Author Topic: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus  (Read 1564 times)

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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #60 on: May 22, 2020, 09:10:03 pm »
\

Yes, if you print it. People can't lend if they don't have the money.

How does CPP and other pension plans stay funded if people are unemployed and not making contributions and how will they invest those non existent contributions in government bonds?

My God you have a myopic view of the future. 
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Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #61 on: May 22, 2020, 11:07:23 pm »
My God you have a myopic view of the future.

And  you have a Pollyannaish view.
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Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #62 on: May 23, 2020, 12:07:45 am »
BNN online poll

Quote
Do you agree with Stephen Poloz that economic worries are “overblown”?

Yes  1355
No   2996

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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #63 on: May 23, 2020, 08:16:36 am »
BNN online poll

Yes  1355
No   2996

Very scientific.
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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #64 on: May 23, 2020, 08:19:12 am »
And  you have a Pollyannaish view.

I have a realistic one:

Some commentators and opposition members of Parliament have raised concerns that this substantial increase in government spending and debt will place Canada in a precarious fiscal situation. In other words, they are concerned that federal finances will be unsustainable. We believe that these concerns are unwarranted, unless the federal government drastically changes the structure of its program spending in the post-COVID-19 era.

Before the current crisis, the federal government was running a modest budget deficit of about 1 per cent of GDP and a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 31 per cent. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the federal fiscal structure was sustainable in the long run with substantial fiscal room.

On April 30, the PBO presented a COVID-19 economic/fiscal scenario that showed a sharp drop in real economic activity of 12 per cent, a budget deficit of $252-billion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48 per cent in 2020.

Will such a sharp deterioration in federal finances make the fiscal structure unsustainable, leading the debt-to GDP ratio to rise continuously in the long run? Not likely.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-has-the-covid-19-pandemic-made-the-federal-governments-fiscal/

Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #65 on: May 23, 2020, 08:52:18 am »
I have a realistic one:

Some commentators and opposition members of Parliament have raised concerns that this substantial increase in government spending and debt will place Canada in a precarious fiscal situation. In other words, they are concerned that federal finances will be unsustainable. We believe that these concerns are unwarranted, unless the federal government drastically changes the structure of its program spending in the post-COVID-19 era.

Before the current crisis, the federal government was running a modest budget deficit of about 1 per cent of GDP and a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 31 per cent. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the federal fiscal structure was sustainable in the long run with substantial fiscal room.

On April 30, the PBO presented a COVID-19 economic/fiscal scenario that showed a sharp drop in real economic activity of 12 per cent, a budget deficit of $252-billion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48 per cent in 2020.

Will such a sharp deterioration in federal finances make the fiscal structure unsustainable, leading the debt-to GDP ratio to rise continuously in the long run? Not likely.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-has-the-covid-19-pandemic-made-the-federal-governments-fiscal/

Just another opinion piece. Your op ed is “realistic” and others are not, only because that is the one you choose to believe. We will just have to wait and see,.
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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #66 on: May 23, 2020, 09:56:27 am »
Yeah, and you don't even have opinions. Kevin Page was the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Offline eyeball

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #67 on: May 23, 2020, 10:04:06 am »
We'll see, but there will be consequences.
I'm sure there will be, the consequences of being precautionary in the short term however should make them more mitigable in the long term if history and past experience is anything to go by.

Quote
Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It

They had lower mortality rates from the influenza pandemic. But their economies also appeared to fare better.

“The pandemic itself is just so destructive to the economy, so any policy that you can use that directly mitigates the severity of the pandemic can actually be beneficial for the economy,” Mr. Verner said. Stricter interventions “actually make it safer for economic activity to resume, and they mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic itself on mortality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html

"Printing money" is a policy if nothing else. The consequences of that I suspect will be like social distancing where they're worsened or lessened according to timing. Countries that are eschewing printing money now and decreasing social distancing in the process may still have to print money in the future if they experience an ongoing high case rate and 2nd wave made worse by ending lockdowns and firing things up too early.  The consequence of that will make them less competitive with countries who manage to avoid that and can now stop printing money sooner causing them to grow and recover more quickly.  It's the like the V vs a U recovery but over years and perhaps decades instead of the shorter time frame we were hoping for.

Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #68 on: May 23, 2020, 11:25:57 am »
Yeah, and you don't even have opinions. Kevin Page was the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

It's still just an opinion.
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Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #69 on: May 23, 2020, 11:32:20 am »
I'm sure there will be, the consequences of being precautionary in the short term however should make them more mitigable in the long term if history and past experience is anything to go by.

"Printing money" is a policy if nothing else. The consequences of that I suspect will be like social distancing where they're worsened or lessened according to timing. Countries that are eschewing printing money now and decreasing social distancing in the process may still have to print money in the future if they experience an ongoing high case rate and 2nd wave made worse by ending lockdowns and firing things up too early.  The consequence of that will make them less competitive with countries who manage to avoid that and can now stop printing money sooner causing them to grow and recover more quickly.  It's the like the V vs a U recovery but over years and perhaps decades instead of the shorter time frame we were hoping for.

The problem with printing your way out of a problem is that you are dumping tons of new currency into an economy without a corresponding increase in goods and services to justify it. More money in search of fewer goods and services equals inflation.

No one knows what kind of recovery we will have but there is growing consensus that it won't be a V. Other options are U, W and L depending on what happens with the virus.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 11:41:23 am by wilber »
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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #70 on: May 23, 2020, 01:13:44 pm »
It's still just an opinion.

We all have opinions. Some matter more than others.

Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #71 on: May 23, 2020, 01:14:29 pm »
The problem with printing your way out of a problem is that you are dumping tons of new currency into an economy without a corresponding increase in goods and services to justify it. More money in search of fewer goods and services equals inflation.

No one knows what kind of recovery we will have but there is growing consensus that it won't be a V. Other options are U, W and L depending on what happens with the virus.

If it's not going to be a V recovery, then inflation isn't a short to medium term concern.

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #72 on: May 23, 2020, 02:07:35 pm »
No one knows what kind of recovery we will have but there is growing consensus that it won't be a V. Other options are U, W and L depending on what happens with the virus.

What about a Z?  Or a Q?
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Online wilber

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #73 on: May 23, 2020, 02:55:43 pm »
If it's not going to be a V recovery, then inflation isn't a short to medium term concern.

There will be bigger things to worry about. High unemployment and reduced government revenues resulting in even more borrowing.
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Offline JMT

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Re: Conservative Party response to Coronavirus
« Reply #74 on: May 23, 2020, 03:00:39 pm »
There will be bigger things to worry about. High unemployment and reduced government revenues resulting in even more borrowing.

And there will be a cloud in every silver lining.