Author Topic: Economics Culture  (Read 1182 times)

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Offline wilber

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #135 on: March 12, 2020, 04:00:02 pm »
I feel like the coronavirus pandemic will have economic impact that we are going to dealing with for years to come, like the 2007 meltdown.

 -k

Could be worse. Higher debt levels and lower interest rates means consumers and governments have less room to move than in 2008.

BTW, how did the jury thing work out?
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline kimmy

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #136 on: March 12, 2020, 04:19:26 pm »
Follow my analogy.  The point is that growth is not synonymous with 'consumer more material from the earth'.

Amazon is growing while they reduce packaging size....

People think stuff like that matters. In the big picture, it doesn't.  Using less cardboard per package is pretty meaningless when the number of packages they ship has increased exponentially.

Ultimately what we need is for our population to stop growing.  I'm doing my part. :p

 -k
Quarantined for your safety.

Offline kimmy

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #137 on: March 12, 2020, 04:22:30 pm »
BTW, how did the jury thing work out?

They excused me. It was really easy, their website has a section where you can ask to be excused.  I explained my situation, gave them my boss's phone number in case they wanted to check, and they excused me within 2 hours.

 -k
Quarantined for your safety.
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Offline Spectre of Graham

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #138 on: March 12, 2020, 05:21:22 pm »
Right then, you carry on investing in the oil business. I'm heading out to gas up my car as the price of the product continues to nose dive.

You burn oil?  You're part of the problem.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.
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Offline Spectre of Graham

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #139 on: March 24, 2020, 11:17:22 am »
I've consistently been making the argument for the last few years that instead of running 20 billion deficits during good economic times of record low unemployment, our government should have been at least running balanced budgets if not small surpluses and save that deficit money in order to put Canada in a better position to respond to the next economic downturn.

Graham has been proven right.  It sure would be nice to have those 80 billion back the Trudeau gov already spent to add to the stimulus and recovery measures the government has needed to put in place because of COVID-19.  We'd have more room to expand debt-to-gdp and keep it at a reasonable level.

Always listen to Graham.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.
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Offline waldo

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #140 on: March 24, 2020, 11:36:54 am »
for some time, the waldo has been HarperingOn about lost GST federal revenue: again, per the PBO, every percentage point of GST is worth about $7-Billion a year; accordingly, Harper Conservatives's 2-point GST cut in 2013 has cost a loss of, CONSERVATIVELY, $84 Billion to federal coffers!

in terms of Canada being in a better position to respond to this coming COVID-19 economic downturn, the waldo has been proven right. It sure would be nice to have that foregone $84 Billion back to add to the stimulus and recovery measures the government has needed to put in place because of COVID-19.  We'd have more room to expand debt-to-gdp and keep it at a reasonable level.

always listen to the waldo
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Offline Spectre of Graham

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #141 on: March 24, 2020, 12:03:20 pm »
for some time, the waldo has been HarperingOn about lost GST federal revenue: again, per the PBO, every percentage point of GST is worth about $7-Billion a year; accordingly, Harper Conservatives's 2-point GST cut in 2013 has cost a loss of, CONSERVATIVELY, $84 Billion to federal coffers!

in terms of Canada being in a better position to respond to this coming COVID-19 economic downturn, the waldo has been proven right. It sure would be nice to have that foregone $84 Billion back to add to the stimulus and recovery measures the government has needed to put in place because of COVID-19.  We'd have more room to expand debt-to-gdp and keep it at a reasonable level.

always listen to the waldo

The GST could have been raised again, the majority Trudeau gov had 4 years to do it.  They had total control over taxation and spending.

I wouldn't be thrilled but I'd support a tax raise before i'd support not paying for our "good times" spending
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.

Offline wilber

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #142 on: March 24, 2020, 12:53:42 pm »
The GST could have been raised again, the majority Trudeau gov had 4 years to do it.  They had total control over taxation and spending.

I wouldn't be thrilled but I'd support a tax raise before i'd support not paying for our "good times" spending

You assume the government wouldn't spend every penny of it on increased program spending that couldn't be sustained in a down turn. I sure don't.

You need a mind set in government that believes part of investing in the future is not increasing debt and spending obligations when the economy is doing well, so it can react more strongly when it isn't.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline wilber

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #143 on: March 27, 2020, 02:57:36 pm »
Something for debt to GDP'ers to think about. A worst case 25% drop in GDP (1.7T to 1.28T) combined with a 16% increase in debt (712B to 824B) will increase the debt to GDP ratio to 64% in a single year. Plus added borrowing as the economy tries to recover.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-pandemic-pbo-report-1.5512062
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline the_squid

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #144 on: March 27, 2020, 03:04:18 pm »
Something for debt to GDP'ers to think about. A worst case 25% drop in GDP (1.7T to 1.28T) combined with a 16% increase in debt (712B to 824B) will increase the debt to GDP ratio to 64% in a single year. Plus added borrowing as the economy tries to recover.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-pandemic-pbo-report-1.5512062

No one claimed that COVID is good for the economy or that there won’t be real hardships because of it.

Offline wilber

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #145 on: March 27, 2020, 03:27:00 pm »
No one claimed that COVID is good for the economy or that there won’t be real hardships because of it.

It's a lesson in how fast debt to GDP forecasts can go to hell in hand basket.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline MH

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #146 on: March 27, 2020, 03:29:01 pm »
It's a lesson in how fast debt to GDP forecasts can go to hell in hand basket.

Agreed - but it doesn't discredit the practice of using debt:GDP as a metric...

Offline wilber

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #147 on: March 27, 2020, 03:47:17 pm »
Agreed - but it doesn't discredit the practice of using debt:GDP as a metric...

It discredits the idea that you can count on ever increasing GDP to justify continued borrowing in good times.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline Spectre of Graham

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #148 on: March 27, 2020, 04:46:55 pm »
Something for debt to GDP'ers to think about. A worst case 25% drop in GDP (1.7T to 1.28T) combined with a 16% increase in debt (712B to 824B) will increase the debt to GDP ratio to 64% in a single year. Plus added borrowing as the economy tries to recover.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-pandemic-pbo-report-1.5512062

During the roughest time of the recession our deficit was 55 billion in 2009, 33 billion in 2010, and 26 billion in 2011.

We've been running a deficit of 20 billion a year in recent years with record low unemployment.

Who knows what our deficit will be by the end of this year due to the virus & needed cash injection/stimulus.  EI claims are skyrocketing (increasing gov expenditures) and revenues from income taxes, sales tax etc. (gov revenues) will tank.  This is far, far worse than the 2008 recession for Canada, and we don't have our oil industry and high oil prices to get us through this like before.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.
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Offline Spectre of Graham

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Re: Economics Culture
« Reply #149 on: March 27, 2020, 05:03:51 pm »
It's a lesson in how fast debt to GDP forecasts can go to hell in hand basket.

They'll never admit it, but we were right.  They don't have to acknowledge it, the numbers speaks for themselves.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.
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