Author Topic: Electric vehicles  (Read 270 times)

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Offline the_squid

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2019, 06:02:19 pm »
True, but even more important many people are looking at total cost of ownership instead of just ticket price. Electric vehicles save considerable on "fuel" and maintenance.

Obviously, true on fuel...  maintenance?  Not so sure you'll save money if after a number of years (who knows how many) you'll need to replace the batteries for $5k-ish...    that's equivalent to a lot of ongoing maintenance.
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Offline ?Impact

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #31 on: November 13, 2019, 06:12:39 pm »
Obviously, true on fuel...  maintenance?  Not so sure you'll save money if after a number of years (who knows how many) you'll need to replace the batteries for $5k-ish...    that's equivalent to a lot of ongoing maintenance.

Yes, if batteries need to be replaced then there is a big cost. The question is will they need to be replaced during the lifetime of the car. Would an internal combustion engine need to be replaced or rebuilt after that number of miles? The battery technology is getting better all the time, and some companies are even looking at a resale market for old batteries like homes and datacenters where the weight for given capacity is not a significant factor.

It would be interesting to get real world comparison on maintenance as many things related to engine and transmission will be almost zero, but others related to tires, chassis, and body would be similar. Total maintenance bill over the expected lifetime of batteries I think leaves a lot of room, but it is the difference that is important.

Offline wilber

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2019, 06:20:45 pm »
Replacing an engine and transmission could be as much as a battery depending on the car. Todays ICE's go 300,000 km pretty regularly so a battery would have to be comparable. Charge cycles seem to be more of a limiting factor than KM's when it comes to battery life. I guess that would also depend on how many charge cycles were from a low state of charge vs just topping up.
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Offline ?Impact

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #33 on: November 13, 2019, 06:26:29 pm »
Todays ICE's go 300,000 km pretty regularly so a battery would have to be comparable.

Not sure where they are now, but the target is a million miles which is 6 times the 300,000 km. The article doesn't say the current level, but does say that the target is more than twice the current level. Note that 500,000 miles is 900,000 km.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 06:28:10 pm by ?Impact »

Offline wilber

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2019, 06:41:43 pm »
Not sure where they are now, but the target is a million miles which is 6 times the 300,000 km. The article doesn't say the current level, but does say that the target is more than twice the current level. Note that 500,000 miles is 900,000 km.

Targets are nice but they don't mean much until they are met. I'm not out to dis EV's, they have many attractions but also a downside. I just don't think they are quite where their cheerleaders say they are. At least, not yet.

On my bucket list is a road trip. Drive the full length of Vancouver Island then take the ferry to Prince Rupert then Haida Gwaii, back to Rupert then back home via Pemberton and Whistler with maybe side trips to Barkerville and Bella Coola . This is not a trip I would attempt in an EV at this time, even though it might be possible.
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Offline Boges

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #35 on: November 14, 2019, 08:30:17 am »
yes, its true... many/most EVs are very expensive. (Although I think you're wrong about the cost of a full EV... for example, the Tesla 3 is an all electric vehicle that is expected to cost ~$35,000 Canadian, not "North of $40,000".) And as I pointed out, the Hyundai Ioniq is not "$30-40,000", it is ~$25,000.

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

But, consider this: There has been a general shift away from small cars/sedans into larger vehicles (such as SUVs and trucks) over the past decade. It has gotten to the point where some car manufacturers (such as Ford) will no longer be selling sedans in the north american market. And bigger vehicles cost more. While the cheapest SUV I could find was around ~$20,000, most were in the $25,000 range or more, with many costing over $30,000. Supposedly the best selling SUV right now in Canada is the Honda CR-V, with a suggested retail price of over $28,000.)

So your 'average commuter' doesn't seem to be as interested in going cheap as they were in the past. They seem to be willing to spend money. If you compare the cost of hybrid/electric vehicles with what people are actually buying (as compared to what they could buy), the prices are really not that far out of line.

Now, does that mean people will rush out and buy electric vehicles and hybrids? No, because when it comes to vehicles, people are prone to making bad decisions. They buy big vehicles when small one might have suited their needs, and then grumble over the price of gas, or the cost of maintenance. They pay more attention to initial sales rather than long term costs. Electric vehicles do have barriers to widespread adoption, but much of that has nothing to do with price.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/small-cars-trucks-suvs-1.4644725

https://driving.ca/bodystyle/suvThe Hyundai Ioniq currently has a 0% financing deal with Hyundai.
Kia offers an 8 year warranty on EV components (more than its 5 year powertrain warranty on their other cars).
And the financing available on the Honda Accord Hybrid is 2.99%, which is lower than the financing on there Accord LX (4.99%).

So yes, dealers do sometimes offer incentives on EV and hybrids, that are comparable to the incentives offered on traditional vehicles.

And of course there are also things like government incentives.Yes, some electric vehicle manufacturers (such as Tesla) have trouble meeting demand for orders. But not all manufacturers have the same problem.

Just checked. The Hybrid is offered at 0%. Nothing said about the PHEV or the EV versions.

Hybrids are affordable and a nice fuel saving alternative. I have one, and it's great.

But you are still need gas to run them.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2019, 01:04:29 pm »
Obviously, true on fuel...  maintenance?  Not so sure you'll save money if after a number of years (who knows how many) you'll need to replace the batteries for $5k-ish...    that's equivalent to a lot of ongoing maintenance.
Yes, battery replacement is expensive. (Supposedly the battery life of the Tesla 3 is supposed to be over 300,000, which is longer than most of us would usually keep our cars. I had my last car for around 200,000km.)

But, lets say you had some bad luck, and in the 10 years you have an electric car you have to replace the battery once. That's $5,000.

Lets compare that to your standard internal combustion engine:

I usually need an oil change (costing around $50) around 3 times a year. Total cost over 10 years: $1500
On my old car I needed to get my timing belt replaced after around 100,000 km. Cost: ~$1000.
Its recommended that you do a transmission flush (cost: ~$300) every ~20-30,000 km.. If you keep your car 10 years and put 200,000 km on, the cost will be: $1800.
Spark plugs should probably be replaced occasionally, at a cost of ~$100 (parts and labor). I've seen suggestions it be done every 20-30,000 miles. But lets be optimistic and say you replace them after 50,000. That's still 3-4 spark plug changes, for $300.
Every car has a battery, and usually people have to change it once in the life of the car. This will probably cost ~$200.

So, over 10 years, you are likely to spend $5000 on just the items I mentioned above.

Now, I did not include other costs, such as brake pad replacements, or things like replacing headlights/brake lights, doing alignments, etc. And my dealer regularly suggests doing things like fuel injector cleanings, but those are to some degree optional. I do recognize that electric cars will have similar associated costs. I tried to concentrate only on the elements of a car that were specific to gasoline engines.

https://interestingengineering.com/tesla-puts-price-on-model-3-battery-module-replacement-around-5000-7000

Overall? Electric motors tend to be simpler (with fewer moving parts). You have less need for a complex cooling system, lubrication systems, etc., and this overall tends to make them more reliable.
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Offline wilber

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2019, 01:44:25 pm »
Depends on the car.

My car requires oil changes once a year or 16,000 km. Transmission is lifetime lube. Spark plugs at 90,000 km or every six years and doesn't have a timing belt.
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Offline the_squid

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2019, 02:33:19 pm »
I wasn’t saying EVs will cost more in maintenance....   they maybe less...   but there will be one major maintenance item that may make them more on par with ICE maintenance.    And a hybrid will, potentially, have both those costs.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2019, 12:05:44 pm »
I wasn’t saying EVs will cost more in maintenance....   they maybe less...   but there will be one major maintenance item that may make them more on par with ICE maintenance.    And a hybrid will, potentially, have both those costs.
Yes, the gasoline engine on a hybrid will require maintenance. But because the engine shuts down when idling, meaning less wear on the engine (requiring fewer oil changes, etc.)

Its still possible that a hybrid or EV owner could buy a lemon, with a battery pack that dies after a couple of years, or a motor that explodes the minute its off warranty. But on average your maintenance costs should be less.

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/are-hybrid-maintenance-costs-higher.htm

Offline segnosaur

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2019, 12:08:45 pm »
Depends on the car.
Yes it does. My previous car (a Honda) could go 2000 more between oil changes than my Hyundai.
Quote
My car requires oil changes once a year or 16,000 km. Transmission is lifetime lube. Spark plugs at 90,000 km or every six years and doesn't have a timing belt.
Just out of curiosity, what type of car do you drive?

My estimates for the number of oil changes were based on cars that myself and friends have had, but they have been pretty standard commuter cars.

And its possible for a car to have a timing chain instead of a belt, which in theory lasts longer (but sometimes has both a higher initial cost, and runs a highter risk of catastrophic failure.)
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Offline the_squid

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #41 on: November 15, 2019, 01:35:32 pm »
Yes, the gasoline engine on a hybrid will require maintenance. But because the engine shuts down when idling, meaning less wear on the engine (requiring fewer oil changes, etc.)

Its still possible that a hybrid or EV owner could buy a lemon, with a battery pack that dies after a couple of years, or a motor that explodes the minute its off warranty. But on average your maintenance costs should be less.

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/are-hybrid-maintenance-costs-higher.htm

I've heard of 2 Priuses in a fleet needing battery replacements within 3 years (just out of warranty).  $3k each

But, they should have never been in this fleet.  They sat a lot, and they rarely did any city driving.  I don't think the batteries like all the sitting.  Also, since they weren't being driven in the city, the battery was rarely used...  it was just a gas car lugging around 300 pounds of batteries.  Not a good choice for this fleet. 

If you're the type to replace your car every 100,000km, then you probably have nothing to worry about with the batteries...  go longer than that and the chances go up a lot that you will need to shell out some coin for new batteries.    But, you may have saved that much, or more, in fuel.  All depends where and how you drive. 

I'm not looking forward to the EV era.  I drive vehicles with manual transmissions and I enjoy the experience of driving.  Used to track a previous car...   The old, dead, boring EVs don't appeal to me.  But I will change with the times....   some day.
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Offline wilber

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Re: Electric vehicles
« Reply #42 on: November 15, 2019, 06:42:05 pm »
Yes it does. My previous car (a Honda) could go 2000 more between oil changes than my Hyundai.Just out of curiosity, what type of car do you drive?

My estimates for the number of oil changes were based on cars that myself and friends have had, but they have been pretty standard commuter cars.

And its possible for a car to have a timing chain instead of a belt, which in theory lasts longer (but sometimes has both a higher initial cost, and runs a highter risk of catastrophic failure.)

Audi Q5 and yes it does have a timing chain. Whether it's a chain or belt when it fails, if you have an interference engine, valves will hit pistons and it will be very expensive. If you don't have an interference engine, it will just stop with no damage. Unlike belts, chains only have to be replaced when they stretch or start indicating wear. A stretched or worn chain will be noisy. These engines have variable valve timing so I imagine they will also start to run weird. On the other hand, belts are light weight and very quiet but have to be changed at regular intervals. Many racing and diesel engines use gear drives, which are very strong and precise but they are also noisy and can't be used with electronic fuel injection because their harmonics mess with knock sensors. The Cummins diesel in my truck uses gears.

From what I have heard about Hyundai requiring a different service interval for Canadian cars, I think they are gouging owners or looking for a way to deny warranty. There is no severe service schedule for my car and modern synthetic oils should go much longer between changes compared to the old dino oils. VW and Audi engines require particular European spec synthetic oils.

My car came with Audi Care so the first four years were covered. I just had the second service done on my own dime and I can't seem to get out of there for less than $400 but at least they wash and clean the car inside and out. When a big one comes along including plugs etc, I expect it will bight but I shouldn't need plugs for another 60K or so.  If I have a long service, I can schedule a courtesy car. Last year they were out of their regular loaners so they gave me an S5 Cabrio. Zoom zoom.
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