Author Topic: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts  (Read 7022 times)

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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #150 on: April 23, 2020, 11:03:28 am »
you speak of funny... the funny is you trying to parse/wordsmith/craft something... anything... to counter a waldo point - you going so far as to imagine the waldo touts a gotcha! It ain't happening here, but keep on trying!

given your expressed 'tightness' with, as you say, "Dr Henry's statisticians and analysts and data crunchers", perhaps you could bring notice to the apparent unreleased methodology that arrived at the 30% interaction figure. Other than mentioning a reliance upon Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, the waldo's crack research team hasn't found any released details as to how the 30% figure has been arrived at. Wait, let me check with the team again for an update.............. nope, the team hasn't found any new info to help interested parties better understand and gain confidence in that 30% figure. Like you member kimmy, those who blindly and so willingly accept what's easily spoon-fed to them... and so easily digested, clearly have no curiosity or interest in such things!

note: the waldo provided 2 (of 5) category snapshot examples of the Reports data - strictly informative transfer. Most certainly the waldo didn't intend to bring forward yet another member kimmy wigOut moment where she rails on about "sciency looking"!  ;D

I place much more trust in Dr Henry's crack team than Dr Waldo's crackhead team.    I'm sure most do... the level of buy-in for the social distancing measures demonstrates a high level of public trust.   The notion that the public won't trust their assessment seems unfounded.

And given the stated 50% mobility figure, the 30% contacts estimate is probably very conservative, given the kind of activities that are closed and the social distancing measures in place for things that remain open.

I've done university level science, math, and statistics. I'm very comfortable with graphs and all other sciency-looking things. And unlike some I'm well-equipped to assess whether they're supporting the claims that the waldo purports them to.

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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #151 on: April 23, 2020, 11:07:49 am »
whatever gibberish you're trying to impart here, the waldo is keen to showcase your own... contradictory... statements. You're quite accepting to interpreting 'new normal' in your own self-serving manner - of course you are!

There's no contradiction. As Health Minister Dix points out, a "new normal" has yet to be defined. For the WHO conditions to be contingent upon our ability to adapt to some circumstance that hasn't even been defined is just nonsensical.  Nonetheless, Canadians have shown that we are "empowered and educated" to adapt to whatever conditions might be set.

I notice that you declined to specify which of the conditions you specified haven't been met. I can only assume you agree we meet all of them.

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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #152 on: April 23, 2020, 11:19:44 am »
never said it was something for Dr. Henry (the Provincial Medical Health Officer) to be concerned with - how/why would it be? As I said, it speaks to influencing the viability of a business opening up and staying open. In any case, I expect government assistance monies won't be so readily available once restrictions begin to be removed - the price of doing business!

Government assistance isn't going to keep businesses alive for long anyway.  They can't live forever on interest free loans (if they even qualify). For many businesses if they're not open soon they're not going to open ever.  Survey of Toronto businesses:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6851513/toronto-businesses-landlords-survey-coronavirus/

 -k
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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #153 on: April 23, 2020, 11:25:35 am »
yabut you/we were talking of B.C.; hence my reference to 250... to 50. But thanks for verifying my reference to the current B.C. ban on gatherings of over 50 people - good on ya!

My remarks didn't specify BC.  And for the majority of Canadians the limit is indeed 10 or less. 

Instead of commenting on the viability of maintaining such bans until a vaccine becomes available (quite possibly 2022 or later) you've decided to quibble over the size of gatherings being banned.  Typical waldo.

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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #154 on: April 23, 2020, 11:27:06 am »
you really need to get over your phobia of graphs... you keep referring to them as "sciency looking". In the cases you've objected to, they've simply been presentation avenues to impact some semblance of data relationship! In any case, science is your friend member kimmy - don't be afraid it! 

no - not MY {Reports} graphs; those are Google graphs... you know, the company in partnership with B.C. (Centre for Disease Control) to provide collected data to, through analysis and processing, arrive at that stated 30% interaction figure. As by name, the Reports 'Mobility Reduction' represents % change in visits to places (as segmented into 5 overall 'place categories'). The waldo never made your grandiose leap to assume an interaction estimate was based solely upon mobility reduction... that's your idiocy at play; as I stated, "the waldo trusts the data and analysis is there", to support the stated 30% estimate figure. Of course it is - it just doesn't appear to have been publicly released... yet - a release that would allow, of course, independent critical assessment of the data and analysis involved.                 

oh my, member kimmy - oh my!  ;D You've imparted such "who knew" knowledge yet you can't provide any information to answer the original waldo statement/questioning as to the methodology behind the stated 30% interaction figure... a figure which (relative to an upper-bounds 60% figure), so emboldened you as to talk of there being "room to lift restrictions". One would think such emboldenment on your part would be matched with the supporting "how" the estimate was arrived at. So, basically, other than your plaintiveWail... you gots nuthin to suggest how the 30% interaction figure was realized - to understand the methodology that determined the current estimated contact level between British Columbians is at around 30 per cent of normal. Of course, that interaction estimate is based, in part, on the Google sourced mobility reduction data I referenced.

A whole lot of typing to say that you haven't yet the methodology yet.

stating the all to obvious (even to you member kimmy, even to you), public confidence in removing current restrictions is key -  how safe will the public feel in terms of accepting the removal of certain restrictions? The key starts with full transparency in how levels of interaction estimates are arrived at; including transparency that can be imparted to a layperson level.

The public has a high level of confidence in our health department.

Even more than confidence, the public safety depends on cooperation with the restrictions. People won't cooperate forever.  Luckily as several provinces are now talking about beginning to reduce restrictions in the next month, people will start feeling that there's light at the end of the tunnel.


 -k
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 11:33:52 am by kimmy »
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Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #155 on: April 23, 2020, 11:41:45 am »
If we open up society, healthcare systems get overwhelmed, and a lot of people die. 

The current modeling coming from BC suggests that's just not true.  We can begin reducing restrictions without the system being overwhelmed.  Other provinces are looking at the same, Manitoba might be the first to start.

I don't care if you're inconvenienced.  We're all inconvenienced.  Boo hoo.

And that's just ignorant.

 -k
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Offline JMT

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #156 on: April 23, 2020, 01:14:26 pm »
The current modeling coming from BC suggests that's just not true.

The current situation in other countries shows it to be true.

Quote
And that's just ignorant.

What's ignorant is your flippant position.
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Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #157 on: April 23, 2020, 01:19:09 pm »
you speak of funny... the funny is you trying to parse/wordsmith/craft something... anything... to counter a waldo point - you going so far as to imagine the waldo touts a gotcha! It ain't happening here, but keep on trying!

given your expressed 'tightness' with, as you say, "Dr Henry's statisticians and analysts and data crunchers", perhaps you could bring notice to the apparent unreleased methodology that arrived at the 30% interaction figure. Other than mentioning a reliance upon Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, the waldo's crack research team hasn't found any released details as to how the 30% figure has been arrived at. Wait, let me check with the team again for an update.............. nope, the team hasn't found any new info to help interested parties better understand and gain confidence in that 30% figure. Like you member kimmy, those who blindly and so willingly accept what's easily spoon-fed to them... and so easily digested, clearly have no curiosity or interest in such things!

note: the waldo provided 2 (of 5) category snapshot examples of the Reports data - strictly informative transfer. Most certainly the waldo didn't intend to bring forward yet another member kimmy wigOut moment where she rails on about "sciency looking"!  ;D

... the level of buy-in for the social distancing measures demonstrates a high level of public trust. The notion that the public won't trust their assessment seems unfounded.

certainly as I said, those like you member kimmy, those who blindly and so willingly accept what's easily spoon-fed to them... and so easily digested, they'll probably be the, uhhh... first responders to your bar opening! In any case, you should probably try a few googlies (or more closely read the 'Back To Work' thread, to recognize polls show the public overwhelmingly don't want the restrictions/shutdowns to end, any time soon!
 
And given the stated 50% mobility figure, the 30% contacts estimate is probably very conservative, given the kind of activities that are closed and the social distancing measures in place for things that remain open.

again, you haven't a clue as to how that 30% figure was arrived at - you're blindly accepting it without even asking for/wanting transparency in how it was arrived at. You have absolutely no basis to speak of it being, as you have, "very conservative - probably"!

I've done university level science, math, and statistics. I'm very comfortable with graphs and all other sciency-looking things. And unlike some I'm well-equipped to assess whether they're supporting the claims that the waldo purports them to.

sure, sure - uhhh, why so defensive? ;D The way you're so taken aback by, as you're repeatedly saying, "sciency looking" stuff... and the way you absolutely failed in your recent "trend analysis", clearly shows you're better suited for the rigors of the mighty POC Squirrel!




Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #158 on: April 23, 2020, 02:03:51 pm »
Point 6-- "a new normal" is clearly bullshit, because nobody has yet defined what "a new normal" looks like
Dr Henry speaks of resuming some activities within the next few weeks, and way more socializing this summer.  Health Minister Dix speaks of finding "a new normal" over the next 12 to 18 months. Do you feel those two ideas are contradictory?  They aren't.

whatever gibberish you're trying to impart here, the waldo is keen to showcase your own... contradictory... statements. You're quite accepting to interpreting 'new normal' in your own self-serving manner - of course you are!

There's no contradiction. As Health Minister Dix points out, a "new normal" has yet to be defined. For the WHO conditions to be contingent upon our ability to adapt to some circumstance that hasn't even been defined is just nonsensical.  Nonetheless, Canadians have shown that we are "empowered and educated" to adapt to whatever conditions might be set.

like I said, in your typical self-serving way, you want to presume upon an absence of a new normal definition for B.C., while you infer the WHO has done so; has defined it based upon this single criteria point: #6. Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal - of course you are!

try this WHO statements on for size; keyword transition:
Quote
Transition to a ‘new normal’ during the COVID-19 pandemic must be guided by public health principles. Any steps to transition towards ‘a new normal’ must be guided by public health principles, together with economic and societal considerations.

stop embarrassing yourself member kimmy - just stop it! Or if you're still inclined to do so, try answering with your understanding of the readiness of B.C. to meet criteria point 2; this point: #2. Health systems are able to "detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact"

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #159 on: April 23, 2020, 02:28:08 pm »
yabut you/we were talking of B.C.; hence my reference to 250... to 50. But thanks for verifying my reference to the current B.C. ban on gatherings of over 50 people - good on ya!

My remarks didn't specify BC.  And for the majority of Canadians the limit is indeed 10 or less. 

Instead of commenting on the viability of maintaining such bans until a vaccine becomes available (quite possibly 2022 or later) you've decided to quibble over the size of gatherings being banned.  Typical waldo

quit your quibbling! If you're going to take such quibbling exception, the waldo suggests you provide explicit references to delineate when you're talking of B.C. (as is most of your emphasis) and when you're speaking more broadly - you're welcome!

as for your continued emphasis on nothing being done until a vaccine is ready, who said so? - name the names, other than yourself. You keep referring to a worst-case "2022 or later" timing; again, who said so? - name the names, other than yourself. Such an alarmist you are!

by the by, those "typical" range references speak to a year-to-18 months away - that's April 2021-to-October 2021. There's a world-wide focus on developing a vaccine now... the beginnings of an assortment of human trials have commenced. Of course, it will not be easy... and much remains unknown about the virus, notwithstanding what efficacy and effectiveness will be realized. FWIW: Status Report on an assortment of in-development vaccines
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Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #160 on: April 23, 2020, 02:42:51 pm »
you really need to get over your phobia of graphs... you keep referring to them as "sciency looking". In the cases you've objected to, they've simply been presentation avenues to impact some semblance of data relationship! In any case, science is your friend member kimmy - don't be afraid it! 

no - not MY {Reports} graphs; those are Google graphs... you know, the company in partnership with B.C. (Centre for Disease Control) to provide collected data to, through analysis and processing, arrive at that stated 30% interaction figure. As by name, the Reports 'Mobility Reduction' represents % change in visits to places (as segmented into 5 overall 'place categories'). The waldo never made your grandiose leap to assume an interaction estimate was based solely upon mobility reduction... that's your idiocy at play; as I stated, "the waldo trusts the data and analysis is there", to support the stated 30% estimate figure. Of course it is - it just doesn't appear to have been publicly released... yet - a release that would allow, of course, independent critical assessment of the data and analysis involved.                 

oh my, member kimmy - oh my!  ;D You've imparted such "who knew" knowledge yet you can't provide any information to answer the original waldo statement/questioning as to the methodology behind the stated 30% interaction figure... a figure which (relative to an upper-bounds 60% figure), so emboldened you as to talk of there being "room to lift restrictions". One would think such emboldenment on your part would be matched with the supporting "how" the estimate was arrived at. So, basically, other than your plaintiveWail... you gots nuthin to suggest how the 30% interaction figure was realized - to understand the methodology that determined the current estimated contact level between British Columbians is at around 30 per cent of normal. Of course, that interaction estimate is based, in part, on the Google sourced mobility reduction data I referenced.

A whole lot of typing to say that you haven't yet the methodology yet.

nice one! Both Alexa and Siri weren't able to decipher what you intended to say here. Now the waldo will say, you've hardly typed anything in confirming you haven't been able to ascertain the basis of/foundation for the B.C. Health Authority's determination of a supposed/claimed current 30% interaction level.

Offline Dia

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #161 on: April 25, 2020, 09:11:22 am »
So it turns out that young people who have mild covid symptoms are more prone to developing blood clots everywhere, including the brain.  These brain clots are very unusual because of the age of the victims, the size of the clot, that they also occur in veins and there may be multiple clots.   One doc noted more clots forming in real time, even as he removed the one that caused the stroke.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

If these clots don't kill you, you'll be incapacitated for a long while at least, and may never return to normal. Fortunately, it doesn't appear to be a lot of people, so far. 

Left out of death official death counts are people who die at home, after having experienced covid type symptoms. We've no idea of the age if these victims, if they had a mild case but had a covid-induced stroke or heart attack and it's unlikely authorities will know any time soon, if ever.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fdny-idUSKBN21P3KF

  https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported

I don't think there's any way of knowing, yet, the full impact of this disease and so a lot of caution is warranted, for all age groups. 

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #162 on: April 26, 2020, 12:11:03 pm »

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #163 on: April 26, 2020, 12:18:37 pm »
open up too soon without appropriate testing in place - a tale of 2 cities: Hokkaido Japan vs. Daegu South Korea

Quote
Hokkaido declared a three-week state of emergency in February that was lifted on March 19. The prefecture had begun to reopen schools and was even allowing carefully orchestrated public gatherings.

But the latest order reverses all that, asking residents once again to refrain from nonessential trips outside their homes and closing prefectural primary and secondary schools until May 6.

The directive comes amid a resurgence in virus cases throughout the country that prompted Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week to issue a state of emergency for several other prefectures, in and around the capital, Tokyo, and Osaka.

After the Daegu outbreak, the South Korean government began a massive testing program to try and track the epidemic. Japan has done the opposite.

Even now, more than three months after Japan recorded its first case, it is still only testing a tiny percentage of the population.

The major lesson to take from Hokkaido is that even if you are successful in the containment the first time around, it's difficult to isolate and maintain the containment for a long period. Unless you expand the testing capacity, it's difficult to identify community transmission and hospital transmission.

Coronavirus lockdown: Lessons from Hokkaido's second wave of infections

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #164 on: April 29, 2020, 05:37:45 pm »
March 6: Donald J. Trump says, "Anyone that needs a test, gets a test"!

huuuuge milestone today, April 29: increased emphasis on testing has resulted in the U.S. testing a grand total of 1.6% of the entire U.S. population; testing capacity is, Trump says, "fully sufficient to begin opening the country."

SlendermanKushner says: "The federal government rose to the challenge and this is a great success story and I think that that's really what needs to be told. The question shouldn't be why did it take so long, but, how did we do this so quickly?"
April 29, 2020, 22:29 GMT