Author Topic: The Joe Biden Thread  (Read 1275 times)

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Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #90 on: October 13, 2020, 08:07:23 am »
Right now the polls seem to indicate Biden is approaching landslide territory.  Of course, at the same time 4 years ago we thought the same thing. And who knows what might happen in the next 4 weeks.  But as it stands, states that are typically swing states are looking very blue, and many states that are usually red are looking like swing states.

I was also looking at senate races today.  Right now the senate is 53-47 for the Republicans, so the Democrats need to flip minimum 3 seats.  The Republicans are almost certain to win back the Democrats' Alabama senate seat, and the Democrats appear almost certain to take the Republicans' Arizona senate seat, so that's a draw. 

But there are a number of other senate seats that are seen as possible gains for the Democrats, while few prospects for Republicans gaining seats. Polling shows the Democrats have strong chances in Maine, Colorado, and North Carolina. They are also very close in Montana, South Carolina, and Iowa. The Republicans have a competitive race in Michigan, but (aside from Alabama) that appears to be their only chance of gaining a seat.

Right now 538 has the Democrats as a slight favorite to regain control of the senate.

 -k
The numbers for Hillary weren't as high as they are for Biden. Trump had about a 1:3 chance of winning the election (ie, play Russian roulette with 2 bullets loaded between 6 chambers--Americans shot themselves in the head that night).

I think the likely outcome of this election (as of today--lines move) is Biden winning the presidency and the Republicans maintaining the Senate.

The Senate will then end up being the focus of much criticism due to its disproportionate representation. It's not meant to be representation proportional to the population, however--it's to balance state interests at the federal level. In any case, I'm seeing more and more criticism that points out that California has 2 senators representing 40 million people while the flyover states have 46 senators representing 40 million people. That kind of wildly disproportionate representation from a branch of government that was able to completely shutdown the branch that is representation by population is completely undemocratic. But then, the Republicans said the quiet part out loud this week: "democracy isn't the goal."
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Offline JMT

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #91 on: October 13, 2020, 10:13:45 am »
Representation by land is wildly undemocratic. Weíre lucky that by fluke our Senate is a mostly toothless relic.

Offline eyeball

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #92 on: October 13, 2020, 11:04:56 am »
I think the likely outcome of this election (as of today--lines move) is Biden winning the presidency and the Republicans maintaining the Senate.
Given the twists and turns of the times though...what happens if Biden catches Covid and croaks before the transition of administrations? Even if Trump loses decisively I imagine the Republicans would go ballistic at the thought of Harris picking up the reins of power like that.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #93 on: October 13, 2020, 08:42:47 pm »
Given the twists and turns of the times though...what happens if Biden catches Covid and croaks before the transition of administrations? Even if Trump loses decisively I imagine the Republicans would go ballistic at the thought of Harris picking up the reins of power like that.
What happens if a candidate dies, either immediately before or after an election, or before the president is sworn in, can be quite complex, and the rules are not always clear.

If a candidate dies before the election (but after ballots are printed) or shortly after, then the decision is made by the voters in the electoral college. The decision of what to do in that case is decided by state law... some states  have a rule that the votes go to an alternate designated by the party. Some states have rules that the electoral college votes go to whomever the VP candidate is (i.e. they would have no choice but to vote for harris.)

There is a problem if Biden dies after the electoral college votes are cast, but before congress actually counts the votes. The rules in that situation just have not been laid out.

If Biden dies after the electoral votes are counted by congress but before he is sworn in, then the regular rules of presidential succession kick in.

The Legal Eagle (a lawyer who runs a youtube channel) has a video discussing it, as does 538.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzzugWwv4-M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJxXrjsg3-M


Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #94 on: October 13, 2020, 08:56:42 pm »
Biden has full dementia.  Trump is just an a-hole.
Yeah, no. Not really.

Biden occasionally uses the wrong word. Usually he catches his mistake and corrects it right away. Republicans use that as somehow evidence of mental decline (generally ignoring the whole part where he corrects himself), when it is generally just the result of, well, being human.

Compare that with Trump....

One time, Trump was asked (by one of the pro-Trump people on Fox news) what he planned to do for a second term. A simple question, easy to answer. What does Trump do? He starts rambling, talking about the definition of the word 'experience', how he knows people, how bolton wanted to bomb people, and how he had an onion tied to his belt when he visited Shelbyville.. It was a totally incoherent, rambling mess, and he made no effort to correct himself or even address the question.  And the thing is, its actually pretty common with Trump.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/trump-hannity-interview-full-of-unintelligible-rambling.html

Then you have the time he was at a ceremony to sign a bill, and he just got up and wandered out of the room.

Now, if someone asked me, which candidate showed greater signs of mental decline, I think I would go with the candidate that ends up giving long rambling, incoherent answers to simple questions (i.e. Trump) over the candidate that occasionally makes mistakes but then corrects himself right after (i.e. Biden).
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Offline kimmy

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #95 on: October 13, 2020, 09:02:46 pm »
The numbers for Hillary weren't as high as they are for Biden. Trump had about a 1:3 chance of winning the election (ie, play Russian roulette with 2 bullets loaded between 6 chambers--Americans shot themselves in the head that night).

It's not that I don't believe the polls, it's more that I'm concerned how much impact voter suppression efforts might have. There are voter suppression efforts every US election, of course, and this year will have all the usual. But this year will also have higher than usual numbers of mail-in ballots and the administration has been doing its level best to hamper that as well.



 -k
Masked for your safety.
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Offline Montgomery

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #96 on: October 14, 2020, 12:39:46 pm »
It's not that I don't believe the polls, it's more that I'm concerned how much impact voter suppression efforts might have. There are voter suppression efforts every US election, of course, and this year will have all the usual. But this year will also have higher than usual numbers of mail-in ballots and the administration has been doing its level best to hamper that as well.




And then kimmy, the more important consideration is with how law enforcement will respond to charges of Trump's cheating. Don't miss the very likely possibility that Trump can tell the law what to do. Would Bill Barr be so bold?

Trump has already been involved in cheating in several different ways and the 'law' hasn't reacted adequately to stop the cheating and reverse its effects.

Think that through on the postal system alone to begin with.

Is there anything that's not been corrupted about their system of allowing people their democratic rights?
Do people stand in lines to vote for 5 hours and more?

Offline Shady

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #97 on: October 14, 2020, 05:57:31 pm »
Leaked emails show joe Biden was lying about not being involved in his sons shady business dealings.  Why would he lie?  What is he hiding?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/amp/
Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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Offline Shady

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Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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Offline Bubbermiley

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #99 on: October 14, 2020, 06:08:42 pm »
Hard to believe anybody actually concerned about creepy behaviour and nepotism would ever turn to Trump as an alternative to Biden.
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Offline Omni

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #100 on: October 14, 2020, 06:19:59 pm »
New sexual harassment claim made against creepy Joe Biden!
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wife-of-boston-marathon-hero-said-biden-touched-her-in-an-inappropriate-and-uncomfortable-way

Pretty flimsy story, but even if there is any validity to it, at least Joe doesn't brag about sexually harassing women like your buddy Donald does.

Maybe stop relying on tabloids, especially far right ones, for your news.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 06:49:49 pm by Omni »

Offline Bubbermiley

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #101 on: October 14, 2020, 08:26:53 pm »
Leaked emails show joe Biden was lying about not being involved in his sons shady business dealings.  Why would he lie?  What is he hiding?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/amp/
I think you might have hit rock bottom in stupid gullibility this time. This is a hilarious story. A fake laptop set up by Giuliani and Bannon no less!

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-post-hunter-joe-biden-giuliani-red-flags-disinformation-2020-10
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Offline Montgomery

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #102 on: October 15, 2020, 01:33:26 pm »
Hard to believe anybody actually concerned about creepy behaviour and nepotism would ever turn to Trump as an alternative to Biden.

Exactly! And also that it's too complicated an issue to change any of the severely lacking minds of the American voter. If they can't comprehend that Trump has done huge irreparable damage to their country, how in hell are they going to understand anything that requires nuance and rational thought?

Offline Shady

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #103 on: October 20, 2020, 07:44:27 pm »
Bad news for the Biden cult.  Both the FBI and DOJ conclude that Hunter Bidenís laptop and emails are not part of any Russian plot.

https://twitter.com/jakebgibson/status/1318675041924665344?s=21
Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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Offline Shady

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #104 on: October 20, 2020, 08:28:29 pm »
Photos of Joe Biden and Hunter Bidenís Kazakhstan oligarch business partner emerge.  Why did Joe lie about never meeting him?

https://twitter.com/danielchaitin7/status/1318665844906467333?s=21
Anti-herd is the new anti-vaxx.  Sweden did it right.
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