Author Topic: Canada's Economy Has its Strongest Growth in 17 Years  (Read 2244 times)

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Offline JMT

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Canada's Economy Has its Strongest Growth in 17 Years
« on: July 28, 2017, 03:03:40 pm »
Are Liberals just better at economics?  I mean, Conservatives claim to be great with budgeting, but, is that the same thing?  Canada seems to be doing better than it ever did under the Harper years, both pre and post great recession.  Maybe a bit a deficit to fuel some real growth isn't such a bad thing?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/growth/canadas-economic-growth-blows-past-forecasts-in-may/article35826298/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

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Offline SirJohn

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Are Liberals just better at economics?  I mean, Conservatives claim to be great with budgeting, but, is that the same thing?  Canada seems to be doing better than it ever did under the Harper years, both pre and post great recession.  Maybe a bit a deficit to fuel some real growth isn't such a bad thing?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/growth/canadas-economic-growth-blows-past-forecasts-in-may/article35826298/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

Most of that growth comes from the uptick in world oil and commodity prices - which the Liberals had absolutely nothing to do with. But just as Liberals blamed Harper for declining oil and commodity prices and their impact on the economy I'm sure they'll take credit for that reversal, however temporary it is. Tens of billions in eficit financing doesn't hurt either.

But there's a funny thing about this economic splendor. Canada's stock market basically lags the world. It's the worst performing index among all G7 nations, and something like 97 out of 100 in the world this year. As far as my stock portfolio, which is usually between 70-90% Canadian, it's now about 90% American and European. I just can't find anything in Canada worth investing in. Everything is going down except for commodities and oil, which have been bouncing up and down wildly all year on speculation. The stock market, btw, is not a reflection of the way things were, or are, but where things are expected to go.

I don't claim to be an economic genius, but it seems to me that if masses of new red tape and taxes on industry and bigger government  were the way to a better economy, we'd have discovered that by now. It's not. I expect Canada's economy to inevitably tip over as it is strangled by taxes, a burgeoning debt load, and the growth of government regulations which make it hard to start new business, esp those which are in the resources industry. Our dollar shooting up about 10% compared to the US$ is not going to help either. Ontario, in particular, is going to be a disaster as this combination, along with exploding electricity prices and a sudden politically driven increase in the minimum wage drive businesses away.

There was an interesting story in the Post today on the return to fiscal health of Quebec. Quebec began to cast away the big spending ways around the time Ontario began to really zealously embrace them. Now it has budgetary surpluses while Ontario continues to run massive deficits.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 03:54:19 pm by SirJohn »
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Offline JMT

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Just to be clear - while the growth came from health oil and gas returns, it was also broad based through the rest of the economy. 

Offline SirJohn

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Just to be clear - while the growth came from health oil and gas returns, it was also broad based through the rest of the economy.

I think you'll find a big chunk of the rest is in manufacturers and services SUPPLYING the mining and energy industries, or selling to their employees and families.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline JMT

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I think you'll find a big chunk of the rest is in manufacturers and services SUPPLYING the mining and energy industries, or selling to their employees and families.

I think you'll find I like proof.  Toronto's economy is booming.
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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I didn't give Harper gov much credit for Canada's economy surviving well the recession, and I don't give the Liberals much credit for this growth.  There's private sector and international factors that are well beyond the federal government's control that factor in to these things, along with policies that preceded both governments.

I'm sure the deficit had something to do with it.  But borrowing money and running a deficit during good economic times is terrible policy, because it has to be paid back with interest.  Since our economy has well recovered from the recession, but we're still running the lending rate at very low levels, this might end up building an economic bubble.

Right now, with a relatively healthy economy in Canada a responsible gov would further increase the lending rates and run a balanced budget or even a surplus, not a deficit.  But you can't buy votes that way because Canadians are stupid and want their handouts.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 06:56:26 pm by Moonlight Graham »
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Offline SirJohn

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A story in the Post today highlights the problems Canada faces given that it's chief economic resource is, after all, resources, and that the Liberals and NDP at various levels have continued to pile obstacles in front of developing any of it.

It should not come as any real surprise that sunny ways are a poor substitute for solid economic policy.  This week’s decision by Malaysian energy giant Petronas to abandon its plans to develop a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility on B.C.’s Pacific Coast is a devastating blow to the local and Canadian economies. British Columbia sits atop tremendous reserves of natural gas, which is a relatively low-carbon alternative to heavier fuels that are in use across Asia. Demand for LNG is high across the Pacific region, and yet Canada has not been able to complete a single LNG export project.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/national-post-view-petronas-debacle-confirms-that-canada-simply-isnt-open-for-business/wcm/e9f05ea9-8675-49cc-9faa-f97fb51a8d1c

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Offline SirJohn

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I think you'll find I like proof.  Toronto's economy is booming.

Ontario is still borrowing tens of billions a year to fuel that economy. It just 'cut' electricity prices by 25% - but only by adding another $21 billion to the debt. It's announced it is increasing the cost of labour but the downside won't happen until after the election. Its new carbon scheme adds to the already high tax burden  but again, that hasn't had an impact yet. Meanwhile, resource development has been pretty much at a standstill for years.
"When liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won't do." David Frum

Offline msj

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That's right folks, if things go well under Liberals/ABNDP/BCNDP then it is because of world commodity prices which they don't control. 

But when things go bad then it's all their fault.

Evem when things go well they could be so much better if only....

Got it?

 ::)

Lets take a closer look at LNG in BC and ignore the partisan jackassess, shall we: 

http://ow.ly/IF1y30e0t7F
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Offline kimmy

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Most of that growth comes from the uptick in world oil and commodity prices - which the Liberals had absolutely nothing to do with. But just as Liberals blamed Harper for declining oil and commodity prices and their impact on the economy I'm sure they'll take credit for that reversal, however temporary it is. Tens of billions in eficit financing doesn't hurt either.

It's always the way. If the economy does well while your guys are in charge, it's "good management". If the economy does well while the other guys are in charge, it's "external forces". If the economy does badly when your guys are in charge, it's "external forces".  If the economy does badly while the other guys are in charge, it's "bad management".

Rachel Notley's foes have been claiming that she's an inept, incompetent idiot that destroyed the economy. When Alberta leads the country in growth next year, it's going to be "she didn't do anything, she's just lucky that oil is back up."

I've come to believe that the economy as a whole is mostly guided by "external forces" and that talk of "good management" and "bad management" should be confined to things that the government has real control over.
 

 -k
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Offline SirJohn

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I've come to believe that the economy as a whole is mostly guided by "external forces" and that talk of "good management" and "bad management" should be confined to things that the government has real control over.


Absolutely. I never thought good times were Harper's doing, any more than the bad times were his. What the government does have control over is mostly the tax and regulatory environment in which business operates. And as the article I posted showed, the current environment is none too good.
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Offline kimmy

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Absolutely. I never thought good times were Harper's doing, any more than the bad times were his. What the government does have control over is mostly the tax and regulatory environment in which business operates. And as the article I posted showed, the current environment is none too good.

Given this conclusion, I've also come to be of the opinion that we should disregard promises from politicians that their brand of policies (big spending programs from lefties, big tax cuts from righties) will create jobs or boost the economy. I believe that history has demonstrated that the evidence to support either claim is actually pretty scarce. 

I don't think we actually disagree about much there.  I think we both want the government to focus its agenda (and spending) on things that fall under the general heading of "law, order, and good government" rather than attempting alter the economy with spending or tax policies. We probably just have differing ideas of what constitutes "law, order, and good government".


 -k
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Offline SirJohn

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I don't think we actually disagree about much there.  I think we both want the government to focus its agenda (and spending) on things that fall under the general heading of "law, order, and good government" rather than attempting alter the economy with spending or tax policies. We probably just have differing ideas of what constitutes "law, order, and good government".

The best which I can say about Harper was that he was a sort of unimaginative but competent accountant type who managed the books, paid the bills, and generally and capably kept the lights on and the economy running properly. Mind you, that's better than I can say about anyone else during my lifetime. Which is a sad indictment on the political class.

He did realize that the higher the taxes the more burden on people and businesses, for which I applaud him, but wasn't an idiot like American Republicans, cutting taxes so that they can't pay for necessary services and run up huge debt. He also tried, though not nearly bravely enough, to do something about the incessant delays for business caused by the bureaucracy, much of it duplicated between feds and provinces.

This is where Trudeau differs. Trudeau has no problem borrowing money unnecessarily, no thought for the danger that poses the future, and in order to placate his leftmost supporters and outflank the NDP, is piling on environmental regulations and taxes on top of regulations that seem to try to give every single small native tribe veto power over every resource or pipeline project in the country. The responsible development and transportation of resources is clearly in the national interest, no matter what anyone thinks or says or wants, and should be pushed through.

I mean, I'm all for environmental protection, but taking years and years of hearings and consultations and forms and meetings and wheedling with every small village, town or reserve anywhere within several hundred miles, paying them off one by one to get 'buy in' is simply causing companies to go elsewhere and take their investment and jobs with them.
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Offline msj

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I don't think we actually disagree about much there.  I think we both want the government to focus its agenda (and spending) on things that fall under the general heading of "law, order, and good government" rather than attempting alter the economy with spending or tax policies. We probably just have differing ideas of what constitutes "law, order, and good government".


 -k

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Offline JMT

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I think that government plays a part.  I think that most of it is external.  I still think it's great that the Trudeau Liberals, who were going to destroy Canada's economy, have arguably made enough of an impact to have the highest growth rate this millennium.
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