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Offline MH

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US Congress Thread...
« on: September 25, 2018, 06:58:14 am »
Yes, this gets a separate thread as the mid-terms are the most interesting US elections since the big one in 2016.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/24/politics/republican-party-favorability/index.html

Aaaand... Republican favourability is UP ???  Based on coddling the current president ?  Ok then...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

538 still says 80% chance of Democrats taking congress.

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Offline TimG

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 07:33:21 am »
538 still says 80% chance of Democrats taking congress.
538 said Hillary had 70% chance of winning. We know how that turned out...
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Offline cybercoma

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 08:26:27 am »
538 said Hillary had 70% chance of winning. We know how that turned out...
Just as probabilities work. I remind you, she won the popular vote, which is what polling is based upon.
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Offline MH

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 09:15:08 am »
And... 70% chance is not 100%.
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Offline segnosaur

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2018, 10:38:49 am »
And... 70% chance is not 100%.
Yup. Between Gerrymandering, voter supression, and a common trend for people to be apathetic towards the midterms, the Democrats certainly can't consider this election a 'slam dunk'.

Offline TimG

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2018, 10:47:20 am »
Just as probabilities work. I remind you, she won the popular vote, which is what polling is based upon.
538 does the presidential probability distribution based on a electoral college model so the 70% was the chance of winning the college. They said there was a chance that Hillary would win the popular vote but lose the college. That is how it turned out. The dems could easily lose these midterms. Over confidence is what did Hillary in (too many Dems staying home).

Offline MH

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2018, 07:17:39 pm »
538 does the presidential probability distribution based on a electoral college model so the 70% was the chance of winning the college. They said there was a chance that Hillary would win the popular vote but lose the college. That is how it turned out. The dems could easily lose these midterms. Over confidence is what did Hillary in (too many Dems staying home).

And... 70% chance is not 100%.
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Offline TimG

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2018, 07:30:50 pm »
And... 70% chance is not 100%.
What is your point?

Offline MH

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2018, 08:04:28 pm »
What is your point?

This quote: "538 said Hillary had 70% chance of winning. We know how that turned out..."

Does it make sense to you ?

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2018, 11:06:28 pm »
538 still says 80% chance of Democrats taking congress.

No, they say 80% of Dems taking the House of Reps.  Only 32% change of Dems taking the Senate because the majority of Senate seats aren't up for election because the House has elections every 2 years while Senators serve for 6 years, so the Senator elections are staggered.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline MH

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2018, 04:59:03 am »
No, they say 80% of Dems taking the House of Reps.  Only 32% change of Dems taking the Senate because the majority of Senate seats aren't up for election because the House has elections every 2 years while Senators serve for 6 years, so the Senator elections are staggered.

Sorry 'Congress' is often slang for the House of Reps.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2018, 08:19:01 am »
538 does the presidential probability distribution based on a electoral college model so the 70% was the chance of winning the college. They said there was a chance that Hillary would win the popular vote but lose the college. That is how it turned out. The dems could easily lose these midterms. Over confidence is what did Hillary in (too many Dems staying home).
Would you play Russian Roulette with a 30% chance of getting shot? That's nearly a 1/3 chance of dying. 538s model had Trump winning the electoral college nearly every third simulation. So I don't get your implied argument that they were "wrong."
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2018, 03:16:01 pm »
I really, really, really, really, really, really really hope Democrats take at least the House of Reps on Tues. 
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019
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Offline MH

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2018, 07:10:33 pm »
I really, really, really, really, really, really really hope Democrats take at least the House of Reps on Tues.

SNL had a great political ad parody.  It was Democrats saying 'we're going to have a Blue Wave !', and as the commercial progresses you notice they are not confident at all... voices shaking... trembling hands... :D  So true it hurts.

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: US Congress Thread...
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 09:21:47 pm »
So much for the blue wave?
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019