Author Topic: The Donald Trump Thread  (Read 60271 times)

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Offline Boges

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7155 on: March 02, 2021, 09:12:19 am »
Hey of course Trumpty dumpty still tries to claim the election was stolen from him. So nothing much new from his speech today, of course who is surprised by that? Hey where is that wingnut Shady who used to hang around here? I'm sure he's got some comments sensible people could enjoy over popcorn. :)

Gotta go to the other place.  ;)

The GOP is in a bit of a pickle. They have to stick to the "Election was Stolen" talking point in order to avoid the MAGA wrath.

But that means they don't need any level of self reflection. Something a party that lost complete control of the Federal government in one POTUS term should probably do.

They live in their own universe where information that doesn't jive with their Worldview is wrong or a lie.

Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7156 on: March 03, 2021, 02:45:24 pm »
Why the GOP can't quit Trump


Our panel study examines the characteristics of MAGA supporters, their beliefs, and what motivates them. We find that at least half of MAGA supporters tend to be White, Christian, male, over 65 years of age, retired, and earn at least $50,000 a year. Further, roughly one-third have at least a college degree. Our data suggests their commitment to Trump is unshakable, motivated by the perception of a threat to their status as the culturally dominant group.
...
Further, MAGA supporters overwhelmingly believe Trump’s election misinformation, as well as other conspiracy theories. Nearly 100 percent of MAGA supporters believe Trump’s claims that the election was stolen, and 70 percent support Trump remaining in office beyond the allowed two terms. Their distrust extends to other areas as well. They overwhelmingly agree, in proportions of 80 percent or higher, with statements suggesting that unknown elites control America and with conspiracy theories about covid-19.

MAGA supporters are also biased against Blacks, immigrants and women. They fully accept Trump’s rhetoric on these groups, downplay any obstacles faced by Black Americans, view immigration as a threat to U.S. laws and culture and agree women are seeking special favors, or worse, are trying to control men.

What explains MAGA supporters’ commitment to Trump and his conspiratorial and racist views? The answer is “status threat,” or the belief that one’s way of life or status is undermined by social and cultural change. As we’ve shown elsewhere, those who are attracted to reactionary movements like MAGA are often motivated by anxiety about possible cultural dispossession — seeing their social and cultural dominance eclipsed by other groups.[/quote]

And yet some people still think MAGA is about populist economic issues.
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Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7157 on: March 03, 2021, 05:23:37 pm »
I admit that I lapse into that idea also.

Who do the rust belt poor vote for then ?  Their states are solidly red.

But - yes - status threat makes sense.

Offline the_squid

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7158 on: March 03, 2021, 06:03:54 pm »

Who do the rust belt poor vote for then ?  Their states are solidly red.


They are?

MI, WI, PA voted Dem for pres.

The other 4 states went to Trump.

So, not quite. 
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7159 on: March 03, 2021, 06:31:47 pm »
They are?

MI, WI, PA voted Dem for pres.

The other 4 states went to Trump.

So, not quite.

ya they are mostly swing states in the rust belt.  Working class, not coastal progressives or southern/rural hillbillies.  Steel industry and car industry folks, gotta feel bad for them no matter who is in office.

Michigan went Obama, then went red for Trump, then flipped for Biden.
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7160 on: March 03, 2021, 08:57:53 pm »
I admit that I lapse into that idea also.

Who do the rust belt poor vote for then ? Their states are solidly red.

But - yes - status threat makes sense.

Well, there's a lot of things to unpack here.

Poor people and minorities (who are often the same) don't vote as much as wealthier people. Gerrymandering to give an outsized voice to rural and exurban (and more well off and white) people is also a factor. So right away there's problems with the "poor people vote Republican" narrative.

As I've said before, it's not that there are not people who were brought in by Trump's populist messaging, but we're talking about what group(s) are the driving force behind this movement and again and again the evidence points to well-off, older whites who basically hate poor people/minorities/women/gays/immigrants. You know: a$$holes.
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Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7161 on: March 04, 2021, 05:52:05 am »
They are?

MI, WI, PA voted Dem for pres.

The other 4 states went to Trump.

So, not quite.

You are very correct.  "Rust belt" means something specific and they are not RED states.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7162 on: March 05, 2021, 07:26:43 am »
Why the GOP can't quit Trump
Interesting research, so I wanted to delve deeper. It's a panel study so it followed the same people over time. Their data collection  methods are really interesting too. Check it out:

https://sites.uw.edu/magastudy/methodology/

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7163 on: March 05, 2021, 07:59:38 am »
Interesting research, so I wanted to delve deeper. It's a panel study so it followed the same people over time. Their data collection  methods are really interesting too. Check it out:

https://sites.uw.edu/magastudy/methodology/

Very interesting - using Facebook as a way to sample MAGAs is counter-intuitive but there indeed may be more Facebook users than landline owners.  I will look at some of the findings.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7164 on: March 05, 2021, 09:10:13 am »
Very interesting - using Facebook as a way to sample MAGAs is counter-intuitive but there indeed may be more Facebook users than landline owners.  I will look at some of the findings.
Here's the trouble...how do you determine that a landline owner is a MAGA supporter? They could just deny it because they're distrustful. The creative thing with Facebook is that they can select out just those who've interacted with MAGA-related pages then narrow it down further by using political-affiliation and active voting as their criteria to weed out those doing opposition research or whatever. Facebook allowed the researchers to actively engage with people based on their interests, rather than relying on them to answer truthfully about them. Their activities and interests are documented online. That's wild.

It's also incredibly dangerous the amount of information available on people. Imagine how nefarious actors can use this. We've already seen it with the Russian targeted psyops. It's a brave new world, my man.

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7165 on: March 05, 2021, 10:08:05 am »
1. Here's the trouble...how do you determine that a landline owner is a MAGA supporter? They could just deny it because they're distrustful.

2. The creative thing with Facebook is that they can select out just those who've interacted with MAGA-related pages then narrow it down further by using political-affiliation and active voting as their criteria to weed out those doing opposition research or whatever. Facebook allowed the researchers to actively engage with people based on their interests, rather than relying on them to answer truthfully about them. Their activities and interests are documented online. That's wild.

3. It's also incredibly dangerous the amount of information available on people. Imagine how nefarious actors can use this. We've already seen it with the Russian targeted psyops. It's a brave new world, my man.

1.  You ask.  And - yes - they hang up on you because they don't trust you.  The loooong puzzle of that was answered definitively in the final podcast of Five Thirty Eight's "model talk".  Nate Silver seemingly begrudgingly acknowledged that MAGAs are ghosts - poll-wise.
2. It is both wild and yet obvious.  I have to really think about it - I guess it means you can use it to poll "TRUE" MAGAs but not for a random sample of the populace.
3. Well... read McLuhan I guess. 

Four questions.

What does the medium enhance?
What does the medium make obsolete?
What does the medium retrieve that had been obsolesced earlier?
What does the medium reverse or flip into when pushed to extremes?

Are you interested in a thread where we explore these with regards to Facebook ?  I will start one.

Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7166 on: March 05, 2021, 10:29:19 am »
Very interesting - using Facebook as a way to sample MAGAs is counter-intuitive but there indeed may be more Facebook users than landline owners.  I will look at some of the findings.

How do you figure? I don't think you'd have MAGA without Facebook.

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7167 on: March 05, 2021, 12:30:39 pm »
How do you figure? I don't think you'd have MAGA without Facebook.

Your point is spot-on but I happened to take a rigorous Stats course for survey design - for mathematicians, not social scientists - in university.  The idea of 'random sampling' was seen then as a problem of yesteryear thanks to the amazing technology of the phone. ie. landline

From a survey design perspective, it's weird to think of a software product as a potential source for a sample but ... yeah it makes total sense.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7168 on: March 05, 2021, 12:33:02 pm »
MH,

That's the thing--the study wasn't about the general populace. It was trying to understand a very specific population: MAGA Supporters. Researchers sometimes struggle with ways to gain access to populations in order to study them. The fact that MAGA Supporters footprints could be sniffed out of Facebook and the way these researchers did it was pretty interesting.

I have some experience with using Facebook Ads to find research populations and it never ceases to amaze me how much information people leave about themselves.

Granted there are certain limitations to all of this. For instance, you'll miss some people because not all MAGA folks have Facebook. However, if the people missed are randomly distributed and don't share any particular qualities that are related to the reason they're missing from Facebook then it's easily controlled for in their sampling (see for example how they had to oversample for women). The stuff they presented in this study, however, is all just descriptive statistics of the sample they created from Facebook. Interesting enough. Does it speak for ALL MAGA supporters? Seems likely unless you can come up with a compelling reason to believe that those excluded would have such radically different opinions that it would change these descriptives.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2021, 12:35:35 pm by cybercoma »

Offline MH

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Re: The Donald Trump Thread
« Reply #7169 on: March 05, 2021, 01:13:13 pm »

1. That's the thing--the study wasn't about the general populace. It was trying to understand a very specific population: MAGA Supporters. Researchers sometimes struggle with ways to gain access to populations in order to study them. The fact that MAGA Supporters footprints could be sniffed out of Facebook and the way these researchers did it was pretty interesting.

2. I have some experience with using Facebook Ads to find research populations and it never ceases to amaze me how much information people leave about themselves.

 

1. I get that... it's strange though...  you could conceivably use it to get a random sample if, say, you polled people from Fredricton via their profile also.  Just a simple mind shift.

2. I leave everything.  I feel like privacy is exploited by those in power sometimes.  Like salaries...