Author Topic: The Trudeau Brand  (Read 91034 times)

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Offline JMT

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1080 on: January 24, 2021, 07:37:58 pm »
European governments directly compensated the employees who were laid off.

Both things were done, just as was the case here. The CEWS was modeled after a program in Denmark, I believe, and was an ask from the Conservatives.

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And the criteria is still revenue based, even for current periods all the way into this summer.  https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/subsidy/emergency-wage-subsidy/cews-what-changes.html

So many ways to abuse it while restaurants and bars close their doors forever.  The whole thing is a giant heap of bullshit.

The criteria is revenue for a reason. You can be profitable with far less revenue, but that doesn't mean that you keep your employees. If I lose revenue, the first thing I'm going to do is lay people off rather than lose profit or cut my own salary.

CEWS was designed so that people were not only paid, but so that they could go back to the same jobs later. None of it is perfect. CERB wasn't perfect, CEWS isn't perfect, CRB isn't perfect, and EI isn't perfect. That said, all of them together kept the economy from going over a cliff, and they will put it on a reasonable footing going forward.

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1081 on: January 24, 2021, 07:43:18 pm »
Both things were done, just as was the case here. The CEWS was modeled after a program in Denmark, I believe, and was an ask from the Conservatives.

The criteria is revenue for a reason. You can be profitable with far less revenue, but that doesn't mean that you keep your employees. If I lose revenue, the first thing I'm going to do is lay people off rather than lose profit or cut my own salary.

CEWS was designed so that people were not only paid, but so that they could go back to the same jobs later. None of it is perfect. CERB wasn't perfect, CEWS isn't perfect, CRB isn't perfect, and EI isn't perfect. That said, all of them together kept the economy from going over a cliff, and they will put it on a reasonable footing going forward.

Do you  honestly not see a problem with giving money to companies who are not doing well even if their business performance has zero to do with COVID? 

CERB gets such a bad rap for people abusing it and why would people want to work if they can sit around collecting 2k/month (as if that's enough to live on) but you don't think companies try to recognize their revenue in the most expedient way?

At least CERB needs a proper ROE, businesses are creating their own methods of meeting the criteria. 

Lastly, I absolutely think compensating people is better than businesses.  It helps the businesses but doesn't just push cash in the hands of shareholders.
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Online wilber

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1082 on: January 24, 2021, 07:46:29 pm »
That won't happen. If both airlines ceased to exist tomorrow, another one would take their place. Of course, the government would nationalize Air Canada before that ever happened. Both airlines were offered money, with conditions. Both declined.

Really, who would start an airline now? A narrow body Airbus or Boeing costs over 100 million. Wide long range wide body aircraft over 300 million each. Both airlines have not been offered money. Show me a link that says they have been offered money. Yes they took the CEWS money to pay their employees and when it ran out, they laid a bunch off.

The government could nationalize Air Canada but they would have to compensate share holders and the taxpayer would be 100% on the hook for any losses.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 07:49:50 pm by wilber »
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1083 on: January 24, 2021, 08:20:26 pm »
Oh, and one last bit on this. The airlines were offered bailouts, with equity stakes, to ensure the money was used as intended. They balked. The want string free money. After what some companies did with CEWS and some provinces did with their federal COVID funding (Doug Ford has $12B in a sock), they aren't getting string free money.

Not spending on COVID will cost lives...  but at least Ford can say he didn’t have a big deficit!!  What a scumbag.

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The Ontario budget says that if the money remains unspent in the reserves by the end of the fiscal year it will be used to reduce the deficit and provincial debt.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fao-report-unspent-pandemic-reserves-1.5832527
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Offline JMT

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1084 on: January 24, 2021, 09:05:48 pm »
Lastly, I absolutely think compensating people is better than businesses.  It helps the businesses but doesn't just push cash in the hands of shareholders.

I think there's no perfect solution. Ideally, yes, people first, but there has to be a balance. Keeping people on payroll is still seen by many as what should have been done in the first place. Others, like yourself, disagree. I'm still convinced that both was the only way, given the timelines involved.

Offline JMT

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1085 on: January 24, 2021, 09:17:39 pm »
Really, who would start an airline now? A narrow body Airbus or Boeing costs over 100 million. Wide long range wide body aircraft over 300 million each. Both airlines have not been offered money. Show me a link that says they have been offered money. Yes they took the CEWS money to pay their employees and when it ran out, they laid a bunch off.

CEWS hasn't runout.

Everything I hear says that Canada is requiring things that the airlines don't want to provide for a bailout (equity). Note that no other sector has had a sector specific bailout since the beginning of this.

« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 09:20:55 pm by JMT »

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1086 on: January 24, 2021, 10:44:24 pm »
I think there's no perfect solution. Ideally, yes, people first, but there has to be a balance. Keeping people on payroll is still seen by many as what should have been done in the first place. Others, like yourself, disagree. I'm still convinced that both was the only way, given the timelines involved.

Sure, maybe it WAS the only way spring of 2020 when everyone was panicking, but things have picked up back to normal in all industries other than hospitality/tourism. 

To continue from summer 2020 to summer 2021 with the same revenue reduction method is nothing short of folly.  They have had plenty of time now to tweak things, put systems in place and provide a safety net to companies who are actually impacted.

« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 10:47:22 pm by BC_cheque »
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Offline msj

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1087 on: January 24, 2021, 10:52:25 pm »
I have filed CEWS/CERB/TWS for dozens of people and businesses.

Even a CEBA loan for two clients.

Systems aren’t perfect, but I’d rather give businesses a chance to keep people employed and maintain jobs than let people sit idle earning $2k/m doing sweet bugger all at home.

Perfection is the enemy of good so I can understand why we have used all of these policies to support a variety of Canadians who fall under different circumstances.

Fraud under any and all of the programs is not hard but speedy support has been more important and people forget that as they apply hindsight bias to specific circumstances.

Some of the fraud will be caught soon and some never. That’s life.
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Offline msj

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1088 on: January 24, 2021, 11:03:24 pm »

To continue from summer 2020 to summer 2021 with the same revenue reduction method is nothing short of folly.  They have had plenty of time now to tweak things, put systems in place and provide a safety net to companies who are actually impacted.

But it is not the same revenue reduction rules in place now is it?

And, more importantly, the subsidy is not as much as back in the summer of 2020 now is it?



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Offline JMT

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1089 on: January 24, 2021, 11:04:21 pm »
I have filed CEWS/CERB/TWS for dozens of people and businesses.

Even a CEBA loan for two clients.

Systems aren’t perfect, but I’d rather give businesses a chance to keep people employed and maintain jobs than let people sit idle earning $2k/m doing sweet bugger all at home.

Perfection is the enemy of good so I can understand why we have used all of these policies to support a variety of Canadians who fall under different circumstances.

Fraud under any and all of the programs is not hard but speedy support has been more important and people forget that as they apply hindsight bias to specific circumstances.

Some of the fraud will be caught soon and some never. That’s life.

Wow - hello stranger.

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1090 on: January 25, 2021, 12:06:48 am »
I have filed CEWS/CERB/TWS for dozens of people and businesses.

Even a CEBA loan for two clients.

Systems aren’t perfect, but I’d rather give businesses a chance to keep people employed and maintain jobs than let people sit idle earning $2k/m doing sweet bugger all at home.

Perfection is the enemy of good so I can understand why we have used all of these policies to support a variety of Canadians who fall under different circumstances.

Fraud under any and all of the programs is not hard but speedy support has been more important and people forget that as they apply hindsight bias to specific circumstances.

Some of the fraud will be caught soon and some never. That’s life.

It's NOT fraud though.  You're walking in late but if you refer to previous pages, I mentioned that it's perfectly legal for profitable companies to take the money just because they're having a less than stellar year.

The methodology of revenue drop is flawed.  First, there is no governance and revenue recognition methods can be manipulated. 

Second, businesses that have not been impacted are getting free money while companies like hospitality and tourism are going under anyway because labour isn't material.

I will concede that initially there was no time and they needed something simple but to continue it now makes no sense.. 
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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1091 on: January 25, 2021, 12:07:20 am »
But it is not the same revenue reduction rules in place now is it?

And, more importantly, the subsidy is not as much as back in the summer of 2020 now is it?

Methodology is the same. 
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Offline msj

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1092 on: January 25, 2021, 12:20:09 am »
I suggest you look at the actual rules.

Fraud is easy for any of these programs: cash based revenue does not get recorded for example.

I have one client who has suggested that he gets the CRB by putting income on his 2020 tax return for a business he is all of a sudden doing (and I thought he was retired). So long as he keeps his income below $38k there is no clawback on that program.

I don’t know if he is actually doing business or not but he would benefit if he were to do this as I ran some numbers out of my own curiosity. 

As for CEWS, yes, do check on how periods 1 to 4 differ from 5 to 10 from 11 to 13 as it is interesting.

Also, there are rules as to how to count the revenue for everything from for profit biz to non-profit charity - those NFP’s can ignore government revenue, isn’t that nice!

Again, check the rules.

ETA: handy website showing some of the changes over the periods.  https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/subsidy/emergency-wage-subsidy/cews-what-changes.html
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 12:29:08 am by msj »
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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1093 on: January 25, 2021, 12:39:34 am »
I suggest you look at the actual rules.

Fraud is easy for any of these programs: cash based revenue does not get recorded for example.

I have one client who has suggested that he gets the CRB by putting income on his 2020 tax return for a business he is all of a sudden doing (and I thought he was retired). So long as he keeps his income below $38k there is no clawback on that program.

I don’t know if he is actually doing business or not but he would benefit if he were to do this as I ran some numbers out of my own curiosity. 

As for CEWS, yes, do check on how periods 1 to 4 differ from 5 to 10 from 11 to 13 as it is interesting.

Also, there are rules as to how to count the revenue for everything from for profit biz to non-profit charity - those NFP’s can ignore government revenue, isn’t that nice!

Again, check the rules.

I am quite familiar with the changes, I have filed for every period since inception and know the calculations they use.

I'm critical of using revenue reduction *as a method*.  It doesn't make sense to just give free money to companies whether or not COVID has impacted them.

It makes more sense to be industry specific.  We've had more than six months to fine tune the program.

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Offline msj

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Re: The Trudeau Brand
« Reply #1094 on: January 25, 2021, 01:00:46 am »
That is reasonable, however, why should hospitality/tourism/airlines/cruises get anything?

Or why should they not get everything?

What rules will decide?

If the business shuts down should it get something or get nothing or in-between?

That’s a hecka lot more complicated rules with politicians picking winners/losers based on who knows what “logic.”

Of course, many businesses had no revenue drops or brief ones and have only got CEWS for 2 periods or so.

Big deal, my business got no CEWS at all while I have filed CEWS for some clients into the hundreds of thousands.

I’m not going to sweat it whether or not this is fair or just. It is keeping people employed and out of trouble which is the goal of these programs. Otherwise Canadians will turn into the Dutch burning bicycles and running from tear gas canisters like they did last night.

Sometimes programs are about more than what the government lets on.
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