Author Topic: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020  (Read 4796 times)

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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #60 on: January 28, 2020, 11:11:20 pm »
I predict Trump will win again in 2020.  Biden isn't a strong enough candidate, and enough Americans will be weary of Bernie's democratic socialism.

His doing or not, Trump can just keep saying to voters "look at how well the economy has done since I was elected".

What's surprising is that Trump's approval rating is about the same as Obama's was at the same point in their 1st term (probably due to the economy in 2012), but also the same as Bush Sr and he lost: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

The election is starting to have 2004 flashbacks for sure.  An unpopular Republican unfathomable to Democrats, but the Democrat frontrunner is lukewarm and uninspiring. 

Sanders and Warren inspire their base but that's where it ends.  People supporting Biden seem to only be in it for the best to beat Trump but the 'I'm not Trump' schtick didn't work for Clinton and probably won't work for Biden either.

He either has to implode, which doesn't seem to be likely given his Teflon support, or someone like Michelle Obama steps in last minute.  Neither seem likely.

Offline Super Colin Blow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #61 on: January 28, 2020, 11:18:32 pm »
I'm afraid (more like terrified) that you're right.

How easy is it to emigrate to Canada?
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

Offline waldo

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #62 on: January 28, 2020, 11:28:51 pm »
I'm afraid you're right. And this time, the popular vote and electoral vote would coincide. Americans, at the end of day, we vote with our wallets.

the "best" government money can buy!

Offline Super Colin Blow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #63 on: January 28, 2020, 11:31:01 pm »
the "best" government money can buy!

<cash register noise>
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #64 on: January 29, 2020, 12:56:10 am »
The election is starting to have 2004 flashbacks for sure.  An unpopular Republican unfathomable to Democrats, but the Democrat frontrunner is lukewarm and uninspiring. 

That's a good point.  I mean Democrats hated Bush so much that Michael Moore released a scathing anti-Bush theatrical documentary in the election year, but Dubya still won.  Dubya still had about a 10-point higher approval rating than Trump at the same point in his first term though.

If Bush can needlessly send thousands of US soldiers to their deaths and kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqis all based on lies and get re-elected, then Trump can get re-elected.
"Nipples is one of the great minds of our time!" - Bubbermiley

Offline Super Colin Blow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #65 on: January 29, 2020, 05:29:10 am »
That's a good point.  I mean Democrats hated Bush so much that Michael Moore released a scathing anti-Bush theatrical documentary in the election year, but Dubya still won.  Dubya still had about a 10-point higher approval rating than Trump at the same point in his first term though.

If Bush can needlessly send thousands of US soldiers to their deaths and kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqis all based on lies and get re-elected, then Trump can get re-elected.

I wouldn't say "Farenheit 9 11" had any effect on the election, one way or another. Like any piece of crap by Michael Moore.
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #66 on: January 29, 2020, 06:41:50 am »

Sanders and Warren inspire their base but that's where it ends.  People supporting Biden seem to only be in it for the best to beat Trump but the 'I'm not Trump' schtick didn't work for Clinton and probably won't work for Biden either.
 

You are speaking intelligently, but basing your ideas on intuition.  I don't think that will work.

Sanders beats Trump in one on one polls.  Trump is highly unpopular.

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #67 on: January 29, 2020, 11:32:04 am »
I'm afraid (more like terrified) that you're right.

How easy is it to emigrate to Canada?

Please don't even think about it.  The last thing America needs is for a wave of level-headed emigres.


Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #68 on: January 29, 2020, 11:35:40 am »
You are speaking intelligently, but basing your ideas on intuition.  I don't think that will work.

Sanders beats Trump in one on one polls.  Trump is highly unpopular.



Sanders is very unpopular with many Democrats.  So many blame him for Clinton's loss in 2016.  He would be a highly divisive figure for Democrats, high poll numbers or not.

I know Trump is unpopular and for the life in me I can't see why anyone would support him.  But like I said, that's what many thought in 2004 as well. 


Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #69 on: January 29, 2020, 12:59:44 pm »
I don't remember the polls being off in 2004.
2016 was of course a different and terrible story but it doesn't mean we shouldn't trust polls anymore.

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #70 on: January 29, 2020, 02:25:51 pm »
I don't remember the polls being off in 2004.
2016 was of course a different and terrible story but it doesn't mean we shouldn't trust polls anymore.

The polls were all wrong in 2016.  It's crazy how wrong they were.  Clinton was up by like 5 points in Michigan in every poll leading up to the election.

Maybe there's a shame in admitting you'd vote for Trump.  Who knows.  I won't believe them this time.
"Nipples is one of the great minds of our time!" - Bubbermiley

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #71 on: January 29, 2020, 02:27:47 pm »
The polls were all wrong in 2016.  It's crazy how wrong they were.  Clinton was up by like 5 points in Michigan in every poll leading up to the election.

Maybe there's a shame in admitting you'd vote for Trump.  Who knows.  I won't believe them this time.

The polls weren't all wrong, but there were some big holes.  Those were noticed by 538 and that's why they gave Clinton the relative low % chance of winning.

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #72 on: January 29, 2020, 03:10:23 pm »
Dershowitz just basically implied that you shouldn't be able to impeach a president if that president believes they are serving in the best interests of the people. WTF? WTF? I'm sure Adolph Hitler liked to think he was serving in "the best interests of the people" or at least the non Jewish ones. I'm suggesting Trump's lawyer is either going senile or he took a fall and hit his head very hard on the ground. I'm gonna give Trudeau a call and suggest we start building a wall.

Offline wilber

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #73 on: January 29, 2020, 03:50:16 pm »
The White House has issued a formal threat to prevent Bolton from publishing his book. That should do wonders to boost its sales. I wonder if Bolton sent him a thank you note.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #74 on: January 29, 2020, 03:59:29 pm »
It appears Bolton will "testify" one way or another.