Canadian Politics Today

Beyond Canada => American Politics => Topic started by: MH on October 26, 2020, 07:15:44 pm


Title: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 26, 2020, 07:15:44 pm
Ladies and generals !  We have ONE WEEK until the big big show !


Please put on your guessin' pants and PROGNOSTICATE the FINAL electoral college count !



Your guess HAS TO HAS TO HAS TO .... total  538 !!!

eg. Biden 310, Trump 228
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Biden - 370
Trump - 168

But Trump remains president for 2 weeks longer than he has the right to and is escorted out of the White House by the Secret Service.  Possibly jailed for an attempted coup.
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344-194

 -k
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Burn it down... 406/132

Biden takes Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, Texas and Georgia.    ;D
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I’d like to amend my prediction based on new data.  Trump 278, Biden 254.
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Biden will get somewhere between 350 and 400 electoral votes. I'm not willing to make a prediction.
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Quote from: Montgomery link=topic=1006.msg68245#
I'll say a Biden win with 350 and 188, as a narrow hunch 
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Quote from: waldo link=topic=1006.msg68245#
Biden 348: Trumpy 190
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 26, 2020, 07:26:48 pm
I’m going Trump 276, Biden 262.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on October 26, 2020, 07:59:17 pm
No idea.  I forget how their stupid system works.  Biden will likely win.  Or Trump, but a slim chance.  If it’s a close race, Trump might cheat out a victory.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 26, 2020, 08:05:50 pm
No idea.  I forget how their stupid system works.  Biden will likely win.  Or Trump, but a slim chance.  If it’s a close race, Trump might cheat out a victory.
Nice projection.  If anyone’s cheating it’s the disgusting Democrats trying to do away with mail in voting tiles like signatures having to match.  Nice try though.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on October 26, 2020, 08:13:20 pm
No idea.  I forget how their stupid system works.  Biden will likely win.  Or Trump, but a slim chance.  If it’s a close race, Trump might cheat out a victory.

The EC system may not only be stupid, but it certainly is outdated. And it wipes out the idea of democracy. Hillary won the pop. vote by about 3 million but donny got in under EC.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 26, 2020, 08:26:45 pm
The EC system may not only be stupid, but it certainly is outdated. And it wipes out the idea of democracy. Hillary won the pop. vote by about 3 million but donny got in under EC.
You don’t know what you’re talking about.  Besides, the United States is a democratic republic.  It’s a great system that overwhelming elected Barack Obama twice.  If Democrats stopped crafting policy solely based on the views of California and New York.  They’d do better in the electoral college.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 26, 2020, 09:01:29 pm
Ok - guesses only PLEASE
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on October 26, 2020, 09:06:28 pm
ok...  ill play...

Biden - 370
Trump - 168

But Trump remains president for 2 weeks longer than he has the right to and is escorted out of the White House by the Secret Service.  Possibly jailed for an attempted coup. 
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on October 26, 2020, 11:07:12 pm
You don’t know what you’re talking about.  Besides, the United States is a democratic republic.  It’s a great system that overwhelming elected Barack Obama twice.  If Democrats stopped crafting policy solely based on the views of California and New York.  They’d do better in the electoral college.

If the US would get rid of the EC they might actually have a democracy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/books/review/let-the-people-pick-the-president-jesse-wegman.html
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: kimmy on October 26, 2020, 11:10:41 pm
344-194

edit to add: for Biden, obviously.

 -k
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 12:17:05 am
I have no idea.  But it's going to be wild.

I'm just going to say that Trump will have a big lead at the end of election night and then Biden will come back days later with the mail-in and probably take it.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on October 27, 2020, 12:23:58 am
Burn it down... 406/132

Biden takes Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, Texas and Georgia.    ;D


Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on October 27, 2020, 12:24:36 am
I have no idea.  But it's going to be wild.

I'm just going to say that Trump will have a big lead at the end of election night and then Biden will come back days later with the mail-in and probably take it.

You must've missed the Kavanaugh news today.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 12:33:53 am
punters say... per OddsShark, today's latest odds show Biden is a -190 favourite to win... with Trumpy coming back at +145.

odds/returns from several of the major betting agencies - for every $1 bet the return would be:

=>TAB

• Biden: $1.54

• Trump: $2.50

=> LADBROKES

• Biden: $1.48

• Trump: $2.75

=> BETFAIR

• Biden: $1.49

• Trump: $3.05

=> SPORTSBET

• Biden: $1.47

• Trump: $2.80

=> NEDS

• Biden: $1.48

• Trump: $2.75
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 12:53:30 am
You must've missed the Kavanaugh news today.

With Barrett confirmed on Monday, USA Today says conservatives now have a 6-3 majority in the SCOTUS.  Even if Trump loses he will contest and he has a decent shot at doing so if these SCOTUS justices go full partisan d-bag.  They'd need 2 of the 6 to go against ideology, which is possible i hope.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 12:54:28 am
You must've missed the Kavanaugh news today.

wrt Wisconsin & over-turning a federal court ruling that would have allowed an extension to the mail-in voting deadline. A few other states have realized extensions through state-level judicial rulings... as state-level they aren't impacted by this SCOTUS ruling.

but really, what a F'kdUpCountry... a part of Justice Kagan's dissent pointedly targeting Justice Kavanaugh:

(https://i.imgur.com/XiESjFt.png)

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on October 27, 2020, 01:00:03 am
With Barrett confirmed on Monday, USA Today says conservatives now have a 6-3 majority in the SCOTUS.  Even if Trump loses he will contest and he has a decent shot at doing so if these SCOTUS justices go full partisan d-bag.  They'd need 2 of the 6 to go against ideology, which is possible i hope.

Kavanaugh doesn't want to count votes received after election day, even if time-stamped before.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 10:18:47 am
Kavanaugh doesn't want to count votes received after election day, even if time-stamped before.
In accordance with the law.  Judges have uphold law, not write new ones.  Legislators write laws allowing votes to count after Election Day.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 10:33:26 am
Legislators write laws allowing votes to count after Election Day.

member Shady, now do: legitimate votes cast before election day

say, for instance, for example: someone/some group intervened in the operations of the U.S. Postal Service attempting to delay the receipt of legitimate votes cast before election day. What about that circumstance, hey!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 10:35:52 am
Kavanaugh doesn't want to count votes received after election day, even if time-stamped before.

Well he's one of the 6 that will go hard right.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 10:40:34 am
Kavanaugh doesn't want to count votes received after election day, even if time-stamped before.

again, the case/ruling had to do with a single state federal court ruling (Wisconsin). Now certainly, this might be precedent setting; however, I'm unaware of any other similar/like state specific federal rulings in play now...
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 10:41:20 am
With Barrett confirmed on Monday, USA Today says conservatives now have a 6-3 majority in the SCOTUS.  Even if Trump loses he will contest and he has a decent shot at doing so if these SCOTUS justices go full partisan d-bag.

so qualified!  ;D

(https://i.imgur.com/JhVPRJM.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 10:42:20 am
member Shady, now do: legitimate votes cast before election day

say, for instance, for example: someone/some group intervened in the operations of the U.S. Postal Service attempting to delay the receipt of legitimate votes cast before election day. What about that circumstance, hey!
Please cite election law.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 10:43:17 am
Well he's one of the 6 that will go hard right.
Nowadays a judge that enforced existing law is considered hard right.  That’s how warped things have gotten.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 10:47:40 am
so qualified!  ;D

(https://i.imgur.com/JhVPRJM.png)
Please reserve your propaganda for another thread.  This is suppose to be electoral college predictions.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 10:53:36 am
Please cite election law.

wait now; the waldo was asking you!

now certainly, the Kavanaugh concurring ruling may have further... broader... implications. Certainly his statements speak to that possibility; even where he writes in a footnote of his concurring opinion:

Quote
Under the U.S. Constitution, the state courts do not have a blank check to rewrite state election laws for federal elections

so it appears the expected Trumpy challenge is being puuurfectly established/set-up!  ;D What a bananaRepublic!

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 10:57:25 am
Please reserve your propaganda for another thread.  This is suppose to be electoral college predictions.

how inconvenient for you! Those bullet-points are factual - not propaganda! Considering the electoral college outcome may be contested and ultimately ruled upon by SCOTUS, highlighting the weak... limited qualification of Barrett is certainly appropriate discussion in this related thread - no matter how much of a whinyLittleBeeatch you are!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 11:01:29 am
how inconvenient for you! Those bullet-points are factual - not propaganda! Considering the electoral college outcome may be contested and ultimately ruled upon by SCOTUS, highlighting the weak... limited qualification of Barrett is certainly appropriate discussion in this related thread - no matter how much of a whinyLittleBeeatch you are!
Electoral predictions please.  Do you have a mental problem?  Start your own thread.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 11:11:20 am
Electoral predictions please.  Do you have a mental problem?  Start your own thread.

like I said, I expect the electoral college outcome to be challenged through the courts - of course that will translate on down through the results of particular states. The makeup of the ultimate presiding court is certainly a factor... despite your whining!

clearly you have a desire here to exercise your renowned comprehension problems; that coupled with your most suspect mental acuity as relates to focus, concentration, understanding, etc..
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 11:15:53 am
like I said, I expect the electoral college outcome to be challenged through the courts - of course that will translate on down through the results of particular states. The makeup of the ultimate presiding court is certainly a factor... despite your whining!

clearly you have a desire here to exercise your renowned comprehension problems; that coupled with your most suspect mental acuity as relates to focus, concentration, understanding, etc..
Yes the court could be a factor.  Democrats will be resigned to follow existing law.  The court had been remarkably consistent.  They’re not going to overturn state law while an election is in progress.  In Pennsylvania, that resulted in what Democrats wanted.  In Wisconsin, it didn’t.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 11:30:49 am
Yes the court could be a factor.  Democrats will be resigned to follow existing law.  The court had been remarkably consistent.  They’re not going to overturn state law while an election is in progress.  In Pennsylvania, that resulted in what Democrats wanted.  In Wisconsin, it didn’t.

election rules... not laws! In the case of Wisconsin, a lower-court ruling, in consideration of Covid-19 impacting upon voters wanting to mail-in their votes to avoid long election day lineups, had granted an extension to allow the monumental number of mail-in votes to be counted. The Kavanaugh concurring opinion wiped that out - cause... bananaRepublic!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 11:45:31 am
election rules... not laws! In the case of Wisconsin, a lower-court ruling, in consideration of Covid-19 impacting upon voters wanting to mail-in their votes to avoid long election day lineups, had granted an extension to allow the monumental number of mail-in votes to be counted. The Kavanaugh concurring opinion wiped that out - cause... bananaRepublic!
Complete nonsense.  The court took the same position in Pennsylvania, not interfering with an existing election and not overturning state law.  In the case of Pennsylvania is worked out for Democrats.  It didn't in Wisconsin.  Blame legislators for having half a year to make law resolving all of these issues, and not doing so.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 27, 2020, 11:45:57 am
waldo - if you insist on posting all over my predictions thread, would you do me the favour of quoting all the predictions in one post so we don't have to scroll everywhere to check 'em election night ??
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 12:29:37 pm
I’d like to amend my prediction based on new data.  Trump 278, Biden 254.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 12:30:58 pm
waldo - if you insist on posting all over my predictions thread, would you do me the favour of quoting all the predictions in one post so we don't have to scroll everywhere to check 'em election night ??

wait, what? Not only did I post betting odd 'predictions', but hey now... I posted following the theme predicting judicial review/settlement of said electoral count! Are you that naive to consider the election day count may not stand the test of court challenges? Of what use is YOUR apparent desire to have prediction count numbers that may be over-turned? Of what use is your limited, narrow-focused thread?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 12:32:26 pm
Biden will get somewhere between 350 and 400 electoral votes. I'm not willing to make a prediction.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 12:33:17 pm
I’m going Trump 276, Biden 262.
I’d like to amend my prediction based on new data.  Trump 278, Biden 254.

scintillating!  ;D
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 27, 2020, 12:40:59 pm
  Of what use is your limited, narrow-focused thread?

Its use is that it is limited and narrow-focused.  We already have more than enough election threads.

I plan to refer to this on election night and see whose dart got closest to the bullseye.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on October 27, 2020, 12:54:11 pm
Its use is that it is limited and narrow-focused.

Of what use is YOUR apparent desire to have prediction count numbers that may be over-turned?

Hardners, 'myWay'... or noWay  ;D
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 27, 2020, 01:04:52 pm
Someone has to pick up the litter...

Anyway, I am not going to moderate this thread for on-topic, lest I **** off one of my fave posters here so have at it.

If nobody does a summary of the predictions at the end, I will do so...
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 01:24:40 pm
On a positive note, if Biden looks like the winner on election day, the outstanding ballots will leave enough doubt in everybody's minds that it could turn over before it's decided. The positive point I'm making is that the extreme right won't turn to violence in the streets with their guns until they know they have an issue that warrants blood running in the streets.

So intead of a positive loss that they would be able to act upon, they will almost assuredly be faced with an undecided situation and that will have the power to defuse them temporarily. That would likely take the wind out of their sails and then defuse them permanently.

Disappointing unless Trump is faced with a convincing loss and then the extreme right will almost certainly start the murdering.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on October 27, 2020, 01:58:58 pm
On a positive note, if Biden looks like the winner on election day, the outstanding ballots will leave enough doubt in everybody's minds that it could turn over before it's decided. The positive point I'm making is that the extreme right won't turn to violence in the streets with their guns until they know they have an issue that warrants blood running in the streets.

So intead of a positive loss that they would be able to act upon, they will almost assuredly be faced with an undecided situation and that will have the power to defuse them temporarily. That would likely take the wind out of their sails and then defuse them permanently.

Disappointing unless Trump is faced with a convincing loss and then the extreme right will almost certainly start the murdering.
This also isn’t an electoral college prediction. 
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 02:06:49 pm
This also isn’t an electoral college prediction.

It's what I choose to make it shady and that's because this board has hashed and rehashed to issues so many times over that it's become meaningless.

There's real meaning in the prospect of an undecided US on November 4th. because it will temporarily defuse those rightist who are determined to turn to gun violence if Trump loses. The voilence will be much harder to promote if the decision only comes in drips and drabs.

If you want to discuss that, fill your boots. If you don't then find somebody else to hound.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 27, 2020, 02:29:34 pm
I am cutting/pasting your guesses into the OP.

I took Nov 4th off for this !  ;D
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 02:35:24 pm
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed and we will never agree on the true winner.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 02:39:48 pm
I predict the US is at the closet it's been to civil war in 155 years.  I predict a high likelihood of violence. 
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 02:43:00 pm
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed and we will never agree on the true winner.

Somebody will decide for you.
But consider the consequences if you were right!

For the sake of MH who seems to want to make a poll out of it, I'll say a Biden win with 350 and 188, as a narrow hunch as opposed to your suspicions of a total beakdown of America's democratic electoral system, that would necessitate another election.

I commend you for you out of the box thinking!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 02:47:13 pm
I predict the US is at the closet it's been to civil war in 155 years.  I predict a high likelihood of violence.

It seems inescapable doesn't it.
But the biggest detractor from that scenario is the very high possibility that no decision will be possible on the presedential side of it at least. This has the power of defusing the violence.
And when the final decision comes, the situation will be so well defused that it won't have the power to motivate any of them into pulling the trigger (s).
Or maybe just a narrow few will?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 02:49:36 pm
Somebody will decide for you.

Somebody decided the 2000 Bush/Gore debacle, but that's still not agreed on.  The difference there is the courts were listened to.  If the court are now 6-3 conservative in the SCOTUS, and Trump makes a legal challenge, that's where poop hits the fan, and people may not listen if the decision is seen by many as politically motivated.

The best case scenario is a blow-out win by one of the candidates, likely Biden, so it's not even close enough to dispute.  In 2000 things got messy because it was so close.

I really don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.  This is the most interesting election of my lifetime.

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 02:59:36 pm
Somebody decided the 2000 Bush/Gore debacle, but that's still not agreed on.  The difference there is the courts were listened to.  If the court are now 6-3 conservative in the SCOTUS, and Trump makes a legal challenge, that's where poop hits the fan, and people may not listen if the decision is seen by many as politically motivated.

The best case scenario is a blow-out win by one of the candidates, likely Biden, so it's not even close enough to dispute.  In 2000 things got messy because it was so close.

I really don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.  This is the most interesting election of my lifetime.

I don't disagree with any of that. A complete blowout for Biden could put it all to bed and save their country. But barring that, even though that's my prediction as the end result, there's saving grace for the US in that the decision is quite likely going to come out slowly over time.

So I'll add to my prediction that it will be a decisivie win for Biden on about November 15th.

Quote
I really don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.  This is the most interesting election of my lifetime.

I haven't checked on what the bookmakers are saying but that's probably the safest bet due to their lack of bias and main concern being their wallets. Do you?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on October 27, 2020, 03:06:03 pm
You know the system is **** if it can’t handle a close race.   Did someone already mention “Banana Republic”?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 03:14:10 pm
You know the system is **** if it can’t handle a close race.   Did someone already mention “Banana Republic”?

At the risk of encouraging you to spam the forum, the US system is already ****. That's where the fun comes in.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: segnosaur on October 27, 2020, 03:42:52 pm
You know the system is **** if it can’t handle a close race.   Did someone already mention “Banana Republic”?
Here is the thing...

I am not really sure "the system" is to blame. I think any political system is prone to corruption if the wrong people get involved.

Canada has been pretty stable, and while I may not have voted for Trudeau or Chretien, I never got the impression that they were actively trying to destroy the country. Could you imagine someone like Trump as a Prime Minister, where there would be even fewer checks and balances to his power?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 03:48:41 pm

I haven't checked on what the bookmakers are saying but that's probably the safest bet due to their lack of bias and main concern being their wallets.

I agree.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 03:57:34 pm
Here is the thing...

I am not really sure "the system" is to blame. I think any political system is prone to corruption if the wrong people get involved.

Canada has been pretty stable, and while I may not have voted for Trudeau or Chretien, I never got the impression that they were actively trying to destroy the country. Could you imagine someone like Trump as a Prime Minister, where there would be even fewer checks and balances to his power?

I agree.  The US system has checks and balances.  Trump can't introduce legislation, he depends on 2 different houses of Congress.  Then there's the SCOTUS, and term limits.

In Canada, if there's a majority gov the PM can serve unlimited terms where he/she can introduce and vote on bills and whip members of his party on how to vote, and chooses the members of cabinet,  the members of SCOTUS (as they are replaced), the GG, and the Senate (as they are replaced).  Those are his checks on power.

Luckily the provinces need to consent to changes to the constitution.

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 05:38:32 pm
In theory, the American system seems much better than the Westminster model of government. In theory.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on October 27, 2020, 05:40:50 pm
In theory, the American system seems much better than the Westminster model of government. In theory.

How so?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 05:45:03 pm
How so?

In theory, as discussed above, it was designed with checks and balances and a separation of powers to avoid the concentration of power that was held by early English and British monarchs. That was a nice theory. In practice, the Westminster system and those like it have proven far more versatile and successful than the form of government used in the United States and almost every other country south of Canada in this hemisphere.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 05:49:43 pm
In theory, as discussed above, it was designed with checks and balances and a separation of powers to avoid the concentration of power that was held by early English and British monarchs. That was a nice theory. In practice, the Westminster system and those like it have proven far more versatile and successful than the form of government used in the United States and almost every other country south of Canada in this hemisphere.

I don't agree.  I think there's good and bad in each.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on October 27, 2020, 05:52:47 pm
I don't agree.  I think there's good and bad in each.

Please list what’s better about the US system.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 06:03:48 pm
I don't agree.  I think there's good and bad in each.

If you look at the list of successful democracies it is dominated by constitutional monarchies (Westminster and similar - Canada, UK, Denmark, Spain, Australia, Norway, etc) and parliamentary republics (Germany, Italy, Israel, Finland, Iceland, etc). Presidential (USA) and semi presidential (France) systems are a rare occurrence on the list despite making up not insignificant portions of the world's countries.

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 27, 2020, 06:12:00 pm
If you look at the list of successful democracies it is dominated by constitutional monarchies (Westminster and similar - Canada, UK, Denmark, Spain, Australia, Norway, etc) and parliamentary republics (Germany, Italy, Israel, Finland, Iceland, etc). Presidential (USA) and semi presidential (France) systems are a rare occurrence on the list despite making up not insignificant portions of the world's countries.

It's turned out that the US system alone is the perfect recipe for failure. It's doubtful they will ever be able to withdraw their flags from their assholes long enough to change it to something that has a chance of success.

We musn't be too gentle with them when they're on the brink of becoming another fascist regime that will be more consistent with their foreign policy of wars and more wars, since the end of WW2.

If not now being the time to call the spades, then soon!

Let's make it before either they or their favourite apartheid regime decides to use nuclear weapons in Iran!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 06:33:46 pm
Sorry for the derail MH.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 06:36:34 pm
If you look at the list of successful democracies it is dominated by constitutional monarchies (Westminster and similar - Canada, UK, Denmark, Spain, Australia, Norway, etc) and parliamentary republics (Germany, Italy, Israel, Finland, Iceland, etc). Presidential (USA) and semi presidential (France) systems are a rare occurrence on the list despite making up not insignificant portions of the world's countries.

You can't compare Denmark to Mexico or some African " democratic republic".  There's a lot of other variables going on there besides political system.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 06:51:49 pm
You can't compare Denmark to Mexico or some African " democratic republic".  There's a lot of other variables going on there besides political system.

You can't separate a country from the political system that they've chosen, either.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on October 27, 2020, 07:23:09 pm
Sorry for the derail MH.

S'ok

Please note I have cut/pasted predictions into the first post on this thread.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on October 27, 2020, 08:29:58 pm
You can't separate a country from the political system that they've chosen, either.

Healthy democracies virtually never occur in developing countries no matter the system.  There's parliamentary systems in the developing world that are rife with corruption.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on October 27, 2020, 08:50:51 pm
Healthy democracies virtually never occur in developing countries no matter the system. 

And they almost never occur in countries with a powerful chief executive. That's kind of the point.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on October 28, 2020, 01:00:28 pm
And they almost never occur in countries with a powerful chief executive. That's kind of the point.

Is that a good reason for Venezuela's failure? And if not, then is it a good reason for some other country's failure? How about Cuba when it was still failing?

I like Venezuela so are you correct about Hugo Chavez who rose to power by taking the side of the poor people in his country, which necessitated his turn to socialist policy on his country's oil resources?

Not so fast JMT!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 02, 2020, 12:17:13 am
Biden 348: Trumpy 190

(https://i.imgur.com/VjCHEhF.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 02, 2020, 10:11:07 am
We're probably in for a pretty boring next 36 hours or so, while the clean their guns, sort out their different ammunition, and dig up their large capacity magazines from the potato gardens.

It's worth the wait.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 02, 2020, 09:01:01 pm
Chance Trump wins in a landslide - <1%

Chance Biden wins in a landslide - 29%

Five thirty eight.com
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on November 02, 2020, 09:22:39 pm
Chance Trump wins in a landslide - <1%

Chance Biden wins in a landslide - 29%

Five thirty eight.com
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: guest78 on November 02, 2020, 09:23:10 pm
Biden 348: Trumpy 190

(https://i.imgur.com/VjCHEhF.png)
Sounds very 2016-ish to me!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on November 02, 2020, 10:22:10 pm
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?

His chances in 2016 were about the same as an obese drug-addict who gorges on fast food overcoming COVID.  Not impossible but surprising.

Without getting all mathy and stuff... his chances are even less this time around.  But I concede, it's not literally zero.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on November 02, 2020, 10:26:59 pm
We're probably in for a pretty boring next 36 hours or so, while the clean their guns, sort out their different ammunition, and dig up their large capacity magazines from the potato gardens.

It's worth the wait.

Let the record show... I did not mean to like this post.  It was an accident.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 02, 2020, 10:51:51 pm
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?

If anything, Nate is being overcautious this time because of 2016. Leantossup has Biden with a blowout, winning Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 03, 2020, 07:23:26 am
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?

Adding to BC Cheque - there were errors in the polling methods in 2016 which presumably have been corrected.  Also the undecideds selected Trump over Clinton at a large margin with no evidence of that in the cards for this election.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: kimmy on November 03, 2020, 10:08:51 am
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.  And there's also the question of "intend to vote" vs "actually voted."  The "voter enthusiasm gap" was one reason Clinton didn't win .  This time I think that Democrat voters have been sufficiently riled up by Trump antics to somewhat close that deficit.

 -k
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 03, 2020, 11:48:33 am
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.   

I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 03, 2020, 12:36:45 pm
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

Agreed.  People have a difficult time with statistical models and wrapping their heads around the fact that the models gave Trump a non-insignificant chance of winning in 2016, and that was what ended up happening. 

“Likely outcome” does not mean “definite outcome”.  Polling and the models predicting the outcomes are far from perfect, and don’t claim to be.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 03, 2020, 12:46:49 pm
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.  And there's also the question of "intend to vote" vs "actually voted."  The "voter enthusiasm gap" was one reason Clinton didn't win .  This time I think that Democrat voters have been sufficiently riled up by Trump antics to somewhat close that deficit.

 -k

Hard to know what happened.  Many undecided people may have got into the booth thinking of voting clinton and then said "ahh screw it" and voted Trump.  Trump was a brick people could throw at the status quo.  Or it could have been a turnout issue, you can poll people but it doesn't mean they'll show up to vote.  I haven't really looked into the whole thing.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 03, 2020, 12:49:09 pm
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

I've heard also that the "shy Trump vote" also wasn't really a factor.  Although how they know this and are able to venture inside people's mind, who knows.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on November 03, 2020, 01:20:05 pm
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

Nate Silver said a lot of where 2016 went wrong was 1) the 'uneducated' voter which ended up voting more for Trump (and was taken into account for 2020) and 2) the undecided voter which swung for Trump, but 2020 goes into polling day with much less undecideds. 
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: eyeball on November 03, 2020, 01:21:03 pm
I've heard also that the "shy Trump vote" also wasn't really a factor.  Although how they know this and are able to venture inside people's mind, who knows.
There is a precedent for the Shy American, recall those who would sew Canadian flags on their backpacks when traveling abroad.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 03, 2020, 01:42:20 pm
Americans don't deserve to have anything better than Trump.
Who cares if he's no worse for the rest of the world on US foreign policy? He's no more likely to start more wars than any other American would.

And his potential to cause harm to that county with his domestic policy is a plus for Trump and the rest of the world.

It's going to be a very entertaining night for me, regardless of the winner. The reason for that is because they will all be bigger losers when it's all over.

Don't buy the cheap champagne, this is a time for the best!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 03, 2020, 04:18:00 pm
summary survey says - Biden across the board!

(https://i.imgur.com/KLs8CTX.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on November 03, 2020, 05:31:26 pm
Polls close at 7 EST for Florida and Trump doesn't have much of a path forward without Florida.

It might be an early evening.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 03, 2020, 05:45:44 pm
Polls close at 7 EST for Florida and Trump doesn't have much of a path forward without Florida.

It might be an early evening.

I’m sticking around for the cheating and the violence. 

(https://media.tenor.com/images/23b875bff0290d88431de8cb75a161c3/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: BC_cheque on November 03, 2020, 05:52:28 pm
What are your drinking tonight, Squid?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 03, 2020, 06:01:24 pm
What are your drinking tonight, Squid?

I made a great cocktail the other night that I think I’ll have tonight.  A peaty scotch whisky, lemon juice, pineapple juice, agave nectar and some bitters...   i think i tried one with peach bitters and another with ginger bitters.  Both were good.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 03, 2020, 07:40:44 pm
This is really **** up.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 03, 2020, 07:50:19 pm
#BestBuy was trending on Twitter.  Apparently people joking about looting them tomorrow after the results.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 03, 2020, 07:53:06 pm
The Jerry Springer-ization of America, including its politics and journalism, fascinates me.  To cut through the noise you gotta be bonkers and loud I guess.  I mean it worked for KISS and Alice Cooper.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 03, 2020, 07:54:28 pm
Got three series we have been following on Gem, Netflix and Crave. Might check on the election before bed.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 03, 2020, 09:36:07 pm
Listen.  You can hear a pin drop.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 03, 2020, 10:56:46 pm
I'll never consider anything Leantossup or Evan Scrimshaw have to say ever again.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: kimmy on November 03, 2020, 11:01:47 pm
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest. 

So right now it kinda looks like this race is a little closer than the polls said it would be. 

Right now it looks a lot like 2016 aside from Arizona probably flipping.  But they're saying that there is still a very large number of mail-in votes and early votes to be counted, and that mail-in and early votes usually lean Democrat, so it's not over yet.

Still, after talking for 4 years about learning from their mistakes, it would be funny if all they got for it is Arizona.

Feels very different here, though. In 2016 I was stunned, and my US born-and-raised girlfriend Tanya was having a meltdown. I was worried that she was going to start throwing stuff.  Today I'm surprised, but not shocked, and it's more a "theatre of the absurd" type feeling... like "lol, I can't believe this is happening again." And Lindsey just doesn't care, so I don't have to worry about my TV getting destroyed.

 -k
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: kimmy on November 03, 2020, 11:41:02 pm
I’d like to amend my prediction based on new data.  Trump 278, Biden 254.


And we all thought he was crazy.

 -k
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: kimmy on November 03, 2020, 11:50:47 pm
Adding to BC Cheque - there were errors in the polling methods in 2016 which presumably have been corrected.  Also the undecideds selected Trump over Clinton at a large margin with no evidence of that in the cards for this election.

There is clearly something wrong with the polling.  While the outcome isn't certain yet, it's clear that Democrats have underperformed polls by a significant level in many many races in both presidential and senate races. 

 -k
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 01:52:22 am

And we all thought he was crazy.

 -k

If the vote counting stopped now, the results would be 293 vs 244 for Trump.

But lots of mails to be counted, and from here on out many think Biden will gain votes over Trump.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 02:35:57 am
There is clearly something wrong with the polling.  While the outcome isn't certain yet, it's clear that Democrats have underperformed polls by a significant level in many many races in both presidential and senate races. 

 -k

And they’ll quite possibly lose the house.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 07:39:53 am
Does anyone know how Maine's fourth district went? I can't seem to find any results.

If Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan go Biden but Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC go for Trump, that vote will be the tie-breaker.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 04, 2020, 08:24:14 am

And we all thought he was crazy.

 -k

Shady will have the closest guess when the dust settles.

Kudos are due.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 08:39:34 am
There is clearly something wrong with the polling.  While the outcome isn't certain yet, it's clear that Democrats have underperformed polls by a significant level in many many races in both presidential and senate races. 

 -k

See you're falling into the trap that Election Night results are what are to be followed.

Florida, Texas and Ohio were going to be tough, they were always just gravy.

Arizona and Georgia are still very much in play.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 09:05:41 am
Does anyone know how Maine's fourth district went? I can't seem to find any results.

I'm not sure they've called Maine 2, but the Democrat got into the House.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 09:07:47 am
Biden takes the lead in Michigan.

If he can hold the lead where he has it, he has 270.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 10:12:23 am
No Senate means no judges. **** up country.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 04, 2020, 10:35:21 am
Now the clown show begins....   will he leave?   Which law enforcement agency escorts him out?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 10:41:43 am
I'm not sure they've called Maine 2, but the Democrat got into the House.

My mistake - the house race wasn’t called yet
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 10:50:29 am
My mistake - the house race wasn’t called yet

Doesn't matter, the Nebraska Vote is all he needs.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 12:39:41 pm
Doesn't matter, the Nebraska Vote is all he needs.

Yeah, Trump won it anyway.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 01:00:42 pm
Yeah, Trump won it anyway.

Not sure about that.
https://wgme.com/news/local/biden-picks-up-1-of-maines-4-electoral-votes
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on November 04, 2020, 01:01:51 pm
Now the clown show begins....   will he leave?   Which law enforcement agency escorts him out?

Secret Service I believe. I'd love to see it come to that. Trump in cuffs escorted fro the WH.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 04, 2020, 01:19:39 pm
One the least interesting and entertaining is that Trump is demanding a recount for Wisconsin.

former WI Gov says:

(https://i.imgur.com/sWqxQgo.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Boges on November 04, 2020, 01:22:40 pm
If they were looking for a state to fight the margin, Nevada looks like the closest one.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 04, 2020, 01:28:21 pm
cause... 'no meaningful access'!

(https://i.imgur.com/Ur4TW4K.jpg)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 04, 2020, 01:32:48 pm
 ;D public polling... a 'voter suppression' tactic!

(https://i.imgur.com/Xu1s4DX.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: waldo on November 04, 2020, 01:40:30 pm
do they? Do they matter? BLM - yes?  ;D

(https://i.imgur.com/6omwUhu.png)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 01:55:40 pm
Not sure about that.
https://wgme.com/news/local/biden-picks-up-1-of-maines-4-electoral-votes

Biden ended up with Maine and Maine 1. Trump got Maine 2 (according to AP).
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 04, 2020, 02:44:10 pm
Well, wake me when it is finally over. My respect for the US took a big hit when they elected Trump the first time. Regardless of who wins now, it is non existent.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 03:44:05 pm
CBC calls Michigan in Biden's favour.  CNN says Biden is "on cusp of 270" with 253.  I still think this will be drawn out, the Trump's are gearing up for lawsuits.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 03:59:19 pm
In Biden 2 speeches today he's ended it with "May God bless America, and may God bless our troops".

Dude is trying to curry favor with the US military.  Consider how insane that is given the possibility that Trump doesn't want to leave the WH.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 06:22:52 pm
In Biden 2 speeches today he's ended it with "May God bless America, and may God bless our troops".

Dude is trying to curry favor with the US military.  Consider how insane that is given the possibility that Trump doesn't want to leave the WH.

That's a pretty **** up thing to say. Biden always ends his speeches that way, and Biden isn't the one attempting to be an autocratic dictator.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: eyeball on November 04, 2020, 06:28:51 pm
In Biden 2 speeches today he's ended it with "May God bless America, and may God bless our troops".

Dude is trying to curry favor with the US military.  Consider how insane that is given the possibility that Trump doesn't want to leave the WH.
Seems prudent given Trump's calls to 2nd Amendment folks, Proud Boys etc.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 04, 2020, 06:31:06 pm
Seems prudent given Trump's calls to 2nd Amendment folks, Proud Boys etc.
Frightening thought that the military might have to get involved.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 06:44:12 pm
That's a pretty **** up thing to say. Biden always ends his speeches that way, and Biden isn't the one attempting to be an autocratic dictator.

You're right he does always say that, i checked a speech from 2019.  But it's not a **** up thing to say, given what's going on.

Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 04, 2020, 06:49:10 pm
You're right he does always say that, i checked a speech from 2019.  But it's not a **** up thing to say, given what's going on.

It's pretty **** up. I mean, Biden isn't the one doing the wrong thing.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 08:55:28 pm
I have no idea.  But it's going to be wild.

I'm just going to say that Trump will have a big lead at the end of election night and then Biden will come back days later with the mail-in and probably take it.

I'll just put this here and pick up my trophy later...
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 04, 2020, 08:59:01 pm
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed and we will never agree on the true winner.

Cleaning off my mantle in preparation for the arrival of my trophy.

If Waldo and Shady can agree on the final electoral vote tally before the Jan. swearing-in i'll concede my title.  But not before I sue.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 05, 2020, 06:07:06 am
I'll just put this here and pick up my trophy later...

Ok - did you predict a count ?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 05, 2020, 11:46:13 am
What's been happening for the last 12 hours; there's no change in the numbers. This looks like they're holding the results because they know that their country is about to erupt into some very serious violence.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 05, 2020, 11:47:34 am
My prediction was way off on the votes.

Now...  my prediction that Trump will need to be escorted out by authorities...  I think that may just happen.

I’d like to see an attempted coup.  It would be a fitting end to this melodrama they call an “election”.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 05, 2020, 11:48:54 am
What's been happening for the last 12 hours; there's no change in the numbers. This looks like they're holding the results because they know that their country is about to erupt into some very serious violence.

WHO is “holding back the numbers”?
The UN?
The cabal of lizard people? 

What’s RT telling you to think??
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 05, 2020, 11:53:45 am
WHO is “holding back the numbers”?
The UN?
The cabal of lizard people? 

What’s RT telling you to think??

I haven't checked at RT.com yet today but I will now and I'll report anything important.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 05, 2020, 12:15:12 pm
https://www.rt.com/usa/505355-presidential-election-live-updates/

Nothing out of the ordinary but a mocking tone from them today. Satisfying at least and some crazy tweets from Trump and a few others. Russia will be non-biased until something is settled and then they'll go with the winner.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 05, 2020, 12:42:15 pm
I get a kick out of some of Marina Hyde's columns. She has a way with words.

This is from yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/ok-america-so-what-the-hell-happens-now
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on November 05, 2020, 12:57:06 pm
What's been happening for the last 12 hours; there's no change in the numbers. This looks like they're holding the results because they know that their country is about to erupt into some very serious violence.

Actually the numbers have been changing in certain states, and of course the numbers of mail in ballots to be counted will certainly slow the process.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 05, 2020, 02:05:07 pm
Actually the numbers have been changing in certain states, and of course the numbers of mail in ballots to be counted will certainly slow the process.

Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 05, 2020, 02:15:56 pm
Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?

Pennsylvania is allowing three days for votes postmarked by election day to be counted.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on November 05, 2020, 02:26:53 pm
Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?

The fact that trump's numbers in Georgia continue to slide and the uncounted ballots re from jurisdictions that tend to be Dem. is quite meaningful. If trump were to lose Georgia it's all but over.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 12, 2020, 07:14:07 pm
Looks like I'm going to end up closest...
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 12, 2020, 10:40:04 pm
Looks like I'm going to end up closest...

You're in the closet?  Huh?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 18, 2020, 02:50:05 pm
BTW Fivethirtyeight posted the final model talk episode of the podcast.  Having listened, I feel that I now understand Silver's model, what it really is. I echo what he says about the importance of DISCUSSING polls but at the same time the 538 model is his own product and is not a rigorous or scientifically sound thing. 

( Polling science is real and mathematically proven, but not HIS poll of polls. )

When he says 'Biden to win with 90% chance' it is indeed a very well crafted and educated GUESS.  Unlike a real poll.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 18, 2020, 02:54:46 pm
BTW Fivethirtyeight posted the final model talk episode of the podcast.  Having listened, I feel that I now understand Silver's model, what it really is. I echo what he says about the importance of DISCUSSING polls but at the same time the 538 model is his own product and is not a rigorous or scientifically sound thing. 

( Polling science is real and mathematically proven, but not HIS poll of polls. )

When he says 'Biden to win with 90% chance' it is indeed a very well crafted and educated GUESS.  Unlike a real poll.

I would see it as just offering the 10% remaining as hope for the Trump extremists.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 18, 2020, 03:02:26 pm
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed and we will never agree on the true winner.

Graham still looking good!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 18, 2020, 03:10:13 pm
Graham still looking good!

Actually, Graham may find himself in deep doo doo for election interference. ;D
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Black Dog on November 18, 2020, 03:30:42 pm
Graham still looking good!

Let's parse taht prediction:

Quote
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed

Given Trump/the GOP basically announced that they would not accept any election result that led to their defeat as legitimate and that performative outrage is essentially the entire conservative ethos these days, this was never a question.

Quote
and we will never agree on the true winner.

"True winner" implies some kind of doubt over the actual results. There is none. That some dead-enders refuse to accept the result doesn't change the result itself. Biden won and won handily.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: MH on November 18, 2020, 03:36:10 pm
Graham still looking good!
;D
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 19, 2020, 10:48:51 am
"True winner" implies some kind of doubt over the actual results. There is none. That some dead-enders refuse to accept the result doesn't change the result itself. Biden won and won handily.

True enough, but when I said "we will never agree" I mean people like Shady too.  ;)
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Black Dog on November 19, 2020, 10:57:39 am
True enough, but when I said "we will never agree" I mean people like Shady too.  ;)

Oh god that dingus is here?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 19, 2020, 11:14:42 am
Interesting, in that the US could be in the process of creating a new political system, knowing that their current system doesn't work. A system in which one party doesn't accept the other party. Respect for their presidents kept it together but now there's no reason why a president should be respected by his political opponents. This could become the norm for that country long after Trump is gone.

Why not? Biden will be completely useless without some compromising support from the GOP Senators.

Already a big move by Trump on bringing some of the US military home, regardless of the wishes of the military brass! Something that's going to be very difficult to reverse by Biden. US foreign policy could be compromised for the sake of US domestic infighting, and that can't be a bad thing for world peace.

Just hoping those troops aren't being relocated to some other small country's borders in preparation for America's next war?
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 19, 2020, 11:58:22 am
Oh god that dingus is here?

He does the odd drive by. Hangs around for awhile then disappears.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 19, 2020, 11:30:14 pm
Oh god that dingus is here?

Yes. Don't worry, the things he says here are just as dumb as the things he says on MLW.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Black Dog on November 20, 2020, 09:18:02 am
Yes. Don't worry, the things he says here are just as dumb as the things he says on MLW.

I'm sure he's at home crying into his Trump steaks.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 21, 2020, 12:01:31 pm
Graham still looking good!

We're probably going to disagree on a lot Gorgeous but your contributions to this board are important and usually say something worth reading. Unlike the spammers who are totally intent on tearing this board down to their level.

Anyway, it's still woth riding until if falls off the rails!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: wilber on November 21, 2020, 02:00:33 pm
I'm sure he's at home crying into his Trump steaks.

You may have noticed.
Now we have a guy who lectures everyone when their posts don't meet his approval.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on November 21, 2020, 02:06:50 pm
You may have noticed.
Now we have a guy who lectures everyone when their posts don't meet his approval.

I find my "ignore" button seems to solve that irritant quite nicely.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: eyeball on November 21, 2020, 02:52:09 pm
I find my "ignore" button seems to solve that irritant quite nicely.
What ignore button? I don't seem to have one.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Omni on November 21, 2020, 03:04:16 pm
What ignore button? I don't seem to have one.

Well I don't have any buttons you don't have which is I guess why I put the quotations marks around the word. How I make it work is when I begin to read something where it's applicable I scroll back to the top and hit Home and move along to more sensible discussion. Seems to work well.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 21, 2020, 03:24:20 pm
Well I don't have any buttons you don't have which is I guess why I put the quotations marks around the word. How I make it work is when I begin to read something where it's applicable I scroll back to the top and hit Home and move along to more sensible discussion. Seems to work well.

Well it's either that or you were just pretending to have an "ignore" button?

People who pretend to ignore others always turn out to be pretending sooner or later!
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: the_squid on November 21, 2020, 04:20:25 pm
The ‘ignore’ function doesn’t work on this site.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Gorgeous Graham on November 21, 2020, 05:32:17 pm
The ‘ignore’ function doesn’t work on this site.

Works inside my brain though.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: JMT on November 21, 2020, 11:02:02 pm
Works inside my brain though.

I know where you’re coming from.
Title: Re: Electoral College Predictions !
Post by: Montgomery on November 22, 2020, 12:56:11 pm
Works inside my brain though.

If you're interested in an active forum, do your part.