Author Topic: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts  (Read 7010 times)

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Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #120 on: April 20, 2020, 11:45:24 pm »
Point 6-- "a new normal" is clearly bullshit, because nobody has yet defined what "a new normal" looks like
Dr Henry speaks of resuming some activities within the next few weeks, and way more socializing this summer.  Health Minister Dix speaks of finding "a new normal" over the next 12 to 18 months. Do you feel those two ideas are contradictory?  They aren't.

whatever gibberish you're trying to impart here, the waldo is keen to showcase your own... contradictory... statements. You're quite accepting to interpreting 'new normal' in your own self-serving manner - of course you are!

Offline kimmy

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #121 on: April 20, 2020, 11:50:12 pm »
whatever gibberish you're trying to impart here, the waldo is keen to showcase your own... contradictory... statements. You're quite accepting to interpreting 'new normal' in your own self-serving manner - of course you are!

Nonsense.  Things will be opening, but what the "new normal" will eventually be, as Minister Dix points out, will be a work in progress that develops over quite some time.

 -k
Paris - London - New York - Kim City

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #122 on: April 20, 2020, 11:57:08 pm »
member kimmy, as an aside, I expect tied to your limited corporate world employment experience, you show your complete naivety in railing on about the relatively short job loss period to-date in relation to COVID-19 shutdowns... even extending that forward to say, 6 months to a year of unemployment. Those extended periods of lost job related unemployment are not that unusual in the work history of many of the boomers you so brazenly and repeatedly denigrate.
The boomers have certainly not experienced anything like this in their lifetimes.  The nature of the steps undertaken to fight this epidemic are unlike anything seen since WWII, and the economic impact of this is being projected by every expert to be worse than anything since the Great Depression.  In short: no, the Boomers don't have anything like this in their work histories.

geezaz, the trouble you went to in NOT making your counterpoint! ;D Other than lost employment/lost wages current restrictions/shutdowns are causing, your future-casting is nothing more than navel-gazing! In the real world reality of NOW, the only concrete impact you can attest to is that same lost employment/lost wages... which, of course, is what the waldo was emphasizing. Which, by the way, is what you yourself emphasized; notwithstanding government relief measures available today to cover (some degree) of said lost wages.

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #123 on: April 21, 2020, 12:01:28 am »
Nonsense.  Things will be opening, but what the "new normal" will eventually be, as Minister Dix points out, will be a work in progress that develops over quite some time.

and yet, member kimmy chooses to, in a most contradictory manner, presume that the 'new normal' reference in the conditional, "Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal", is defined and absolute. Yet another member kimmy "OWN GOAL"!  ;D

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #124 on: April 21, 2020, 12:50:50 am »
They are projecting the anticipated rate of patients in critical care on the level of social interaction going on.  The graph shows that if we resume 100% or 80% of normal levels of social interaction, the number of cases goes through the roof.  On the other hand, lower levels of interaction-- 60% of less, results in a rate of cases that doesn't snowball and remains low enough for the healthcare system to manage quite easily, as it is doing right now.  They estimate our level of interaction is currently at the range of about 30%, so there's certainly room for some restrictions to be lifted.  And restrictions can be put back in place as required to deal with "rebound outbreaks" that they anticipate will occur.
the waldo trusts the data and analysis is there; however, my crack research team hasn't found it... sure, sure, the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports are readily available, but just how has the B.C. Health Authority used them to arrive at that current 30% level of interaction figure? Notwithstanding the most basic points that this Google "geolocation tracking" data presumes upon using Google Maps and requires people to have turned the normally off defaulted "Location History" setting on..... cause who has any concerns about privacy! So how does this possibly skew the data? Or that the reports are by generic type, rather than particular location specific (e.g. the broad/generic Retail and Recreation category). In any case, your described "room for some restrictions to be lifted" over the interaction range 30%-to-60% has no foundation without some degree of specificity in term of "room, restrictions & lifted by how much"!
Dr Henry's statisticians and analysts and data crunchers are well aware that people can turn off the geolocation features in their phones.  I haven't asked them, but I can 100% guarantee that they know this.  I have to point out that your level of pomposity and hubris here has gone from its usual level (merely obnoxious) to an astounding new height (laugh-out-lout funny, comical, self-parody).

Your notion here, that you've spotted a "gotcha" that  BC Health's data scientists and epidemiologists never thought of, reminds me of our old friend pliny (at MLW) and his notion that he'd spotted flaws in physics theory that the greatest physics scholars somehow missed for centuries.

I can't tell if you're serious or you're trying to be funny, but whichever your intent: it's funny.

"But kimmy," someone might ask. "If people can turn off the location features in their smartphone, how do we know what's really going on?"

Well, it's like this. We don't need data from every person, or even every smart phone owner, to know what impact the restrictions are having. We get lots of data from people who do have their location features enabled, and we can compare the data since the lock down to the data from before the lockdown, and see how much the lockdown is restricting people.  We can use information provided by the people who have location features enabled to make projections about how the restrictions are affecting everybody else.

you speak of funny... the funny is you trying to parse/wordsmith/craft something... anything... to counter a waldo point - you going so far as to imagine the waldo touts a gotcha! It ain't happening here, but keep on trying!

given your expressed 'tightness' with, as you say, "Dr Henry's statisticians and analysts and data crunchers", perhaps you could bring notice to the apparent unreleased methodology that arrived at the 30% interaction figure. Other than mentioning a reliance upon Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, the waldo's crack research team hasn't found any released details as to how the 30% figure has been arrived at. Wait, let me check with the team again for an update.............. nope, the team hasn't found any new info to help interested parties better understand and gain confidence in that 30% figure. Like you member kimmy, those who blindly and so willingly accept what's easily spoon-fed to them... and so easily digested, clearly have no curiosity or interest in such things!

note: the waldo provided 2 (of 5) category snapshot examples of the Reports data - strictly informative transfer. Most certainly the waldo didn't intend to bring forward yet another member kimmy wigOut moment where she rails on about "sciency looking"!  ;D

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #125 on: April 21, 2020, 02:16:05 am »
Again you post a graph and expect everybody to go "wow, that looks sciency! the waldo has really done his homework!" while hoping that nobody reads the fine print.

you really need to get over your phobia of graphs... you keep referring to them as "sciency looking". In the cases you've objected to, they've simply been presentation avenues to impact some semblance of data relationship! In any case, science is your friend member kimmy - don't be afraid it! 

Your graph tracks "mobility", while Dr Henry's analysis is based on "contacts", not "mobility".

no - not MY {Reports} graphs; those are Google graphs... you know, the company in partnership with B.C. (Centre for Disease Control) to provide collected data to, through analysis and processing, arrive at that stated 30% interaction figure. As by name, the Reports 'Mobility Reduction' represents % change in visits to places (as segmented into 5 overall 'place categories'). The waldo never made your grandiose leap to assume an interaction estimate was based solely upon mobility reduction... that's your idiocy at play; as I stated, "the waldo trusts the data and analysis is there", to support the stated 30% estimate figure. Of course it is - it just doesn't appear to have been publicly released... yet - a release that would allow, of course, independent critical assessment of the data and analysis involved.                 

"But kimmy," someone might ask. "What's the difference?"

Here's the difference. Mobility doesn't measure how much you're interacting with people.   For example: a single trip to the grocery store, since after social distancing measures were put in place, would have the same "mobility" as single a trip to the grocery store before social distancing measures.  But it would would result in fewer contacts.  Before social distancing, you're in a busier store, you're standing within a couple of feet of each other at the broccoli counter and the checkout. Since social distancing, the store is only letting so many people in at once, people are mostly taking steps to give each other space, and the checkout line has everybody spaced out by 2m. Also consider the kinds of activities that are still open and those that are closed. A trip to the local arena to see a concert could generate a huge number of contacts, a walk in the woods could generate the same "mobility" as the concert while creating zero "contacts" at all.

So while the "mobility" data might indicate that people are making just 50% as many trips as they were before the lockdown, we can also project that the amount of "contacts" has decreased by an even larger degree because of social distancing measures.

oh my, member kimmy - oh my!  ;D You've imparted such "who knew" knowledge yet you can't provide any information to answer the original waldo statement/questioning as to the methodology behind the stated 30% interaction figure... a figure which (relative to an upper-bounds 60% figure), so emboldened you as to talk of there being "room to lift restrictions". One would think such emboldenment on your part would be matched with the supporting "how" the estimate was arrived at. So, basically, other than your plaintiveWail... you gots nuthin to suggest how the 30% interaction figure was realized - to understand the methodology that determined the current estimated contact level between British Columbians is at around 30 per cent of normal. Of course, that interaction estimate is based, in part, on the Google sourced mobility reduction data I referenced.

stating the all to obvious (even to you member kimmy, even to you), public confidence in removing current restrictions is key -  how safe will the public feel in terms of accepting the removal of certain restrictions? The key starts with full transparency in how levels of interaction estimates are arrived at; including transparency that can be imparted to a layperson level.

Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #126 on: April 21, 2020, 02:23:29 am »
Do you really think it's realistic to just maintain a ban on gatherings of over 10 people until 2022?

clarification: the waldo stands to be corrected; however, my crack research team has found the original notice that banned gatherings of over 250 people... and the update notice that, given worsening circumstance, banned gatherings of over 50 people - however, the team says they haven't (yet) found the notice that reduces the gathering ban even further. In your want to get the bars/pubs back open, are you sure you're not confusing the reason they're closed; i.e., not an essential service versus a gathering ban count restriction?
Lots of places have banned gatherings over 10 people, including a number of countries and many US states. In Canada,  the ban in BC is 50, in Alberta it's 15, Newfoundland, Yukon, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan have banned gatherings over 10, Ontario and Nova Scotia have banned gatherings over 5, Nunavut has banned all gatherings, and Quebec has banned gatherings of 2 or more (gatherings of one are apparently still allowed, which is reassuring in these troubled times.)

yabut you/we were talking of B.C.; hence my reference to 250... to 50. But thanks for verifying my reference to the current B.C. ban on gatherings of over 50 people - good on ya!


Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #127 on: April 21, 2020, 02:36:44 am »
the initial focus is on keeping essential services open - determining what are essential services. Obviously reducing restrictions in terms of venue size becomes one of 'economy of scale'. By the by, how viable will those smaller 20 people venues truly be if 2m physical distancing is maintained... notwithstanding how accepting thinking 'safety conscious/concerned' people will be to visiting in the first place... and what requirements will an establishment need to meet in terms of staff protections, sanitizing , etc..
A 20 seat venue might be a 50 seat venue with some of its tables closed off to maintain distance between customers.  The viability of a business under such circumstances is a decision for the owner and staff, and isn't something Dr Henry needs to concern herself with.

never said it was something for Dr. Henry (the Provincial Medical Health Officer) to be concerned with - how/why would it be? As I said, it speaks to influencing the viability of a business opening up and staying open. In any case, I expect government assistance monies won't be so readily available once restrictions begin to be removed - the price of doing business!

Offline JMT

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #128 on: April 21, 2020, 11:22:56 am »
If we open up society, healthcare systems get overwhelmed, and a lot of people die.  I don't care if you're inconvenienced.  We're all inconvenienced.  Boo hoo.
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Offline Omni

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #129 on: April 21, 2020, 11:58:11 am »
If we open up society, healthcare systems get overwhelmed, and a lot of people die.  I don't care if you're inconvenienced.  We're all inconvenienced.  Boo hoo.

Totally agree. Health care systems here have certainly been impacted but lets hope we act sensibly enough to keep them from becoming overwhelmed. We've all seen the activity on US beaches/streets in certain states that have relaxed their safeguards where even though Trump claims physical distancing is being practiced, the videos clearly show otherwise. I suspect that we have similar groups here who would demonstrate similar dangerous activities if we let our guard down. One of the really scary issues we see popping up is that people who are infected can be asymptomatic and be passing the bug along without even knowing they have it. We need to hang back and let the specialists get a handle on this thing, especially ramping up testing so we can get the appropriate people isolated.   
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Offline wilber

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #130 on: April 21, 2020, 09:02:57 pm »
If we open up society, healthcare systems get overwhelmed, and a lot of people die.  I don't care if you're inconvenienced.  We're all inconvenienced.  Boo hoo.

For many it is much more than an inconvenience but unfortunately the virus is making the rules.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline JMT

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #131 on: April 22, 2020, 08:21:09 am »
For many it is much more than an inconvenience but unfortunately the virus is making the rules.

By comparison to people dying, it's an inconvenience.  People are being provided for. 

Offline wilber

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #132 on: April 22, 2020, 09:13:51 am »
By comparison to people dying, it's an inconvenience.  People are being provided for.

To a degree but there are a lot of small businesses that won’t survive this, people who can’t make their rent or mortgage payments, pension and retirement plans that will be in real trouble etc. Governments can only do so much and they are doing it on borrowed money with greatly reduced revenues.


We are approaching our mid seventies and while we are in good health, we are high risk and really appreciate the sacrifices others are making to keep people like us alive.

« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 09:16:51 am by wilber »
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Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #133 on: April 22, 2020, 02:06:34 pm »
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Offline waldo

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Re: BACK TO WORK!! It’s just killing old farts
« Reply #134 on: April 22, 2020, 02:12:38 pm »
back to work ****!

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