Author Topic: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?  (Read 15781 times)

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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #345 on: January 27, 2022, 09:11:59 pm »
If the models don’t work, then how come they’ve been so accurate?

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/

Predicting the climate 15 years into the future by drawing a line that continues in the exact same trajectory as the previous 35 years isn't very impressive.  If they can tell me the temp in 80 years i'll be impressed.  If they can accurately predict what things like GHG released from thawing tundra and melted ice caps will do i'll be impressed.
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #346 on: January 27, 2022, 10:11:14 pm »
1. No he is wrong.  To a layman like him, or likely you, this would make sense but here's an analogy: you have to predict how long it will take you to drive to the take-out place and bring dinner back for your family.  What variables do you need to know to predict how long it will take ?

I would submit something like: traffic levels for your route at similar hours, and maybe emergency notices... the point being that you can pretty much predict how long it will take given two variables.  With temperature it is two basic things: sunlight levels and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

How do you know this?

Quote
2. You are at this point just repeating what you have heard armchair skeptics say.  Let me ask you (without looking) what the IPCC prediction for temperature change is... the fact is that they have been pretty accurate.

What is your confidence that model projections for the year 2100 will be accurate?  The models themselves already have not insignificant margins of error built into them because they're aware of their own limitations.  I'm not anti-model, they are what they, educated guesses but aren't gospel.  Just like a poll, even the best ones have a margin for error and can't capture everything.

It's like saying "hey my weather app predicted the weather 2 days in advance, that must means they'll also be accurate in predicting the weather 2 weeks from now".  I'm not saying weather is the same as climate, i'm saying models for things with lots of variables start to break down more and more over time because that is their nature.

I'm not using this in any way to "deny climate change".  In fact it's possible the models could underestimate future warming.
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Offline Spike The Hike Shady

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #347 on: January 27, 2022, 10:13:34 pm »
How do you know this?

What is your confidence that model projections for the year 2100 will be accurate?  The models themselves already have not insignificant margins of error built into them because they're aware of their own limitations.  I'm not anti-model, they are what they, educated guesses but aren't gospel.  Just like a poll, even the best ones have a margin for error and can't capture everything.

It's like saying "hey my weather app predicted the weather 2 days in advance, that must means they'll also be accurate in predicting the weather 2 weeks from now".  I'm not saying weather is the same as climate, i'm saying models for things with lots of variables start to break down more and more over time because that is their nature.

I'm not using this in any way to "deny climate change".  In fact it's possible the models could underestimate future warming.
Only a complete moron would accept modelling predictions for 80 years from now.  These models are based on existing technology and can’t account for any advances over the next 8 decades.  These predictions are completely worthless.
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Online Michael Hardner

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #348 on: January 28, 2022, 06:35:58 am »
Predicting the climate 15 years into the future by drawing a line that continues in the exact same trajectory as the previous 35 years isn't very impressive.  If they can tell me the temp in 80 years i'll be impressed.  If they can accurately predict what things like GHG released from thawing tundra and melted ice caps will do i'll be impressed.

That's not what is happening - it is/was an upwards curve.

If you can think back in time when math got difficult for you and imagine studying it for about 6 more years with it getting harder and harder you can start to imagine how much you are out of line here.
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Online Michael Hardner

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #349 on: January 28, 2022, 06:45:57 am »
1. How do you know this?

2. What is your confidence that model projections for the year 2100 will be accurate?  The models themselves already have not insignificant margins of error built into them because they're aware of their own limitations. 

3. I'm not anti-model, they are what they, educated guesses but aren't gospel.  Just like a poll, even the best ones have a margin for error and can't capture everything.

4. It's like saying "hey my weather app predicted the weather 2 days in advance, that must means they'll also be accurate in predicting the weather 2 weeks from now".  I'm not saying weather is the same as climate, i'm saying models for things with lots of variables start to break down more and more over time because that is their nature.

5. I'm not using this in any way to "deny climate change".  In fact it's possible the models could underestimate future warming.

1. I could say that I had a minor-equivalent in stats with my mathematics degree, but that wouldn't matter to people who watch the clown Peterson and the stand-up comic Joe Rogan discuss climate change as though they understand it.

I would say that in my studies I learned to know when I have a grasp of something, when I know it well and when I have no idea.  When I have no idea, I look to learn.  Around the time of Climategate I started to wonder if there was something going on with Climate Science.  I found a series of videos by a science journalist Peter Hadfield.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52KLGqDSAjo&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP

Unlike people like Peterson, he always explains complicated theories and cites the body of science that refers to them.  He eschews political takes and even economics mostly. 

So - I needed to understand, so I learned.  I used the videos to link to the actual research which I was able to understand with my statistics background but I didn't need to.  I recommend you watch the entire series to get a sense of how much bullshitting is happening out there.

2. Where are you getting this assertion, which you have now repeated ?  And didn't you already acknowledge that the predictions are accurate and say that you weren't impressed ?  Why are you being stubborn on this ? 

3. The amount of work that goes into these models, by an army of educated brilliant people is a great human achievement in the field of science.  You, Peterson and Rogan want to make it sound like child's play and I am at a loss as to why.

4. I already explained that there are really TWO significant factors in climate prediction: solar radiation and atmosphere.  There are other variables but they are not nearly as significant.  Do you understand this ?

5. But they are actually pretty accurate and for our purposes - if they are off by a few % it won't matter if the trend is upwards

Online Michael Hardner

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #350 on: January 28, 2022, 06:49:05 am »
Only a complete moron would accept modelling predictions for 80 years from now.  These models are based on existing technology and can’t account for any advances over the next 8 decades.  These predictions are completely worthless.

Well you can say they're based on 'technology' if you include practices and methodologies as 'technology'.  Some of the early research was done with the 'technology' of a pencil and paper, and the methodology known as linear regression.

But it doesn't matter, if you notice that the number of people who were saying "there's no warming" ten years ago has dribbled down to nothing.  Go back and look at those arguments... what was wrong ?  It was that they were saying there were conspiracies and that the data was incorrect and that the methods were unverified.

If we continue to discuss what is happening with climate, I would think that those three arguments at least are out of consideration.

It seems to me we're finally at the point of discussing economic impacts.

Offline Black Dog

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #351 on: January 28, 2022, 01:03:27 pm »
Predicting the climate 15 years into the future by drawing a line that continues in the exact same trajectory as the previous 35 years isn't very impressive. If they can tell me the temp in 80 years i'll be impressed. If they can accurately predict what things like GHG released from thawing tundra and melted ice caps will do i'll be impressed.

I mean, climate scientists have been roasting Benzo Boy for his claims all week, but what would they know about climate modelling that an ex-psychologist wouldn't?
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #352 on: January 28, 2022, 01:07:08 pm »
Only a complete moron would accept modelling predictions for 80 years from now.  These models are based on existing technology and can’t account for any advances over the next 8 decades.  These predictions are completely worthless.

Every day I log into this site and every day I see you saying something more deeply and catastrophically stupid than you said the day before. The idea that climate modelling should account for as yet non-existent technological advances (why not assume we get visited by space aliens who eat atmospheric CO2 while we're at it?) to have any value is the winner for today.
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #353 on: January 28, 2022, 02:43:07 pm »
Every day I log into this site and every day I see you saying something more deeply and catastrophically stupid than you said the day before. The idea that climate modelling should account for as yet non-existent technological advances (why not assume we get visited by space aliens who eat atmospheric CO2 while we're at it?) to have any value is the winner for today.

Stupidity or trolling would explain it. 

Then there’s people like @Nipples Von Graham who believe what Petersen says over what the climate scientists at NASA are saying in their review of climate models. 

It’s astronomically stupid to believe a crackpot claiming things because of how his politics line up over those who are actually researching the issue using science.  It’s actually hard for me to wrap my head around someone who could be that ignorant.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 03:00:33 pm by Squidward von Squidderson »
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #354 on: February 03, 2022, 04:00:51 pm »
New Addams family reboot looks terrible.

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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #355 on: February 03, 2022, 04:16:23 pm »
New Addams family reboot looks terrible.



When are these two climate scientists going to publish their scientific findings debunking climate change?
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Online Michael Hardner

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #356 on: February 03, 2022, 04:19:02 pm »
Listening to some other clips from JP on that show...

Talking about the Bible ...

U of T should be embarrassed they had him, he is a failure as an academic

And I am still annoyed that we were on the crest of having the return of the public intellectual... and it turned out to be this fried egg sandwich...
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #357 on: February 03, 2022, 04:36:01 pm »
When are these two climate scientists going to publish their scientific findings debunking climate change?

Right after they finish their 7:30 ventriloquism set at the Ha Ha Hut in Topkea.

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #358 on: February 03, 2022, 05:28:27 pm »
Jordan and Black Dog having a discussion.

"Nipples is one of the great minds of our time!" - Bubbermiley
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Offline Spike The Hike Shady

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Re: How about a Discussion on Jordan Peterson?
« Reply #359 on: February 03, 2022, 05:31:37 pm »
Listening to some other clips from JP on that show...

Talking about the Bible ...

U of T should be embarrassed they had him, he is a failure as an academic

And I am still annoyed that we were on the crest of having the return of the public intellectual... and it turned out to be this fried egg sandwich...
He’s a clinical psychologist.  What does his views on the bible or climate change have anything to do with his ability in his profession?  Answer: nothing.

Pro tip to you Peterson fanatics.  If you don’t like him, don’t listen to him.  Try that, you might like it.  I do it with people like Don Lemon every night.