Author Topic: The Donald Trump Thread  (Read 52714 times)

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Offline kimmy

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #6270 on: October 19, 2020, 10:09:46 am »
Based on polling, sure it looks like Biden has this locked up.

But what of voter suppression?

Biden should win Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That'll lock him up the the vote. He can lose one of those (maybe) and still get 270.

Then he's in play for Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and Ohio. He steals any of those states from Trump then Trump needs to sweep the rest of the battleground states.

So the numbers are good. But you can't convince MAGAHeads that the polls aren't wrong. And what if any votes counted after Election Day are contested in the, soon-to-be, 6-3 SCOTUS?

Turnout is key, and with Voter Suppression tactics, who knows if all the votes even get counted on election day. I'm hopeful too, but nothing is certain.

As for the Senate. It's tough.  The Dems should steal Arizona, Colorado and Main from the GOP. But will the GOP steal Alabama back?

That leaves tight races in Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia for the Dems to try and win. Also, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina is in big trouble. Those are all "Red States" that the Dems have to break through. It's tough.

I agree with all of this.  But it does feel different from last time.  In 2016 at this point the Democrats were scheduling last-minute events in Michigan and Minnesota because they realized they had a problem. This time the Republicans have pulled their advertising buys out of battleground states to focus on trying to hang on to Florida and Georgia and Ohio.  Last time the October surprise was an FBI investigation, this time it's a dud.

Regarding the Senate... the latest data from 538 is showing Democrats with a strong chance to gain control of the Senate. Arizona, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, and possibly Iowa may flip to the Democrats, while only Alabama will flip to the Republicans. So it appears most likely that the Democrats will have 50 or 51 senate seats, and with the Vice President having a tie-breaking vote, that would be enough.

 -k
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