Author Topic: The End of the World Thread  (Read 390 times)

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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2019, 01:51:57 pm »
Actually it isnít but as you say, it is your opinion, to which you are quite entitled.
The available evidence is like a Rorschach ink blot. People can and do stretch the evidence to support whatever agenda they have. I don't see why you are so quick to assume that climate change is the dominate explanation for what we seem to agree is a complex multi-factorial problem.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 02:01:18 pm by TimG »

Offline queenmandy85

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2019, 01:57:40 pm »
We are only getting a tiny hint of what is coming. We won't start feeling the real impact for a while.
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2019, 02:03:22 pm »
We are only getting a tiny hint of what is coming. We won't start feeling the real impact for a while.
Maybe we will. Maybe we won't. We have no way to predict the future but we do have a real problem with people using "climate change" as the default explanation for anything bad. As long as people are willing to do this without thinking we cannot have a sensible conversation about the problems we face.

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2019, 02:20:20 pm »
According to a study done by the National Academy of Science, a 10% reduction of crop yield in Mexico results in 2% more people trying to enter the US from Mexico.

Itís funny that we can predict so many things but no matter how much we study, it we canít predict the effects of climate change. Odd that is.
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2019, 02:53:06 pm »
According to a study done by the National Academy of Science, a 10% reduction of crop yield in Mexico results in 2% more people trying to enter the US from Mexico.
1) crop yields have been steadily increasing over 100 years thanks larges to fossil fuels. If there is reduction due to climate change it will not erase the gains. We also do not know that there will be a reduction since farmers are good at adapting.

2) It simply nonsense to claim that a reduction in crop yields definitively is linked to migration because migration only happens if the governments are incapable of managing the problem (i.e. what are the chances of people migrating from the US if crop yields go down?). Therefore, it is more valid to say that bad government leads to migration - not climate change.

Itís funny that we can predict so many things but no matter how much we study, it we canít predict the effects of climate change. Odd that is.
It is not odd at all. When it comes to climate change controlled experiments are impossible. We don't even have the option of double blind studies which are the gold standard in medicine. This means there is no way to determine what claims have merit and which are nonsense.

But we also have a history of doom mongers to look back on. Remember the population bomb? All of those "predictions" were made based on the best science of the day yet they were spectacularly wrong. Why should we assume these climate change predictions will fare any better?

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2019, 03:52:53 pm »
Population has increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7 billion now and is forecast to be 9 billion by 2050. You yourself say population is an issue but somehow the world not being able to feed them will have no effect on human migration. You don't need a blind study to figure out that doesn't make sense. Geez Louise according to you we shouldn't try to forecast anything because we can't do a blind study on the future.
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2019, 05:19:53 pm »
You yourself say population is an issue but somehow the world not being able to feed them will have no effect on human migration.
We would have problems feeding them no matter what which means the base problem is *over population* not climate change. Your argument is like arguing an obese person should switch to diet soda when the real problem is they eat too much.

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2019, 07:36:09 pm »
We would have problems feeding them no matter what which means the base problem is *over population* not climate change. Your argument is like arguing an obese person should switch to diet soda when the real problem is they eat too much.

Your argument is people will stay where they are if they are starving and see survival somewhere else. Ainít going to happen.

Donít you think that tripling the population in the last 70 years with what it has done to the earths atmosphere and oceans could have any impact on the earths climate? Why would you think it would affect everything but climate? Thatís not logical.
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2019, 08:02:21 pm »
Your argument is people will stay where they are if they are starving and see survival somewhere else. Ainít going to happen.
We are taking past each other. I am arguing that if people migrate it is not because of climate change - it is because of incompetent governments that are not able to meet their needs. Developed countries generally have competent governments and even if climate change affects food production there is little concern that they will not be able to ensure their people have food.

Donít you think that tripling the population in the last 70 years with what it has done to the earths atmosphere and oceans could have any impact on the earths climate? Why would you think it would affect everything but climate? Thatís not logical.
But that is not what I am saying. I am saying that the core problem is over population - not climate change. Climate change may be an aggravating factor but it is not the primary cause. The primary cause is too many people living in societies with incompetent governments.

The only reason the "blame everything on climate change" meme appears in the media so much is because it suits the agenda of a large number of political actors. It is not a fact or even a reasonable hypothesis because it ignores the elephant in the room which is bad government and over population.

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2019, 08:42:03 pm »
We are taking past each other. I am arguing that if people migrate it is not because of climate change - it is because of incompetent governments that are not able to meet their needs. Developed countries generally have competent governments and even if climate change affects food production there is little concern that they will not be able to ensure their people have food.
But that is not what I am saying. I am saying that the core problem is over population - not climate change. Climate change may be an aggravating factor but it is not the primary cause. The primary cause is too many people living in societies with incompetent governments.

The only reason the "blame everything on climate change" meme appears in the media so much is because it suits the agenda of a large number of political actors. It is not a fact or even a reasonable hypothesis because it ignores the elephant in the room which is bad government and over population.

There are reasons governments cannot meet needs that have anything to do with the earth itself as far as you are concerned. Bad government is responsible for droughts, hurricanes, warming oceans. Humans can't possibly have anything to do with that even though their numbers have increased 300% in the last 70 years.

I'm not blaming everything on climate change, I'm just incredulous that you completely dismiss it in spite of all the research that says it is real.
 
You are right about one thing, cutting the worlds population in half would solve a lot. I'm glad I won't be around to see how mother nature does it. I do worry about my grand kids though, they didn't sign on for the consequences of our willful ignorance, they have a right to expect better.

« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 09:02:48 pm by wilber »
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #25 on: May 05, 2019, 09:43:17 pm »
Bad government is responsible for droughts, hurricanes, warming oceans.
There have been droughts, hurricanes and other events from the dawn of time. Humans with good government adapt and their people thrive. Humans with bad government suffer. Look at China under Mao. Millions starved because of bad government. Now there is no serious risk of a large scale famine in China even with climate change. The only thing that changed is government.

I'm not blaming everything on climate change, I'm just incredulous that you completely dismiss it in spite of all the research that says it is real.
Research said stress causes ulcers, red wine is good for you and vaccines cause autism. None of these claims are true. No research can show that climate change is a causal factor because, without controlled experiments, it is simply impossible so separate it out from all of the confounding factors. Any research that claims to do so is highly suspect.
 
You are right about one thing, cutting the worlds population in half would solve a lot. I'm glad I won't be around to see how mother nature does it.
This is my point. Dealing with mother nature requires good government, strong economies and access to cheap energy. Policies that sacrifice that to pursue the mirage of CO2 reductions will be less able to adapt.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 10:12:45 pm by TimG »

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2019, 12:19:40 am »
Adapt to what? You claim nothing is happening.
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2019, 12:55:46 am »
Adapt to what? You claim nothing is happening.
You are not reading my arguments. I have never said that climate change is not happening. I am only arguing that the incessant stream of media stories trying to blame everything bad on climate change are wrong headed and a distraction. Climate may be a factor but other things which we actually have more control over are often bigger factors. For example, flood in Quebec may have been affected by climate change but a bigger factor may be land used changes where water that use to sink into the water table is being diverted via sewers and ditches into the rivers. Unlike CO2, land use is something we can actually do something about.

Offline wilber

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2019, 09:20:20 am »
You are not reading my arguments. I have never said that climate change is not happening. I am only arguing that the incessant stream of media stories trying to blame everything bad on climate change are wrong headed and a distraction. Climate may be a factor but other things which we actually have more control over are often bigger factors. For example, flood in Quebec may have been affected by climate change but a bigger factor may be land used changes where water that use to sink into the water table is being diverted via sewers and ditches into the rivers. Unlike CO2, land use is something we can actually do something about.

All those have nothing to do with climate change and itís effects, they are just other examples of what we have got wrong. Do you plan on moving Richmond, much of Delta and the Fraser Valley? Ever been to Shanghai? Much of the worlds most productive farm land and hundreds of millions of people are located on river deltas. You claim to know the consequences of rising sea levels and changing climate and their costs but donít think it is worthwhile lifting a finger to mitigate our part in them or even trying to slow them down. Humans emit 22 gigatons of CO2 that the worldís carbon cycle cannot absorb yet you think this can somehow go on forever without us doing anything. You are the one  guilty of the same blind faith you accuse others of. 
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 09:30:00 am by wilber »
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Offline TimG

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Re: The End of the World Thread
« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2019, 10:06:10 am »
You claim to know the consequences of rising sea levels and changing climate and their costs but donít think it is worthwhile lifting a finger to mitigate our part in them or even trying to slow them down.
I make no such claim. I only claim that we have limited resources to do anything and pissing away those resources on reducing CO2 is misguided because the tech we have to reduce CO2 emissions will only have a marginal impact at best. It is simply dumb. The resources that we do have need to be directed at adaptation. Whether we like it or not mitigation has to be a secondary objective and only considered when cost effective technologies are available.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 10:08:53 am by TimG »