Author Topic: Hurricane Irma - The Strongest Ever Recorded in the Atlantic  (Read 315 times)

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Offline JMT

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Hurricane Irma - The Strongest Ever Recorded in the Atlantic
« on: September 05, 2017, 08:38:20 pm »
Discuss here.

I realize that climate doesn't equal weather, but, in this case, it's hard not to see the impact.  The water is getting warmer, and this hurricane is stronger than it would have otherwise been.  A scientist working at the US National Hurricane Center tweeted that he simply couldn't believe his eyes looking at the satellite radar picture of Irma. 

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Offline JMT

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Offline JMT

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Here's the tweet I talked about earlier:

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905205124699750401

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When "worst on record" becomes commonplace, perhaps the reality of what climate change brings us will begin to sink in for people who think its some kind of trick to "fool" everyone.  Although I can't help hoping they're right.

Offline MH

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When "worst on record" becomes commonplace, perhaps the reality of what climate change brings us will begin to sink in for people who think its some kind of trick to "fool" everyone.  Although I can't help hoping they're right.

I have several Burner friends who are impacted, including my upstairs neighbour's family who are currently being hit in the Caribbean. 

Here's a survey of the science.  First a blog that indicates the science isn't settled on whether there are MORE storms, but that there's consensus on the size of the storms that are happening.

The Climate Science special report for the US produced it's final draft in June.  The conclusion is on p23 - intensity of tropical storms increasing (high confidence), frequency increasing (low confidence)

Offline MH

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Another overview of current research:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

It's important to note that unlike Climate Change, we are not at a point of consensus that the changes under study are happening

Offline TimG

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Here's a survey of the science.  First a blog that indicates the science isn't settled on whether there are MORE storms, but that there's consensus on the size of the storms that are happening.
That blog is a shameless propaganda site that selectively omits information and misrepresents the science to push an alarmist agenda. You can get more balanced discussion of the issues here: https://judithcurry.com/. The author is a recognized expert in hurricanes who set up the blog because she got sick of her colleagues exaggerating how much we actually knew.

The Climate Science special report for the US produced it's final draft in June.  The conclusion is on p23 - intensity of tropical storms increasing (high confidence), frequency increasing (low confidence)
Here is a counter point https://judithcurry.com/2017/08/20/reviewing-the-climate-science-special-report/. The actual data shows storms of clearly decreasing in frequency (we have not had a hurricane hit the US in 12 years).
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 07:35:23 am by TimG »

Offline MH

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That blog is a shameless propaganda site that selectively omits information and misrepresents the science to push an alarmist agenda.

Yeah, I hesitated to post a blog because I knew that 'personal blogs' could come back in response.  The blog I posted, though, is a survey of the recent science and the US report provides the background.

Quote
The actual data shows storms of clearly decreasing in frequency (we have not had a hurricane hit the US in 12 years).

I agree that the science of frequency is not near settled, with even contradictory studies coming out.  But the intensity of storms does seem to be increasing.  Even then, if consensus emerges there will be people who don't accept it.

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I agree that the science of frequency is not near settled, with even contradictory studies coming out.  But the intensity of storms does seem to be increasing.  Even then, if consensus emerges there will be people who don't accept it.

It's interesting to find information on what was being forecast 10 or 15 years ago, and compare to what is happening now.   I think the evidence will simply become overwhelming, even for the most determined skeptic, within the next decade.


Offline Omni

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For those who don't like/understand climate science, here's an analogy. Let's say a professional baseball player gets into using steroids and then starts hitting  5 times more home runs. You couldn't necessarily assign any particular home run to the drug use, but the correlation of the overall increase would be obvious.
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Offline MH

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Even then, if consensus emerges there will be people who don't accept it.

Disinfo clown Rush Limbaugh says storms are a conspiracy:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/rush-limbaugh-hurricane-irma_us_59af580ee4b0dfaafcf39424

Offline Omni

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Disinfo clown Rush Limbaugh says storms are a conspiracy:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/rush-limbaugh-hurricane-irma_us_59af580ee4b0dfaafcf39424

He and Alex Jones keep Trump well "informed". Scary!

Offline waldo

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You can get more balanced discussion of the issues here

shocking that you favour a blog that speaks to your, as you say, "agenda"! Shocking...

The actual data shows storms of clearly decreasing in frequency (we have not had a hurricane hit the US in 12 years).

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notwithstanding it's a big global ocean network... more than just your focus on the Atlantic basin; see wind shear and cooler near-coastal water:

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Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v541/n7637/full/nature20783.html?foxtrotcallback=true

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The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes7. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear8, 9, 10 (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely11, 12, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 11:21:55 am by waldo »

Offline Omni

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And now Juan is following behind Irma. Any guesses as to what the next one will be named? It will be a female name starting with a K.

Offline Goddess

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And we all laughed when Ken Ham built that stupid ark...... :P

I have a freind who evacuated from Venice last night, on her way to Virginia now.  Her pictures from yesterday of the hurricane are mind-blowing.  Reminds me of that tsunami.
"A religion without a Goddess is half-way to atheism."