If EVs were:
1) widely available
2) more affordable
You'd see way more emission reductions than a punitive carbon tax.
Now how to achieve that? Who knows?
Your right... who knows? The government doesn't have many options to manipulate the car market, and making electric vehicles cheaper would probably require government subsidies. (And many people would argue that its not the government's job to subsidize auto manufacturers (even if its with the goal of reducing carbon emissions.)
So, a carbon tax may be imperfect, but it is about the only option.
The irony, at least here in Ontario, with the price of oil being so volatile, the price of gas can drop to completely negate the effects of the Carbon tax. Which is what we've seen in the past few weeks, and we'll see again next winter when people don't drive nearly as much.
Yes, the regular changes in gas prices may overwhelm whatever carbon tax exists.
But, I think people are hoping that with a 5 cent carbon tax, people will notice that "Gee gas prices never fall below $1/litre anymore" (or whatever price point) and plan their next car purchase appropriately.