Author Topic: Polling isn't getting worse  (Read 320 times)

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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2020, 04:48:10 pm »
Old thread but I think it's a propos.

The polls AREN'T all right.

This is the listen of the year for me, and changed my mind.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-to-make-polls-better/

I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2020, 05:20:02 pm »
I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)

Even broken conspiracy-clocks are right twice a day.
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2020, 06:14:39 pm »
I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)

I don't remember discussing this with you but no matter.  My views on this have changed 180 degrees.  I was partially swayed by the type of person Nate Silver maps to, ie. liberal rationalist and as such I am no better than some Iowan fooled by Trump. In my defense I have now changed.  In his defense, he hasn't come through with a final analysis yet.  Let's see if he changes his tune on what his model really provides.

I enjoy being wrong.  The world becomes very interesting when you have a bunch of things to learn and review.

guest78

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2020, 12:32:41 pm »
The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate.  Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%.  When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

Offline wilber

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2020, 12:51:04 pm »
The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate.  Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%.  When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

In these cases they suppressed the vote to the Republican's advantage. They make Democrat supporters less likely to feel the need to vote if polls show they have a big lead.
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guest78

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2020, 12:53:01 pm »
In these cases they suppressed the vote to the Republican's advantage. They make Democrat supporters less likely to feel the need to vote if polls show they have a big lead.
Not necessarily.  If you think you're candidate is going to lose, you're less likely to be motivated to vote. 

Offline wilber

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2020, 01:00:53 pm »
Not necessarily.  If you think you're candidate is going to lose, you're less likely to be motivated to vote.

That would make it a wash.
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2020, 01:13:33 pm »
1. The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate. 

2. Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%. 

3. When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

1. Yes, but inaccuracy doesn't necessarily follow.
2. Republicans over-performed from what they were polled at.
3. It doesn't seem to have worked in their favour though.  It seems odd for us to say "Republicans ignore polls" and yet say they're supressed.  But the main conclusion is we need to take a hard look at polls and figure out how to fix them.  We do need polling and some people got it right.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2021, 04:09:41 pm »
As per my note to Graham above, the final assessment from the five thirty eight came out of their performance.

They concluded, and I concur, that Trump voters are reluctant to talk to pollsters.  This isn't the same as the shy Trump voter theory, but it does result in being unable to predict Trump's final numbers.

Some polls seem to get accuracy from an oversampling of landlines, but that doesn't seem to have occurred on purpose.

The five thirty eight works ok in other contexts, but it's not a poll.  It's an idea by one guy only.  Not as accurate as a well designed poll.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2021, 09:52:48 am »
There's so much **** that goes into this that it would be exhausting to go through it all. The polls are mostly sound but the largest problem is the proprietary methods companies have for weighted distributions and outcome predictions. They poll nationally for locally-contested polls that work like FPTP, especially when it comes to the electoral college. There are different proprietary models that these pollsters use to take a sample and project the results on a national scale. There will ALWAYS be an element of error to this. They're not and never have been shooting for pin-point accuracy. Predictive models like these are always shooting for a range. The results of the polls have always been well within tolerances of that, for most reputable pollsters anyway.

The trouble with hotly contested elections is that the margins of error overlap, so it makes the prediction a lot more difficult. If someone only has a ~17% chance of winning, that's still literally Russian Roulette for the results. 17% is literally a 1:6 chance of winning, so load up that gun, spin the chamber, and pull the trigger. Chances are you survive, but that's still not a game any rational person would look at and say, "there's NO chance of dying."

The problem with polls are not the polls themselves, but rather most people's understanding of what they actually say. The news reports on sensationalist, nonsense absolutes. People are uncomfortable with uncertainty. Statistics is literally the field of math where you need to live in the area of uncertainty.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #25 on: February 16, 2021, 10:16:12 am »
There's so much **** that goes into this that it would be exhausting to go through it all. The polls are mostly sound but the largest problem is the proprietary methods companies have for weighted distributions and outcome predictions. They poll nationally for locally-contested polls that work like FPTP, especially when it comes to the electoral college. There are different proprietary models that these pollsters use to take a sample and project the results on a national scale. There will ALWAYS be an element of error to this. They're not and never have been shooting for pin-point accuracy. Predictive models like these are always shooting for a range. The results of the polls have always been well within tolerances of that, for most reputable pollsters anyway.

Right, but what you are missing (I think, anyway) is why polls have started experiencing issues post-2000.  It's mobile phones and random sampling, which do not go together.  If polls are within tolerances (and I don't think they always are) there would still be a question why Trump support always skews the same way.

It's not "shy Trump voters" but it's "paranoid, "we hate the system", "refuse to talk to pollsters" Trump voters that come out of their holes like groundhogs ONLY TO VOTE FOR TRUMP that are the latest iteration here.


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The trouble with hotly contested elections is that the margins of error overlap, so it makes the prediction a lot more difficult. If someone only has a ~17% chance of winning, that's still literally Russian Roulette for the results. 17% is literally a 1:6 chance of winning, so load up that gun, spin the chamber, and pull the trigger. Chances are you survive, but that's still not a game any rational person would look at and say, "there's NO chance of dying."

Ok but Silver's model is NOT a poll it's a subjectively weighted aggregate of polls.  He decides, for example, what are 'good' polls and weights them according to.... [throws a dart at dartboard] quality factors.

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The problem with polls are not the polls themselves, but rather most people's understanding of what they actually say.

Also true, and I was saying this after 2016 also.  But when the 2020 results skewed the same way, something indeed seemed odd.  Of course, you can flip a coin and get heads 50 times in a row but this seemed different.  The conclusion Five Thirty Eight reached is that there likely is a phantom Trump voter.

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The news reports on sensationalist, nonsense absolutes. People are uncomfortable with uncertainty. Statistics is literally the field of math where you need to live in the area of uncertainty.

Sure but good random sampling is the lifeblood of quality polls, and The Five Thirty Eight have their own oddities that have to be absorbed in such a conversation.

That said, I'm still happy with having them around.   The Georgia polls showed up accurately, meaning that absence of Trump is a good thing ... in yet another new and wonderful way.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2021, 10:53:05 am »
OR how about maybe, just maybe, the possibility of Republican fraud?

For all the politicians in Georgia who push back against him. How many went along with his coup attempt?

Food for thought.
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