Charest was favoured amongst all Canadians while Poilievre was favoured amongst conservatives. It’s unfathomable to me why the party chose him.
I mean I get that he represents their ideals but when he doesn’t resonate with the rest of the country why not try to get the fascist dictator <eye roll> out of office?
Probably 40+% of Canadians would not vote CPC regardless of who they chose as leader. There's little doubt that committed LPC and NDP voters would have preferred Charest to Poilievre, but so what? Choosing a leader that's popular with people who wouldn't vote for you anyway isn't a recipe for success.
There's two kinds of votes who are actually in play.
1) undecided centrist voters who might be persuaded to vote CPC
2) right wing voters who might vote PPC if the party moved to the center.
With regard to group (2) I think clearly Poilievre keeps more CPC voters from migrating to the PPC, and probably brings some PPC voters back to the CPC. I don't know how many votes we're actually talking about there. With PPC typically polling around 5%, clearly not a lot. I do think there is some small number of ridings where vote splitting between PPC and CPC could be a factor, but it's probably not a big difference maker.
With regard to group (1), I think there is obviously a much larger number of voters available there, but I'm skeptical as to whether Charest would make a difference there. I honestly just don't think Charest matters in 2022. I just don't think anybody gives a
**** about Charest anymore. Ultimately I think that the election doesn't ride on Trudeau or Poilievre as much as it rides on the economy. If the economy recovers and people are not feeling as squeezed financially by the time we vote next, I think the Liberals will win. If people are still feeling financially squeezed when we vote next, I think the CPC wins. I think that's what it really comes down to.
-k