If Brown or Charest manage to win, they would likely oust Trudeau.
Any of the other nutbars, and Trudeau wins.
Maybe, maybe not.
In Canada's political system (with first-past-the-post, and urban-vs-rural voting patterns) I can certainly envision a scenario where someone like Poilievre manages to win (even if its just a minority government). It would probably require Liberal support completely collapsing in the west (certainly not unheard of... remember the days of Trudeau Sr., where at the end he had no seats west of Manitoba) and non-urban areas of Ontario going conservative.
Not that I'm saying I WANT Poilievre to win. I would certainly never vote for him (and I have regularly voted conservative in the past).
Overall, not a great collection of candidates. A group who are either covidiots (Poilievre, Baber), anti-abortion religious nutjobs (Lewis), have troubling scandals in his past (Brown), have questionable plans to address climate change (Aitchsison), or are warmed-over Liberals (Charest). I don't expect perfection, but what happened to the idea of having a decent, principled conservative leader who wasn't a wingnut?