Author Topic: Government Day-to-Day  (Read 13160 times)

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Offline wilber

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #615 on: September 06, 2020, 02:17:30 pm »
A great piece by economist Mike Moffatt today in Medium:

https://medium.com/@MikePMoffatt/interest-on-federal-debt-the-double-whammy-hypothesis-and-putting-my-money-where-my-mouth-is-584a9aeab326
Iím supposed to be impressed by a $100 wager? If he is wrong, his $100 wonít be worth much anyway.
I would be a lot more impressed if he said he was putting a few 100K of his own money into 10 year government bonds at O.5%
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 02:19:46 pm by wilber »
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Offline JMT

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #616 on: September 06, 2020, 02:37:36 pm »
Iím supposed to be impressed by a $100 wager? If he is wrong, his $100 wonít be worth much anyway.
I would be a lot more impressed if he said he was putting a few 100K of his own money into 10 year government bonds at O.5%

Point out where he's wrong. This is our current debt service level:

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Offline wilber

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #617 on: September 06, 2020, 02:40:36 pm »
If you invest $100 K in a ten year government bond at 0.5 % that has your interest taxed at 25% and inflation averages 2%, after 10 years, your 100K will have been been worth less than 85K. Does that sound like a good investment?
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline JMT

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #618 on: September 06, 2020, 02:43:03 pm »
If you invest $100 K in a ten year government bond at 0.5 % that has your interest taxed at 25% and inflation averages 2%, after 10 years, your 100K will have been been worth less than 85K. Does that sound like a good investment?

You know institutions have have been buying them at these low rates for a long time, right? Right now, central banks are buying bonds themselves in many cases as part of their policy goals. These aren't really for personal investment.

Offline JMT

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Offline wilber

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #620 on: September 06, 2020, 09:18:30 pm »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-four-reasons-why-investors-buy-negative-yielding-bonds-2019-08-21

All of them are speculative plays, no different from investing in the stock markets only with less potential upside.

What is actually happening with these huge deficits is central banks are loaning to governments at artificially low interest rates. In other words, printing money.

I'm still waiting to hear if that expert is putting his own money into 10 year government bonds.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline wilber

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #621 on: September 06, 2020, 09:21:28 pm »
Point out where he's wrong. This is our current debt service level:

In the seventies that level was below 2% and the same justification was used to borrow more and by the nineties it was over 6%. You believe that can never happen again. I don't.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 09:23:29 pm by wilber »
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Offline JMT

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #622 on: September 07, 2020, 12:24:23 pm »

In the seventies that level was below 2% and the same justification was used to borrow more and by the nineties it was over 6%. You believe that can never happen again. I don't.

I believe it's possible. I also understand the context under which Canada's large deficits will be happening. Everyone who isn't Norway is doing this.

Offline MH

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #623 on: September 09, 2020, 11:42:32 am »
OPPO's fall political preview.  Interesting points to me:

https://www.canadalandshow.com/podcast/71-fall-political-preview/

Prediction of no fall election
Assessment that O'Toole will soon drive hard to the centre

Offline waldo

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #624 on: September 09, 2020, 12:49:28 pm »
OPPO

before the waldo would even consider listening... does that azzhole 'Jesse Brown' have anything to do with OPPO - directly (as a part of the podcast) or indirectly by way of editing/tailoring what's discussed/presented?

Offline MH

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #625 on: September 09, 2020, 01:09:16 pm »
before the waldo would even consider listening... does that azzhole 'Jesse Brown' have anything to do with OPPO - directly (as a part of the podcast) or indirectly by way of editing/tailoring what's discussed/presented?

He doesn't have a hand in the contest AFAIK.

Does it really take one bad story for you to bear such a grudge against a news outlet though ?  Do you spit on the ground when you see the Globe and Mail newspaper box ?

Offline waldo

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #626 on: September 09, 2020, 01:11:52 pm »
He doesn't have a hand in the contest AFAIK.

Does it really take one bad story for you to bear such a grudge against a news outlet though ?  Do you spit on the ground when you see the Globe and Mail newspaper box ?

hardly ONE bad story! Separating out what the azzhole Brown has done vis-a-via WE, that allowed the waldo to gain understanding/perspective on just what other shyte that azzhole has been engaged in!
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #627 on: September 09, 2020, 11:54:38 pm »
All the articles i've read state mr Trudeau will be introducing quite the spendy mcspendster of a spending plan during and/or following the Throne Speech, complete with lots of green initiates.  I can see why Morneau and him butted heads.

And now we have O'Toole with his new "Canada First" slogan.  Quite the decision to borrow a slogan from the most hated politician among Canadians (Justin Trudeau a close second!).
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #628 on: September 09, 2020, 11:57:29 pm »
All of them are speculative plays, no different from investing in the stock markets only with less potential upside.

What is actually happening with these huge deficits is central banks are loaning to governments at artificially low interest rates. In other words, printing money.

I'm still waiting to hear if that expert is putting his own money into 10 year government bonds.

Don't worry we can print money because we can create money on a computer with just a keystroke.  Money grows on trees now and we all ride magical unicorns over candy rainbows.  Cue John Lennon's "Imagine".
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.
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Offline JMT

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Re: Government Day-to-Day
« Reply #629 on: September 10, 2020, 09:55:56 am »
All the articles i've read state mr Trudeau will be introducing quite the spendy mcspendster of a spending plan during and/or following the Throne Speech, complete with lots of green initiates.  I can see why Morneau and him butted heads.

Europe is planning to spend the equivalent of Canada spending $100B over the next 5 years for future investment. We risk being left behind in a quickly changing economy if we don't spend.