Author Topic: The Donald Trump Thread  (Read 4057 times)

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #450 on: July 28, 2017, 04:07:27 pm »
Priebus fired.  Shit show goes on.

Offline the_squid

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #451 on: July 28, 2017, 06:12:08 pm »
It's an agregator, so it doesn't really work the same way.

I realize that...   but its within the margin of error of any poll....  so seeing such a small change is, essentially, meaningless. 

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #452 on: July 31, 2017, 11:33:25 am »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Rasmussen now has trump under 40% so we're hitting Gerald Ford territory.  The full impact of last week's episode - the healthcare failure, firing Preibus, hiring The Mooch, the Trans ban - will only start to be felt now.

Paradoxically, the only Trump fans in my newsfeed seem to be most pissed off at the Trans ban. 

Offline MH

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Offline kimmy

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #454 on: July 31, 2017, 06:58:54 pm »


"I gotta be honest, I didn't know him that well when I hired him, I just had a gut feeling, you know? I mean, he wears nice suits, very nice suits. Good haircut, he has those dark aviator sunglasses, I like those a lot.  Fit, good looking, high-energy guy. I like guys like that. High energy, I worked with guys like that in the '80s, we got a lot done in the '80s, we did a lot of deals. Good looking wife, looks a bit like Ivanka, very attractive.  So I figured he'd be a good fit. Then he comes in and takes charge. Gets rid of Spicer, gets rid of Rince, I like that, very take charge, very high energy, lots of action.  And he did the interview with the New Yorker, talked about a lot of things, very candid, very good words, lots of good words. Very good interview. And he divorced his wife and missed the birth of his baby so that he could come be with me in Washington. That's the kind of dedication I need. That's my kind of guy.  But then I heard he gave an interview where he told people I sink 3 foot putts.  And I said what?  What is going on? And I called him up, and I said Tony! What is going on? And he said 3 foot putts. And I said No No No No No. 3 foot putts? Are you freaking kidding me, Tony? Anybody can sink 3 foot putts, Tony. You make it sound like I'm some average schmoe at the mini-golf course. I can't have you going around saying stuff like that about me. I can't have that. Tony... you're fired."

 -Trump comments on the firing of The Mooch. As I imagine it, at least. That's how it played out in my head.  I'm sure the official version is a little different, but I'm sure the truth is closer to what I wrote.




 -k
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Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #455 on: August 01, 2017, 11:17:14 am »
Well, for the better part of the past 8 years, the only thing that the republicans had to run on was "Oppose Obama!". When you build your politics around obstructionism its hard to bring anything useful to the table. And now that Obama (their sole focus) is gone, the have nothing left to do but wander aimlessly.
It looks like one republican senator might agree with me...


Jeff Flake (from: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/31/my-party-is-in-denial-about-donald-trump-215442)
...we conservatives mocked Barack Obama’s failure to deliver on his pledge to change the tone in Washington even as we worked to assist with that failure. It was we conservatives who, upon Obama’s election, stated that our No. 1 priority was not advancing a conservative policy agenda but making Obama a one-term president...It was we conservatives who were largely silent when the most egregious and sustained attacks on Obama’s legitimacy were leveled by marginal figures who would later be embraced and legitimized by far too many of us. It was we conservatives who rightly and robustly asserted our constitutional prerogatives as a co-equal branch of government when a Democrat was in the White House but who, despite solemn vows to do the same in the event of a Trump presidency, have maintained an unnerving silence as instability has ensued. To carry on in the spring of 2017 as if what was happening was anything approaching normalcy required a determined suspension of critical faculties.

It should be pointed out... right now, Flake's words just seem be be empty rhetoric. He is paying lip service when he criticizes Republican's obstructionism, but it should be pointed out that he has made little attempt to actually take action. He seemed to have no problem having Gorsuch confirmed as supreme court nominee (even though his nomination came about as a result of the republican tactics that he is condemning.) And more recently he voted for the Republican health care plan. (Had he truly been troubled by Republican tactics, he should have stood with McCain and voted it down, giving a message to Republican leadership "I cannot support partisan backroom deals".)


Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #456 on: August 02, 2017, 01:32:52 pm »
I realize that...   but its within the margin of error of any poll....  so seeing such a small change is, essentially, meaningless.
That's not the way statistics work. If you have repeated independent samples from several pollsters showing the same thing, it's far more likely that's correct. Margin of error only pertains to any given poll by itself, not between polls in aggregate.

Essentially by aggregating the polls, you're putting together multiple independent samples to create a larger sample. The MoE for the aggregate would be on a much larger sample size and therefore be a lot smaller.

In other words, if a bunch of polls show the same thing, they're probably right.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 01:34:32 pm by cybercoma »

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #457 on: August 02, 2017, 01:34:04 pm »
From my Uni days, there is an issue with averaging polls too.  But I think it's ok here.  538 weights them.

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #458 on: August 03, 2017, 06:47:46 am »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The 538 has Trump at 37% approval now, with the latest poll showing 35%.

My theory is that his rockbed supporters only listen to each other, and that as some of them defect they will convince others.  My target approval for rock bottom is 26%, which is the percentage of Americans who believe the sun orbits the earth.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 12:33:06 pm by jmt18325 »

Offline kimmy

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #459 on: August 03, 2017, 09:06:23 am »
Susan Huckabee-Sanders admitted that it was totally untrue that Trump received phone calls from the Boy Scouts president congratulating him on his speech or from the president of Mexico congratulating him for security of the border.

But she insists he wasn't lying.  I am not sure how she can square that circle, but she's Mike Huckabee's little girl so she has no doubt been raised from infancy to accept contradictions without complaint.

Yep.

Also, her eyes don't point the same direction. One eye points this way, the other one points that way.



Oh by the way it's also been confirmed by Huckabee that Trump did indeed dictate Trump Jr's statement regarding the discussions with the Russians.

 -k

Offline JMT

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #460 on: August 03, 2017, 12:34:03 pm »
Just a reminder - Trump is not your boy or mine.  I'll let the boy scout President slide, because, well, it's technically correct.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #461 on: August 03, 2017, 02:28:37 pm »
Susan Huckabee-Sanders admitted that it was totally untrue that Trump received phone calls from the Boy Scouts president congratulating him on his speech or from the president of Mexico congratulating him for security of the border.
Speaking of the border...

Another leaked phone conversation between Trump and the Mexican president features Trump begging the mexican president not to say "Mexico won't pay for the wall".

From: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-mexican-president-stop-pay-wall/story?id=49009884
Pena Nieto said. “My position has been and will continue to be very firm saying that Mexico cannot pay for that wall." Trump responded,  “But you cannot say that to the press. The press is going to go with that and I cannot live with that. You cannot say that to the press because I cannot negotiate under those circumstances.” He went on, “But the fact is we are both in a little bit of a political bind because I have to have Mexico pay for the wall – I have to.” He suggested that both he and Pena Nieto publicly say they're still determining who will pay for the wall. He then threatened, "If you are going to say that Mexico is not going to pay for the wall, then I do not want to meet with you guys anymore because I cannot live with that."

Trump, master deal negotiator.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #462 on: August 03, 2017, 03:32:54 pm »
Just a reminder - Trump is not your boy or mine.  I'll let the boy scout President slide, because, well, it's technically correct.

I have no idea what this is about or means...

Offline JMT

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #463 on: August 03, 2017, 03:49:23 pm »
I have no idea what this is about or means...

I already edited the post in question.  No harm, no foul - just a friendly warning.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #464 on: August 04, 2017, 05:48:27 pm »
Susan Huckabee-Sanders
 -k
Sarah Huckabee-Sanders
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 09:16:54 pm by jmt18325 »