:29 pm
And how is this helped by importing immigrants without the requisite skillset to command sufficient salaries that they are actually paying taxes, as opposed to consuming services like health care which others must pay for?

We don't need as many as we are getting. Our population would be stabilized with 100k, and we should be doing our best to get those who are going to pay taxes and adapt well to our culture and values.

Perhaps you missed what I pointed out as to how our immigration policy requires 60% of those coming here to qualify for the  economic category.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 12, 2017, 03:32:53 pm
The way they are managing it is by bringing in foreign guest workers. Doesn't that sound a little like immigration to you?
The population of Japan - including guest workers - is declining. What I am proposing is that immigration continue in Canada - just at a rate to keep the population stable.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 03:40:09 pm
The population of Japan - including guest workers - is declining. What I am proposing is that immigration continue in Canada - just at a rate to keep the population stable.

And that's your prerogative. I myself would prefer to see the economy grow in parallel with immigration. Well regulated of course, but we do that pretty well now, and we would need to identify a saturation point, but we are far from that to date.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 04:03:36 pm
Perhaps you missed what I pointed out as to how our immigration policy requires 60% of those coming here to qualify for the  economic category.

I don't care if they all have multiple PHDs. The economic success rate of immigrants continues to deteriorate. You bring in a guy with a masters in engineering and expect him to work when he can't speak English? Not going to happen. The Tories thought degrees was the way to go, but the professional ranks in Canada have a very high insistence on superior communication skills. Taxi driver English won't cut it. You have to digest and regurgitate complex technical information in English, in writing and orally.

One of the main reasons the immigrants with the highest economic success come from Europe, India and the Philippines is because there is a very high exposure to English in those areas. Far higher than what you see in the middle east, China and north africa.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: SirJohn on November 12, 2017, 04:05:39 pm
And that's your prerogative. I myself would prefer to see the economy grow in parallel with immigration. Well regulated of course, but we do that pretty well now, and we would need to identify a saturation point, but we are far from that to date.

Foreign born population
US     12%
UK     12.5%
Can    20.5%

That is expected to rise to 30% within twenty years, according to stats canada, but that was before Trudeau announced the increases to immigration.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: Omni on November 12, 2017, 04:10:21 pm
Foreign born population
US     12%
UK     12.5%
Can    20.5%

That is expected to rise to 30% within twenty years, according to stats canada, but that was before Trudeau announced the increases to immigration.

I assume that offends your xenophobic tendencies.
Title: Re: Vancouver passes Manhattan and San Francisco!
Post by: TimG on November 12, 2017, 04:13:27 pm
we do that pretty well now, and we would need to identify a saturation point, but we are far from that to date.
The housing price problem proves you wrong. How high will property prices have to go before you think there is a problem? Would 10 million for a studio in TO be too much? Perhaps 50 million? At what point would you accept that bringing more and more people is not a net benefit?