If Conservatives are tied, they're winning the general by 2-3 points, imho. It's not enough to be tied. It's not enough to be ahead by 2-3 points. The liberals need at least a 4-5 point lead to be secure.
The biggest problem for the Liberals is this. The polls are a general distribution of votes--it's the national popular vote. That's not how elections are won. Elections are won based on 338 local votes and right now that's a huge problem for Trudeau.
Why? Because he's losing A LOT of seats in the Maritime Provinces, where they had a clean sweep last election. The first thing you're going to see on election night is New Brunswick falling to the Conservatives, after which the Liberals need to play catch up.
Where are they going to get those seats?
The best chance they have right now is Ontario (since Doug Ford is trash), but that means they're going to have to flip some NDP ridings, as well as Conservative. Meanwhile, NDP voters aren't fleeing to the Liberals; they're shifting to the Greens.
I just don't see where the seats are going to flip in favour of the Liberals here. New Brunswick is going to end up deciding this election and right now that's to Scheer's benefit.