Author Topic: The Joe Biden Thread  (Read 6747 times)

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Offline MH

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #75 on: October 09, 2020, 09:27:18 am »
1) Biden is ahead of where Hillary was
2) There were high undecideds in swing states that were close, not the case now

Perhaps more importantly, Biden's lead seems to be extremely stable... with an average polling lead of between 4% and ~10%. Regardless of what happens, that doesn't seem to change... Trump does poorly on the debates, little change. Trump catches Covid, little change.

Compare that to 2016, where Hillary sometimes had a very large lead on Trump, but there was a lot more flux over the campaign, with her lead occasionally dropping to the point where her and Trump were in a virtual tie.That seems to be one of the problems... people think "Trump was supposed to lose in 2016 but won... polling is flawed!". But a 30% (heck even a 15% chance) does not mean no chance. Its no different than tossing a dice, and being surprised that it happens to come up with a 6...

Granted, there are some things that are... problematic. Republican efforts to suppress the vote for example. And the electoral college gives an advantage to Trump.

Yes, these are all good points.  Biden's lead is wide, maybe not in landslide territory but - yes - it has ticked up very steadily and slowly.