Author Topic: Polling isn't getting worse  (Read 138 times)

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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2020, 04:48:10 pm »
Old thread but I think it's a propos.

The polls AREN'T all right.

This is the listen of the year for me, and changed my mind.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-to-make-polls-better/

I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline the_squid

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2020, 05:20:02 pm »
I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)

Even broken conspiracy-clocks are right twice a day.
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Offline MH

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2020, 06:14:39 pm »
I'm not going to tell you I told you so.  But I just did lol  ;)

I don't remember discussing this with you but no matter.  My views on this have changed 180 degrees.  I was partially swayed by the type of person Nate Silver maps to, ie. liberal rationalist and as such I am no better than some Iowan fooled by Trump. In my defense I have now changed.  In his defense, he hasn't come through with a final analysis yet.  Let's see if he changes his tune on what his model really provides.

I enjoy being wrong.  The world becomes very interesting when you have a bunch of things to learn and review.

guest78

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2020, 12:32:41 pm »
The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate.  Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%.  When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

Offline wilber

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2020, 12:51:04 pm »
The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate.  Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%.  When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

In these cases they suppressed the vote to the Republican's advantage. They make Democrat supporters less likely to feel the need to vote if polls show they have a big lead.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

guest78

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2020, 12:53:01 pm »
In these cases they suppressed the vote to the Republican's advantage. They make Democrat supporters less likely to feel the need to vote if polls show they have a big lead.
Not necessarily.  If you think you're candidate is going to lose, you're less likely to be motivated to vote. 

Offline wilber

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2020, 01:00:53 pm »
Not necessarily.  If you think you're candidate is going to lose, you're less likely to be motivated to vote.

That would make it a wash.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline MH

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Re: Polling isn't getting worse
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2020, 01:13:33 pm »
1. The problem is that people are less willing to pollsters their voting intentions.  Thus, polls have become increasingly inaccurate. 

2. Some polls were off by 10+ points in the recent presidential election.  Some Republican senators didn't lead a single poll up to election day ended up winning by 8+ points.  Some polls had Trump down 5-8 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.  He ended up losing by 0.5%. 

3. When polls are off by that much, in one direction, they're tantamount to voter suppression.  But that kind of voter suppression the Libs don't care about.  Because it works in their favour.

1. Yes, but inaccuracy doesn't necessarily follow.
2. Republicans over-performed from what they were polled at.
3. It doesn't seem to have worked in their favour though.  It seems odd for us to say "Republicans ignore polls" and yet say they're supressed.  But the main conclusion is we need to take a hard look at polls and figure out how to fix them.  We do need polling and some people got it right.